¿Qué tan probable es una guerra comercial mundial?

Fuente: Vanguard.

El anuncio reciente del presidente Donald Trump sobre los aranceles a las importaciones de acero, aluminio y una variedad de productos de consumo de China desató un frenesí de preocupación por el riesgo de una guerra comercial global. Sin embargo, Vanguard espera que el impacto económico directo por los nuevos aranceles sea mínimo. Creemos que la importancia real que tienen radica en las implicaciones más amplias y a plazo más largo para la política de comercio internacional.

Los aranceles en contexto

La administración de Trump anunció primero que iba a imponer aranceles de 25% a las importaciones de acero y 10% a las de aluminio. Estos productos en conjunto representan menos de 2% de las importaciones totales de Estados Unidos. Ese estimado aún es alto debido a que Canadá, México y otros aliados, que incluyen la Unión Europea, quedaron exentos temporalmente.

La administración anunció el 22 de marzo un paquete de aranceles y sanciones comerciales sobre los bienes importados de China. Al igual que los aranceles en el acero y el aluminio, estos impuestos probablemente afectarían solo a una pequeña porción del comercio bilateral entre las dos economías más grandes del mundo.

Para entender mejor cómo se vería una escalada de estas disputas, es útil considerar el intercambio comercial en un contexto histórico y global.

Los aranceles de Estados Unidos han estado disminuyendo desde la década de 1930 y se han mantenido por debajo de 5% durante más de cuatro décadas, tal como se muestra a continuación. De acuerdo con el último informe sobre aranceles de la Organización Mundial de Comercio, el promedio actual de aranceles en Estados Unidos es 3.5%, el segundo más bajo en el G20.

Nota: Los datos mostrados son anuales del año 1900 al año 2015.
Fuente: Comisión de Comercio Internacional de Estados Unidos

Aunque Estados Unidos tienen medidas comerciales establecidas que no son aranceles como las protecciones antidumping y por seguridad nacional, continúa siendo uno de los países menos proteccionistas del mundo junto con los miembros de la Unión Europea.

Algunos observadores del mercado hacen una extrapolación del cambio en la política de los aranceles para indicar el inicio de una guerra comercial, similar al ciclo vicioso que desencadenó la infame Ley de Aranceles de Smoot-Hawley de 1930, que redujo dramáticamente el flujo comercial y el crecimiento económico en los primeros años de la Gran Depresión. Dada la historia de reducir las barreras comerciales y conociendo los beneficios de la integración económica, Vanguard cree que es poco probable que la administración de los Estados Unidos modifique dramáticamente la política comercial debido al riesgo de alterar el crecimiento económico.

Disminuyen rápidamente los beneficios de un ligero aumento en los aranceles

Aunque damos una probabilidad baja a una guerra comercial, el análisis de Vanguard en el documento de investigación de los Asuntos macroeconómicos mundiales en 2017 («Situación comercial: es complicado») calculaba el impacto de diversas escaladas en las tensiones comerciales. Un ligero aumento en los aranceles tiene un beneficio marginal a corto plazo en la economía que los impone si no hay represalias. Sin embargo, estos beneficios se reducen rápidamente y se pueden compensar con los aranceles impuestos como represalias y la volatilidad del mercado.

Estos aumentos en los aranceles se compensarían entre sí y el resultado final podría ser precios más altos para el consumidor y crecimiento más bajo debido a una menor actividad comercial, lo que significaría una situación donde todos pierden.

Aunque es poco probable, un entorno de guerra comercial podría reducir el PIB de Estados Unidos en 1.7 puntos porcentuales y aumentar la inflación en 0.4 de un punto porcentual anualmente. En este caso, el impacto sería suficiente para obligar a la Reserva Federal de Estados Unidos a interrumpir su endurecimiento de las tasas de interés y a elegir entre suprimir el exceso de inflación y dar apoyo a un crecimiento bajo.

Los efectos secundarios de los aranceles podrían poner a Estados Unidos en una posición rezagada

Además de estas estimaciones del impacto directo en la economía estadounidense, una menor cooperación en el intercambio comercial durante los siguientes años podría dañar los flujos de inversión internacionales y poner a los Estados Unidos en una posición rezagada en vez de destacada en futuras alianzas económicas y políticas.

Los inversionistas pueden suponer de manera razonable que la retórica comercial continuará siendo una fuente de volatilidad durante 2018 a medida que la administración de Trump intenta establecer un nuevo rumbo en la política comercial sin desencadenar represalias de los socios comerciales globales de Estados Unidos.

 

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Which side of the table was given to you earlier The maid almost spilled the pastry.He sighed softly, took out the hand that was half held by her and got up and said It s getting late, Master, let s rest early.

One hundred people competed with each other on the stage, and the remaining ten people entered the second round.It seemed to be the same as now but with some changes.

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If you want to do the following again, it will have no conditions.Moreover, Li Qin told me very clearly on the phone that she will not agree to your request, no matter how much you ask.

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But once aconite is used out of the norm, it will only Sixty grams can be used to make the top.Of course, we haven t gone out to play in such a long time.

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Busy people always paid attention to the patient s ward, and those who were a little less busy gathered together in twos and threes, chatting while waiting for Du Heng, who became famous overnight in the capital s medical circle, to appear.This is what the patient s mother wants to hear most.

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But seeing his old father s condition worse than death, he felt particularly helpless.Doesn t anyone care about their idol What a bunch of scum.

Stop following him, let him pack his things and leave.Because you have a master s degree and have already had a training experience, this process can be omitted.

But after thinking about it, I decided to forget it.Such a Cbd Gummies Diabetes Reviews A Comprehensive Analysis Of Benefits And Effectiveness Cqevs Cudk 5k8i disease occurred but was not reported to the director, so the female doctor was a little Improving Sleep Quality 82luxgk With Olly Sleep Gummies With Melatonin A Comprehensive Guide Efmqt Xeiu uneasy at this time.

Dr. Du is clearly cracking down on a liar who is trying to deceive Finding Serenity With Tranquil Vibe Cbd Gummies 300mg A Kzofkg01 Comprehensive Guide To Relief And Relaxation Ispzz Atxw under the guise of Z0ss74xd Cbd Gummies 25mg Full Spectrum Ey4o a miracle doctor.I didn t want to give you a surprise. Wu Shengnan rolled his eyes at Du Heng, What kind of surprise is this It s more like a shock.

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