El anuncio reciente del presidente Donald Trump sobre los aranceles a las importaciones de acero, aluminio y una variedad de productos de consumo de China desató un frenesí de preocupación por el riesgo de una guerra comercial global. Sin embargo, Vanguard espera que el impacto económico directo por los nuevos aranceles sea mínimo. Creemos que la importancia real que tienen radica en las implicaciones más amplias y a plazo más largo para la política de comercio internacional.
Los aranceles en contexto
La administración de Trump anunció primero que iba a imponer aranceles de 25% a las importaciones de acero y 10% a las de aluminio. Estos productos en conjunto representan menos de 2% de las importaciones totales de Estados Unidos. Ese estimado aún es alto debido a que Canadá, México y otros aliados, que incluyen la Unión Europea, quedaron exentos temporalmente.
La administración anunció el 22 de marzo un paquete de aranceles y sanciones comerciales sobre los bienes importados de China. Al igual que los aranceles en el acero y el aluminio, estos impuestos probablemente afectarían solo a una pequeña porción del comercio bilateral entre las dos economías más grandes del mundo.
Para entender mejor cómo se vería una escalada de estas disputas, es útil considerar el intercambio comercial en un contexto histórico y global.
Los aranceles de Estados Unidos han estado disminuyendo desde la década de 1930 y se han mantenido por debajo de 5% durante más de cuatro décadas, tal como se muestra a continuación. De acuerdo con el último informe sobre aranceles de la Organización Mundial de Comercio, el promedio actual de aranceles en Estados Unidos es 3.5%, el segundo más bajo en el G20.
Nota: Los datos mostrados son anuales del año 1900 al año 2015.
Fuente: Comisión de Comercio Internacional de Estados Unidos
Aunque Estados Unidos tienen medidas comerciales establecidas que no son aranceles como las protecciones antidumping y por seguridad nacional, continúa siendo uno de los países menos proteccionistas del mundo junto con los miembros de la Unión Europea.
Algunos observadores del mercado hacen una extrapolación del cambio en la política de los aranceles para indicar el inicio de una guerra comercial, similar al ciclo vicioso que desencadenó la infame Ley de Aranceles de Smoot-Hawley de 1930, que redujo dramáticamente el flujo comercial y el crecimiento económico en los primeros años de la Gran Depresión. Dada la historia de reducir las barreras comerciales y conociendo los beneficios de la integración económica, Vanguard cree que es poco probable que la administración de los Estados Unidos modifique dramáticamente la política comercial debido al riesgo de alterar el crecimiento económico.
Disminuyen rápidamente los beneficios de un ligero aumento en los aranceles
Aunque damos una probabilidad baja a una guerra comercial, el análisis de Vanguard en el documento de investigación de los Asuntos macroeconómicos mundiales en 2017 («Situación comercial: es complicado») calculaba el impacto de diversas escaladas en las tensiones comerciales. Un ligero aumento en los aranceles tiene un beneficio marginal a corto plazo en la economía que los impone si no hay represalias. Sin embargo, estos beneficios se reducen rápidamente y se pueden compensar con los aranceles impuestos como represalias y la volatilidad del mercado.
Estos aumentos en los aranceles se compensarían entre sí y el resultado final podría ser precios más altos para el consumidor y crecimiento más bajo debido a una menor actividad comercial, lo que significaría una situación donde todos pierden.
Aunque es poco probable, un entorno de guerra comercial podría reducir el PIB de Estados Unidos en 1.7 puntos porcentuales y aumentar la inflación en 0.4 de un punto porcentual anualmente. En este caso, el impacto sería suficiente para obligar a la Reserva Federal de Estados Unidos a interrumpir su endurecimiento de las tasas de interés y a elegir entre suprimir el exceso de inflación y dar apoyo a un crecimiento bajo.
Los efectos secundarios de los aranceles podrían poner a Estados Unidos en una posición rezagada
Además de estas estimaciones del impacto directo en la economía estadounidense, una menor cooperación en el intercambio comercial durante los siguientes años podría dañar los flujos de inversión internacionales y poner a los Estados Unidos en una posición rezagada en vez de destacada en futuras alianzas económicas y políticas.
Los inversionistas pueden suponer de manera razonable que la retórica comercial continuará siendo una fuente de volatilidad durante 2018 a medida que la administración de Trump intenta establecer un nuevo rumbo en la política comercial sin desencadenar represalias de los socios comerciales globales de Estados Unidos.
La tecnología, junto con una planificación estratégica de la fuerza laboral y la inversión en optimización de flujos de trabajo, ofrece la oportunidad de cerrar la brecha entre las grandes y pequeñas empresas en cuanto a las expectativas de cumplimiento de pedidos. La adaptación de las organizaciones a estos desafíos mediante el uso de soluciones tecnológicas será clave para lograr el pedido perfecto y asegurar la satisfacción del cliente a largo plazo.
Es imprescindible la colaboración entre ciudades: Que cada una de ellas comparta su experiencia y casos de especialización con las demás a través de un modelo lean start up.
There are no rules here, it s a place where the jungle prevails Hmph As a disciple of the Jinyang Sect, it is your misfortune to meet me At this Refined EFX CBD Review: A Comprehensive Analysis of CBD Products (fhscY)
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And all losses to Luofeng City And, there will be a generous gift for fellow Taoist Lu Yu later I can promise that the Blood Hand Sect will not offend the Cangshan Sect in the next three hundred years It is better to dissolve enemies than to make enemies, so what In fact, Hong Meng sneered in his heart and was not convinced The injury he suffered this time Do CBD Gummies Show Up on Drug Tests: Separating Fact from Fiction
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At this moment, everyone s heart is moved. Those who don t speak are not qualified.However, in front of such a sword that divided the Are Hybrid Gummies Good for Sleep: A Comprehensive Review (WnrrM)
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If he wanted to snatch food from his hands, that was simply not something he could do, so he had to give up.It seems that this Cangshan Star is nothing more than that If there is no existence of the Divine Transformation Stage, he has nothing to worry about You dare to underestimate the Tiancang Sword Formation When Feng Xin heard Lu Yu s words, she couldn t help but froze, and immediately sneered You are really a frog in the well A hint of sarcasm Navigating the Weight Loss Market: A Closer Look at Luxe Keto ACV Gummies
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Ding Heng and others ran away desperately for a long time.Plop Zhuang Yu knelt in front of Lu Yu and said with tears of gratitude Master s kindness and kindness will never be forgotten by Zhuang Yu.
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Moon Dynasty wanted to make me, Luoyue Palace, surrender.
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However, now that I have met myself, that perfect body is taking advantage of me Lu Ziji, your guess is correct I really care about your body Your body is perfect every inch and contains the charm of Taoism.She Mandisa Weight Loss: How She Shed Pounds Before Halloween 2025—6 Game-Changing Tips
is still restrained in Lu Ziji s hands and has not released it to avoid disturbing the situation.
Who is this Lu Ziji who dares to put pressure on them This time, Lu Ziji must be killed And when there was a fierce fight on the high platform of Baijiang Conference, at this moment, under the high platform, those cultivators who were under the golden elixir stage and were not qualified to ascend From Notes to Nutrition: Lizzo’s Weight Loss Harmonies
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For example, the Chiyanhu Zhao family fought hard for the Sanwei Zhenhuo before.Although Feng Zhang is so powerful, Yunyun always has a hunch that Lu Yu is even more powerful.
There are ten spiritual weapons, at least seven or eight high grade spiritual weapons To use these precious spiritual weapons and The Benefits and Effects of CBD Gummies 20mg: A Comprehensive Guide (TWloA)
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He is only half a step away from breaking through to the Transformation Stage.Why is this Lu Yu started to guess. One is hatred. I hate Fairy Feng Potian, Luoyue and others so much that I don t want to make life easier for their descendants.
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of terrifying spells, supernatural powers, and sword radiances came towards Lu Yu However, Lu Yu s expression did not change, and bright golden light suddenly appeared on his body, and he swung his sword In an instant, all magic was shattered Under Lu Yu s bright sword light, the joint attacks of the seven Yuanying stage elders of Luoyue Palace were all directly destroyed One sword breaks all laws Seeing this scene, Elder Hong and others were all shocked to the extreme and lost their voices in shock.
This is something serious. This is a misty forest with complex space and numerous forbidden spells.
It was said that the relevant leaders were so angry that they slammed the table after being reprimanded.Xu Bowen talked very seriously about what he had learned in these days.
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Then I m leaving. Okay, be careful on the road. Lin Xia in the kitchen did not look back. But the voice was a little weird, and Zhang Sheng was keenly aware that Lin Xia seemed to be holding on to something.And now
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She looked at Lin Xia seriously and said these words sincerely.
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He saw a young man walking over with these students.
Lu Yu gave He Yaner a funny look. Then Lu Yu s face returned to calmness, and he said calmly What is my pursuit He Yan er looked at Lu Yu s deep, water like eyes, and suddenly calmed down, no longer shy or thinking.He was extremely angry. Now Nao Xiaonizi is injured and her cards are exhausted.
He Yan er glanced at the old man and then explained Brother Lu Ziji is a master of formations.It s like looking at a dead person However, at this moment, Lu Yu suddenly smiled, looked at the bundle of divine ropes with interest, and said, Tsk, tsk, what a waste Seventy nine dragon tendons from Yuanying stage dragons were refined into high grade spiritual weapons.
And in the eyes of everyone with awe and admiration.Alas
After a long time, Grandpa Yun sighed and said, Lu Ziji is really mysterious, especially in this Scarlet Flame Pavilion, with his attainments in formations, it will be difficult for others to compete with him for opportunities.
Emperor Constellation Star China Hahaha, fellow Daoist Lu, I am really overjoyed to meet an old friend in a foreign land Sure enough, after Feng Yao, the leader of Cangshan Sect, learned that Lu Yu came from Emperor Star China, and even helped Feng Zhang and others to save their lives, he was shocked and overjoyed He didn t expect that they could still touch each other.
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sects.He didn t believe it. Even if he was in the Nascent Soul stage of the wilderness and his physical body was so abnormally cultivated, his soul could resist the secret treasure given by his elders If the physical body and soul are so awesome, how come they are still at the Nascent Soul stage He never thought that there are people in this world who are powerful physically and spiritually, but with low cultivation Lu Yu is the reincarnation of the Ziji Immortal Emperor.
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Lu Ziji Kai Li After seeing that the strong man who attacked Lu Yu was the ancient demon god Kai Li, He Wenxin s eyelids twitched and he became speechless The ancient demon god Kai Li is a truly top notch powerhouse.
Can Xiaoyu catch it However, what was a terrifying attack in everyone s eyes was nothing more than mediocre in Lu Yu s eyes.Elders, look for all the reinforcements and support to come over Yes Xue Yuan s face became serious.
Lu Ziji held Zhuang Yu hostage, while he chased Yun Ju on a golden elixir stage speed demon beast.Although the Cangshan Sect is all Chinese and the patron saint of Luofeng City, they still have the arrogance of immortal cultivators.
This made Zhao Hongzhuang very angry. His eyes looking at He Zhenlong were full of anger and evil aura However, he immediately restrained himself helplessly Just like He Zhenlong said, he really didn t dare This Does Apple Vinegar Help Lose Weight: 5 Millennials’ Success Post-Christmas 2025 Trend
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He had done shocking things in the secret realm of the Liuyan Lord Cave and the Western Wilderness Kingdom.Thousands of Thousand Blade Sect disciples and the God Transformation Elder couldn t help but look pale, but they still tried to comfort them.
But Lu Ziji came out of nowhere, and Tianmen was killed by him without leaving any trace.The rest of his training went smoothly, and he soon reached the level of an Immortal Emperor.
It s like a little fence in front of a tsunami, insignificant.An ant in the Nascent Soul Stage Ancient Yi, come on, take this person down The voice of the Young Demon Lord of the Ancient Demon Tribe was like thunder exploding, filled with rage Yes Young Demon Lord Following the order from the Young Demon Lord of the Ancient Demon Clan, behind him the Ancient Demon Clan s flagship, the ten demon commanders at the level of Lianxu Dao Lord who were responsible for protecting him also took action These top ten demon commanders are all powerful men in the late stage of Lianxu Daojun.
You keep saying that you are an ant in the wilderness, you, a person from the heavenly realm, don t you look good At this time, Lu Yu looked at Luo Wenxing playfully, and the corners of his mouth curved into a mocking arc, and he started to sneer.What should we do
For a moment, everyone was like ants on a hot pot, extremely anxious Just when the three top combat forces, Lu Yu, Long Hai, and Huo Dingtian, were entering, someone suddenly opened up on the Tatian Road.
It didn t even last long for a cup of tea hateful The eyes of the master of the Shuijing Sect seemed to have the roar of a long river, and he was filled with rage There were only a few Nascent Soul stage elders from the Shui Jing Sect, but two of them were beheaded by Lu Ziji.More than three years ago, he was only at the beginning of the Yuanying stage.
Why does it still have such amazing and terrifying power Someone sighed and said Perhaps this is the power of the realm of refining the void, unbelievable power For a time, everyone sighed, without the previous expectations and Finding the Best CBD Sex Gummies for Enhanced Intimacy and Pleasure (yBioa)
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Jiang Yuebai rolled up his sleeves and worked hard to dismantle it.This time, it shot directly through the external whirlpool with irresistible power and pierced the stomach wall of the Cang Molong.
My identity is not important at all. Lu Nanzhi nodded, Yes, identity is not important.The relationship between Zhengdao and the ghost clan is endless, and the relationship between the two may not be sustainable.
The three of them each found a seat and sat down cross legged to digest what Wen Miao had just told them.Ao Juan bit the black dragon s neck in one bite, and the dragon swung its tail.
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bloomed and flew out of the formation, constantly killing the ice demon.The grass swords in the forbidden area shot out and spread all over the sky, forming a majestic sea of grass swords, completely blocking all retreats around Long Ming.
I really didn t expect that three generations of the Fang family were wiped out, but there was such a solitary seedling surviving.Suddenly, the blood color on Tiannanxing s body gradually faded and quickly turned back to its original pure white color.
How dare you claim to be the reincarnation of the Sword Immortal after just these two attacks Mu Linfeng exerted his strength, and the young man in blue groaned in pain.No one is allowed to go up to this peak unless they have something to do.
The sound of ghosts crying and wolves howling echoed through the mountains and forests, and the bloody runes in the sky were about to take shape.You can use the fire dragon essence and blood to refining and improve the original nine fire talismans in the body, and then integrate them into the ghost fire and the true fire of the phoenix.
Sleep here and never open your eyes again. Jiang Yuebai recalled the introduction about Zhulong in the Dragon Palace books.He fired a magnificent talisman light to kill Jiang Yuebai, and at the same time gathered Gang Qi to protect his body.
Jiang Yuebai was about to cry, Anan, don t say anything, let s just be quiet.ran over from a distance. Are there any normal people here Jiang Yuebai asked curiously.
It seemed that there was nothing bad
right
Is that the time she put poison No, she had asked before.Suddenly, bursts of rushing bells rang from Qingcang Mountain, and the rays of light from Qingcang Mountain cut through the sky, all heading in the direction of Lingkong Mountain.
Jiang Yuebai thought for a while and said, Maybe Yi Zhengyang didn t understand magic writing, so he made a mistake in how to use the cauldron, but where did he get this cauldron Jiang Yuebai Bai looked at the mouth of the tripod.The ruins Melatonin Gummies vs Sleeping Pills: A Comprehensive Comparison (INDDN)
are behind this mountain. They have been plundered and nothing is left.
Although he is usually utilitarian and good looking, he has never had any problems with me.It makes the person itchy all over and laugh. The more they laugh, the more itchy they become.
You are diligent and smart. You see, our second manager is old and may leave soon.If she is right, she will save her own life Before she could figure out what Lu Xingyun had planned for her, Jiang Yuebai had to force herself not to rely on the Immortal Cultivation Data Panel anymore.
Jiang Yuebai concentrated on controlling the Phoenix True Fire, avoiding Lu Nazhi and Shen Huaixi, and burning all approaching bloody orchids to ashes.It was not easy for her. Lu Nazhi sat cross legged in the distance, having successfully transformed into a demon.
The two little dragonfly demons and the mountain monkeys helped manage the courtyard where she lived, and they seemed to have become her big housekeepers.Ning Zhiyuan took the opportunity to take action, splitting a small red sword into thousands, and with awe inspiring momentum, it went straight to Jiang Yuebai s life gate.
Fuente: Vanguard.
