El anuncio reciente del presidente Donald Trump sobre los aranceles a las importaciones de acero, aluminio y una variedad de productos de consumo de China desató un frenesí de preocupación por el riesgo de una guerra comercial global. Sin embargo, Vanguard espera que el impacto económico directo por los nuevos aranceles sea mínimo. Creemos que la importancia real que tienen radica en las implicaciones más amplias y a plazo más largo para la política de comercio internacional.
Los aranceles en contexto
La administración de Trump anunció primero que iba a imponer aranceles de 25% a las importaciones de acero y 10% a las de aluminio. Estos productos en conjunto representan menos de 2% de las importaciones totales de Estados Unidos. Ese estimado aún es alto debido a que Canadá, México y otros aliados, que incluyen la Unión Europea, quedaron exentos temporalmente.
La administración anunció el 22 de marzo un paquete de aranceles y sanciones comerciales sobre los bienes importados de China. Al igual que los aranceles en el acero y el aluminio, estos impuestos probablemente afectarían solo a una pequeña porción del comercio bilateral entre las dos economías más grandes del mundo.
Para entender mejor cómo se vería una escalada de estas disputas, es útil considerar el intercambio comercial en un contexto histórico y global.
Los aranceles de Estados Unidos han estado disminuyendo desde la década de 1930 y se han mantenido por debajo de 5% durante más de cuatro décadas, tal como se muestra a continuación. De acuerdo con el último informe sobre aranceles de la Organización Mundial de Comercio, el promedio actual de aranceles en Estados Unidos es 3.5%, el segundo más bajo en el G20.
Nota: Los datos mostrados son anuales del año 1900 al año 2015.
Fuente: Comisión de Comercio Internacional de Estados Unidos
Aunque Estados Unidos tienen medidas comerciales establecidas que no son aranceles como las protecciones antidumping y por seguridad nacional, continúa siendo uno de los países menos proteccionistas del mundo junto con los miembros de la Unión Europea.
Algunos observadores del mercado hacen una extrapolación del cambio en la política de los aranceles para indicar el inicio de una guerra comercial, similar al ciclo vicioso que desencadenó la infame Ley de Aranceles de Smoot-Hawley de 1930, que redujo dramáticamente el flujo comercial y el crecimiento económico en los primeros años de la Gran Depresión. Dada la historia de reducir las barreras comerciales y conociendo los beneficios de la integración económica, Vanguard cree que es poco probable que la administración de los Estados Unidos modifique dramáticamente la política comercial debido al riesgo de alterar el crecimiento económico.
Disminuyen rápidamente los beneficios de un ligero aumento en los aranceles
Aunque damos una probabilidad baja a una guerra comercial, el análisis de Vanguard en el documento de investigación de los Asuntos macroeconómicos mundiales en 2017 («Situación comercial: es complicado») calculaba el impacto de diversas escaladas en las tensiones comerciales. Un ligero aumento en los aranceles tiene un beneficio marginal a corto plazo en la economía que los impone si no hay represalias. Sin embargo, estos beneficios se reducen rápidamente y se pueden compensar con los aranceles impuestos como represalias y la volatilidad del mercado.
Estos aumentos en los aranceles se compensarían entre sí y el resultado final podría ser precios más altos para el consumidor y crecimiento más bajo debido a una menor actividad comercial, lo que significaría una situación donde todos pierden.
Aunque es poco probable, un entorno de guerra comercial podría reducir el PIB de Estados Unidos en 1.7 puntos porcentuales y aumentar la inflación en 0.4 de un punto porcentual anualmente. En este caso, el impacto sería suficiente para obligar a la Reserva Federal de Estados Unidos a interrumpir su endurecimiento de las tasas de interés y a elegir entre suprimir el exceso de inflación y dar apoyo a un crecimiento bajo.
Los efectos secundarios de los aranceles podrían poner a Estados Unidos en una posición rezagada
Además de estas estimaciones del impacto directo en la economía estadounidense, una menor cooperación en el intercambio comercial durante los siguientes años podría dañar los flujos de inversión internacionales y poner a los Estados Unidos en una posición rezagada en vez de destacada en futuras alianzas económicas y políticas.
Los inversionistas pueden suponer de manera razonable que la retórica comercial continuará siendo una fuente de volatilidad durante 2018 a medida que la administración de Trump intenta establecer un nuevo rumbo en la política comercial sin desencadenar represalias de los socios comerciales globales de Estados Unidos.
El cambio climático es uno de los mayores desafíos de nuestro tiempo, y requiere una respuesta colectiva y urgente. La modificación genética de plantas emerge como una opción atractiva y viable en la lucha contra el cambio climático, ofreciendo la posibilidad de aumentar la capacidad de captura de carbono de manera rentable y sostenible. A medida que la investigación avanza y se exploran nuevas tecnologías, es crucial mantener un enfoque integral y colaborativo para abordar este desafío global y proteger el futuro de nuestro planeta.
Cada decodificador tiene contenido educativo almacenado precargado y 5GB de internet que mensualmente serán recargados para uso y consumo de los contenidos del programa Hogar Conectado.
Wrapped in scales, with a single horn on his head, a one eyed face, and two pointed ears, he looks a bit creepy.The woman in white stepped forward, waved her jade hand, and the strong wind blew by, revealing the colorful altar that burned to ashes, with a hint of disappointment in her expression.
Yes, elder Ye Fei casually kicked Xiao Yu off the stage and said respectfully to Tang Wuzang.Boom
In the white mist, it was as if the door to the ancient world had been opened.
Moreover, in order to prevent the other party from tracking him, Ye Fei did not go directly to the direction of the Alchemy Guild Wandan City, but went west along the Xiling Mountain, deliberately affecting the other party s judgment.Ghost Xinglan was stunned and silent. Boy, come in At this time, a voice came from deep in Tiandu Mountain, where the woman in white was retreating.
The woman said lightly. Later stage of Guiyi Realm Ye Fei couldn t help but sucked in a breath of cold air.You can keep this one for now. When walking outside, you sometimes need your identity as an alchemist.
The speed of this earth demon was extremely fast, almost beyond Ye Fei s imagination.Poor Senior Sister Mo After hearing Bai Yan s words, Ye Fei s heart ached.
This man was extremely fast. He was in front of Shangguan Xian s body in an instant and slapped him with one palm.He looked extremely free and wild. He was a young master of Yueling Palace with powerful powers.
How is this possible Let me send you the talisman and ask.He was worried about her safety and wanted to clear her name.
It s really unbelievable that the powerful Thirteen Horsemen of Mangshan were frightened away by a young man.I want him to die in the most painful way. When Ye Fei arrived, Murong Xue felt reassured.
The temperature of the flame was so high that it was beyond imagination.It s called Yeyue. When refining the elixir, you have to control the heat and temperature The old man introduced it diligently, but Ye But what Fei cared about were those spirit stones, and even Young Master Liu Qingyang frowned slightly.
This kind of magical power is very powerful. Once the magical power comes out, all the powerful people will surrender.Okay, no problem. As long as you let him go, I can do anything.
At the same time, Ye Fei attacked and killed the Immortal in Prison, which was good at spiritual power and creating illusions.Ye Fei could only resist by using the Dragon Elephant Energy as hard as he could.
Kill him, don t worry, when I really find him, I will send him to you, I want to see who it is that makes you miss him all the time.I m a little flattered Seeing this person, Ye Fei smiled.
Even if he died, he would fight with the opponent and fight with his life to save himself.What a powerful woman. The level of that spiritual weapon is probably at least the peak of the intermediate spiritual sword.
Once it is activated, the Dragon Head Tomb will really be unsafe.At his current speed, it might take him decades to reach Xiling.
Could it be that you have something to do with him Although she didn t know the conversation between Lao Wang and herself, Yulin was Always secretly observing the situation outside through the Qiankun Scroll, he couldn t help but ask at this moment.The look of pride in their eyes was beyond words. At this time, Ye Fei was extremely fast and methodical, knowing the benefits of every step.
Ah, save me At this time, a female disciple appeared with disheveled hair and blood all over her body.Sure enough, this woman s body was full of white light, and the white clothes she wore turned out to be a high quality spiritual weapon, at least the pinnacle of lower level spiritual weapons.
Lun Mountain is known as the place of fairy mountain, also known as the place where immortals are buried.Therefore, these nine days of Geng gold are not so important to them.
Miss Bai, I don t need this Chu Ling Pill now. Thank you for explaining so much to me along the way.It seems that we are really doomed this time. I just hope that thing can still help.
Nine Heavens of Soil After Lin Yu er left, Ye Fei took Bai Yan and the others to find a suitable place and released the nine day loam.I want him to die fair and square on the martial arts stage
Wei Dingguo s eyes flickered and he said calmly. Okay, great, he will definitely die in an embarrassing way.
The Spirit Escape Talisman is even more difficult to obtain.This boy is grateful for the favor of borrowing the sword, so he can help her.
And this time Ye Fei came in his true form without any hiding.How could the person in front of him be so enchanting , the endlessly tempting Bai Yan turned out to be the obese Tang Wuzang, looking at Ye Fei with a smile on his face, and Ye Fei was so frightened that he almost kicked him.
Learn more about the aura brought by the colorful ores The old man hummed quietly.Master, this is obviously a young man. Do you want the disciple to follow him When the time comes A disciple came up to the old man, with sharp eyes and a gesture of wiping his neck.
Elder, we found out. This person s voice sounds like that of a young man.However, the ferocious beast refused to let Ye Fei leave.
This Liu Qingyang is really untouchable. I still say the same thing, people of the Yin Yang Sect, listen to me, if any of you dare to touch Brother Ye today, I will make it impossible for all of you to leave Dongzhou Jiang Yulang was also angry and shouted sharply.
The archbishop, who was dressed in black, stood past the bishop who had previously presided over the prayer ceremony and looked over.The combat effectiveness of the sixth level flying units is no longer weak.
Now his plan has finally succeeded. Even if the war is over, as long as he can ensure that the production does not drop, the Golden Valley will definitely be in the palm of his hand.As for other arms, they are still the only ones left after opening routes.
Relying on teleportation, she easily cut off several heads of the opponent, and finally found an opportunity.It would be a good thing if they encounter a group of lizards.
Nearly two stories tall, the strong and huge humanoid body is made of blood red stone.Hugh, Hugh In the thin sound of breaking through the air.
The further they advance, the taller the green scaled tree becomes, and the larger the fly nest becomes.Several floating shields stood around him, as if he was about to use magic to cleanse the ground in the next second.
They really didn t follow martial ethics. If he was sprayed in the face by those venoms, and then hit by the Blazer s hammer containing the astonishing power of holy light, it would not be surprising if Zhao Hao felt that he might die on the spot.If he really enters the mage tower, he is really worried that he will not be able to withstand it.
After all, the mother worm s own combat power is not important, what is important is the strength of the bomb flying insects it produces.The Storm is powerful in all aspects, even the hull is far beyond ordinary people s imagination.
When the Star Language Territory was destroyed, they tried their best to save these transportation vehicles, otherwise it would be really over.Even though there is an almost endless army of undead outside, under the reaper of death, there is no way to get close to them in a short period of time.
Just when he was about to open his mouth to ask something, he suddenly had a splitting headache, and a huge flow of information rushed into his mind.At this time, Zhao Hao finally strengthened his confidence in his own strength.
Now that all the conditions are met, this soul drawing will naturally go smoothly.Thank you for your hard work Zhao Hao said while canceling the summons of the undead, allowing the other party to return to the blood plane.
Thinking of this, he subconsciously touched the flare in his arms with his right hand.And 400,000 is just a standard. In fact, anything more than that is not a problem.
At that time, Qin Hu felt like five thunders were striking his head.In terms of explosion alone, the destructive power of the Bomb Dragon is definitely not that exaggerated.
Compared with the other party, the Star Language Chamber of Commerce is a little behind in every aspect, and at the same time, it chose the other party in order not to make people doubt its relationship with it.They are obedient internally and strike hard externally.
So it s not that the Storm Territory doesn t have gold coins, it s that they don t want to exchange supplies for gold coins.And Bailong also began to change. Chi, chi It screamed eagerly.
But presumably when the route is opened, the level will be greatly improved.Except for Zhao Hao, who didn t take action the next day to test his idea, he continued to fight.
Wow The water parted. A sea monster that looked like a sea fish appeared in front of the Storm.There are still 20,000. After being promoted from the main level to the backbone level, not only the speed of the bomb flying dragon has been increased, but the power of the explosive bomb has been comprehensively increased several times, making its threat even more terrifying.
After the continuous breathing of the dragon s breath, Green Wing and the other four golden dragons immediately distanced themselves, completely giving their opponents no chance to counterattack.The focus is on supplies Once supplies are cut off, it will be dangerous.
After hearing that there was no change there, Zhao Hao was relieved and focused on the upcoming impact.I originally thought that the other party was eager to achieve success and would choose to take risks.
From what the other party said, we knew that Barr had used his strength in this meeting.It is true that flying at sea consumes ten times more physical energy than on land, but this weakness can be circumvented by rotating patrols.
It was just a test before, and I knew the other party s base price in my heart.Now the Holy Church and the six principalities are watching indifferently.
Well, it didn t hit him. The effect of the flying dragon riding on the face is determined by the size and weight of both parties.It seemed that the attack was not a flying creature with a wingspan of several meters, but a wind elf riding on the wind
Sharpness refers to the opponent s two sickle shaped forelimbs, which are accompanied by a layer of cyan light when swiping at high speed, which is more terrifying than ordinary weapons and directly causes defense breaking damage.
A metal staircase almost ten meters wide should be the passage to the second floor, and countless puppets walked down from there.The heads of most monsters may be their weak point, but that definitely does not include the Nine Headed Monster.
Even the Holy Church, which was sworn to be incompatible with evil, seemed to have forgotten this at this time and quietly sat back and watched the invasion of demons and undead.As agreed, I will get half of the proceeds, is that okay Zhao Hao looked at the three shareholders, wanting to know their reactions.
But leaving one thought is enough with today s thought , it will be sufficient for future deductions, so it is no problem.In fact, you don t have to throw yourself into the sea of vermilion.
No matter which one of the seven formations it is, it is not only more than enough to withstand the enemy s several Dao realms and attack together, but also can deal with top figures like Zhu Yongchen for a long time without any flaws.Mu Xiang and Qin Menglin looked at each other and immediately lowered their heads.
Many places are no different from places with prosperous humanities, but many places appear primitive and backward.Nodding secretly. What Lu Su said makes sense. After pondering for a long time, he said, What are you saying What s the proof Shi Mo stood behind Mo Shanghui and the other three people.
His voice was different from the usual erraticness, but it seemed to have an inexplicable flavor Fellow Taoist Xi Lerong, why should you be too ambitious Seizing the present is the right way.On the other hand, Gui Wujiu has grown to such an extent, and his various methods are also helped by people such as Shu Shen Yun, Miao Guan Zhi, and the Great Demon Lord.
Thinking about the scene at that time, it was obvious that such a change had never happened.Ten years later, the number ninety five has dropped to eighty one.
But after three breaths, changes appeared naturally.Should we choose to retreat temporarily and try to clean up all the remaining causes and effects of Mr.
After a cough, Chun Yuan quickly took a deep breath, calmly adjusted his breathing, and did not dare to speak again.The tone of his face gradually became darker, his eyes became narrower and narrower, giving him a wolf like look, and the atmosphere became cold and solemn.
With a sudden impulse, he immediately pursued the past.However, there are more than just these two reasons for the excitement of not being blamed, there are more important reasons.
Borrowing four altars seems overbearing , after all, it is not something as difficult as climbing to the sky.Gong Ming looked around and asked suspiciously Head of Dongfang
has already gone out Huang Xiyin nodded and said, That s right.
In the future, Gui Wu will demonstrate Taoism and inherit the heart seal for hundreds of sects, which is what it should be.What is particularly worth mentioning is that the so called different atmosphere refers to Feng Qing s movements and postures as for the blow after it was struck, it was empty and could not be seen below the Dao realm.
It seemed that the virtual and actual experience of his battle with Wen Jinyuan was passed on to Shen Xiangqin through inexplicable means.improve. The battleships in the front focus on intensive firepower and defense the firepower in the rear is output from a distance, which is the same as when infantry is fighting, the shields are in front and the bows and arrows are behind.
Although the Yueheng Sect s sect protecting formation is superb, it cannot completely stop the emergence of the power of this path.Therefore, if Bai Ling er shows off his power and defeats all the enemies in one breath, this will only double prove a goal but it will deviate from the theme.
Shen Xiangqin was originally only a thin line away from reaching the perfect state of combat power now, with the advantage of deducing thousands of moves, this line was suddenly made up.Looking at the Qi of the four people, the most brilliant one is Yu Lion.
There was a subtle eye contact, and he said sternly I know the two of you, and I have never treated you badly.It s just that now that he has great eyesight and has achieved unrivaled achievements in the world, ordinary treasures are of little significance.
Gui Wujiu and Qin Menglin looked around. Qin Menglin whispered It s the same method that I saw when I entered the world.The old man in black robe had a confused look on his face, and seemed to think that what the visitor said made sense.
After wearing each other s bodies, Fan and Meng were punched each other.After a long time, Chi Xiang said, Fellow Taoist Gui Wujiu, is your true body in that thing Gui Wujiu nodded calmly and said, That s right.
The corner of his mouth moved, as if he was smiling.of certainty. This news is of course extremely important.
It was not until half a quarter of an hour later that they could not feel the breath of Hanzhen and others.However, Leng Hua obviously came with a mission, and it is not difficult to see that his determination to clean up was more important than elsewhere.
At this moment, the face gradually became clear, it was the Purple Shang, the head of the Xuanxiao Department.With the changes in the methods practiced by the Wood Spirit clan, the Taoism has become easier.
Lin Yi, Mr. Li, Xi Zhenzi, and Wu Xuanxi are trapped in the real and illusion world by Jiang Minyi.it makes me realize the gains and losses in this position, which is not a bad thing.
As expected, he lived up to his name and had a smile on his face.Such as the human race and the demon race. In short, the higher the cultivation level, the higher the status.
When he heard about this person, he was shocked at first, and then secretly laughed, secretly thinking that Mo Shanghui was so brave.There is clearly some connection between the lower realm of Bu Zhi and what Yuan Zun said, or it can be said to be a clever coordination.
Even if he didn t say this, the three of them knew that Gong Ming had indeed brought the thing that broke the situation.As soon as he finished speaking, Huang Baili immediately stepped forward and stretched out something like a bronze plaque in his palm, with fine details engraved in it.
Then as time goes by, the other party will vaguely feel the depth and reality of the methods you use.After the Qi flowed, it immediately fell silent and stabilized very quickly.
In this mirror, such a magical image is simulated lying round and vaguely sunken it seems to be non existent, but it seems to be non existent the magic power rolls around without touching the body.However, Jiang Minyi did not trap them in her own image like she did to Yin Jiuchou and others, but let them go.
Fortunately, Ye Fei can still afford it now. After all, he has just killed the powerful man from the Yin Yang Sect who was in the Third Realm of Shen Zang and more than a dozen disciples below the Gui Yi Realm.Each small ball was transformed and refined by Najie, and the contents inside were the items being auctioned this time.
Therefore, after Ye Fei killed these people, he directly cleaned the battlefield without leaving any traces.His spiritual power was extremely powerful, and he quickly sensed a weak spiritual fluctuation in this broken sphere.
He bullied him and slapped him away, alarming everyone.He didn t mean it and it was hard for him to have an attack.
Young Master Wang, you have also seen that this man is very good at martial arts.There will even be some sideshows during the period, such as discussing the method of alchemy with each other, exchanging elixir recipes, and performing live alchemy techniques.
Although each alchemist is unruly outside, there is still a lot of respect among fellow alchemists.The spirit gathering power does not improve one s mental strength and combat power, but only speeds up the fit between the body and the spiritual power of heaven and earth.
dripping from above. How about it, I didn t embarrass you.Bitch, what kind of dagger is that The man couldn t help but get furious.
Lao Wang in the body said solemnly. Taoist Visitors from outside the territory Ye Fei couldn t help but be startled.Not to mention, the food here tasted really good, with all the colors, flavors, and flavors, which whetted Ye Fei s appetite.
Sure enough, someone looked over and glanced at Ye Fei, his eyes full of disdain, but he still replied At first glance, the little guy is just a casual cultivator who has never met him before.Come again Ye Fei hummed, and took the initiative to attack.
Said, at the same time, thinking of Wang Hao s background, he became a little worried.After ten years of hard training, it is not as good as a famous teacher.
Do you understand Lao Wang warned Ye Fei seriously.I agree with Elder Wuzang s point of view Elder Guan nodded gently in agreement.
It has not happened in a century. Currently, major media, the Internet and scientific research institutes are reporting on this matter.Lao Wang s words resolved Ye Fei s knot in his heart, and he nodded gently.
Master, since this person said so, maybe he really has the strength, why not give him a chance At this moment, Xinglan stood calmly in front of Ye Fei and said hurriedly and carefully.We d better join a force. At least the pills are enough and won t affect our cultivation.
The Jidao Saint Weapon can no longer be judged by conventional concepts.Speaking of which. Get out Han Qianqiu just said a faint word, showing the domineering nature of this person.
Is this your decision or the decision of the person behind you The woman in white asked calmly without changing her expression.Old Wang You Ye Fei also felt his scalp was a little numb.
Mr. Jiang, I will deal with him The old man in gray shouted angrily, his figure was like a stream of light, and the snow around him was suddenly stirred up by his real power, and his whole body was like a cheetah g Killing Ye Fei, his hands intertwined, forming palm shadows all over the sky.Boom boom dang dang roar for a moment, Ye Fei and Nanyun Luan were fighting together.
Fluctuation, looking at the visitor, shouted sternly.Bai Yan and Han Dong, who had already arrived on the surface, hurriedly greeted him.
This was the first time. One of them was unprepared and was kicked to the ground by the other, causing Tian Qing er to scream in surprise.Yulin said simply. Ahem, Junior Sister Yulin, is there no problem Do you want to report this matter to your sect leader Jiang Yulang stepped forward with a grin.
In addition, if the news he heard is true, Shangguan Lingyun was helping him kill those powerful Shenzang men from the Yin Yang Sect.Old guy, if it were in the past, I would have turned around and left.
Helpful. This matter will never be settled. It s still unclear who will win. Wang Hao has become a useless person, and the more important two guardians are dead.Thank you, I admit it. With his mind spinning, Ye Fei spoke directly.
This person was dressed in Taoist robes, with a wooden hairpin in his head.Instead, under Yinzi s arrangement, she found a After settling down, Yinzi has been accompanying her, and she is living a good life now.
At that time, she just wanted to enter the Ten Thousand Beast Mountain and capture She took jade horned snakes and obtained snake gall to save her father.His heart skipped a beat. Only he knew Ye Fei s secret.
Damn Ye Fei, you are responsible for all this. Otherwise, how could our Xiliang family be so passive Wang Shicang s gloomy eyes seemed to be about to burst out with anger.In the past three days, Junior Sister Bai has been guarding here secretly to protect your safety.
The red dragon was not slow to react. As soon as his mind moved, a black dragon spear with an unusually simple pattern on it, and it really looked like a black dragon when it was swung, suddenly stood in front of him.slide. Cough, cough. Yulin shook her head involuntarily and glared at Ye Fei in annoyance.
Fuente: Vanguard.
