El anuncio reciente del presidente Donald Trump sobre los aranceles a las importaciones de acero, aluminio y una variedad de productos de consumo de China desató un frenesí de preocupación por el riesgo de una guerra comercial global. Sin embargo, Vanguard espera que el impacto económico directo por los nuevos aranceles sea mínimo. Creemos que la importancia real que tienen radica en las implicaciones más amplias y a plazo más largo para la política de comercio internacional.
Los aranceles en contexto
La administración de Trump anunció primero que iba a imponer aranceles de 25% a las importaciones de acero y 10% a las de aluminio. Estos productos en conjunto representan menos de 2% de las importaciones totales de Estados Unidos. Ese estimado aún es alto debido a que Canadá, México y otros aliados, que incluyen la Unión Europea, quedaron exentos temporalmente.
La administración anunció el 22 de marzo un paquete de aranceles y sanciones comerciales sobre los bienes importados de China. Al igual que los aranceles en el acero y el aluminio, estos impuestos probablemente afectarían solo a una pequeña porción del comercio bilateral entre las dos economías más grandes del mundo.
Para entender mejor cómo se vería una escalada de estas disputas, es útil considerar el intercambio comercial en un contexto histórico y global.
Los aranceles de Estados Unidos han estado disminuyendo desde la década de 1930 y se han mantenido por debajo de 5% durante más de cuatro décadas, tal como se muestra a continuación. De acuerdo con el último informe sobre aranceles de la Organización Mundial de Comercio, el promedio actual de aranceles en Estados Unidos es 3.5%, el segundo más bajo en el G20.
Nota: Los datos mostrados son anuales del año 1900 al año 2015.
Fuente: Comisión de Comercio Internacional de Estados Unidos
Aunque Estados Unidos tienen medidas comerciales establecidas que no son aranceles como las protecciones antidumping y por seguridad nacional, continúa siendo uno de los países menos proteccionistas del mundo junto con los miembros de la Unión Europea.
Algunos observadores del mercado hacen una extrapolación del cambio en la política de los aranceles para indicar el inicio de una guerra comercial, similar al ciclo vicioso que desencadenó la infame Ley de Aranceles de Smoot-Hawley de 1930, que redujo dramáticamente el flujo comercial y el crecimiento económico en los primeros años de la Gran Depresión. Dada la historia de reducir las barreras comerciales y conociendo los beneficios de la integración económica, Vanguard cree que es poco probable que la administración de los Estados Unidos modifique dramáticamente la política comercial debido al riesgo de alterar el crecimiento económico.
Disminuyen rápidamente los beneficios de un ligero aumento en los aranceles
Aunque damos una probabilidad baja a una guerra comercial, el análisis de Vanguard en el documento de investigación de los Asuntos macroeconómicos mundiales en 2017 («Situación comercial: es complicado») calculaba el impacto de diversas escaladas en las tensiones comerciales. Un ligero aumento en los aranceles tiene un beneficio marginal a corto plazo en la economía que los impone si no hay represalias. Sin embargo, estos beneficios se reducen rápidamente y se pueden compensar con los aranceles impuestos como represalias y la volatilidad del mercado.
Estos aumentos en los aranceles se compensarían entre sí y el resultado final podría ser precios más altos para el consumidor y crecimiento más bajo debido a una menor actividad comercial, lo que significaría una situación donde todos pierden.
Aunque es poco probable, un entorno de guerra comercial podría reducir el PIB de Estados Unidos en 1.7 puntos porcentuales y aumentar la inflación en 0.4 de un punto porcentual anualmente. En este caso, el impacto sería suficiente para obligar a la Reserva Federal de Estados Unidos a interrumpir su endurecimiento de las tasas de interés y a elegir entre suprimir el exceso de inflación y dar apoyo a un crecimiento bajo.
Los efectos secundarios de los aranceles podrían poner a Estados Unidos en una posición rezagada
Además de estas estimaciones del impacto directo en la economía estadounidense, una menor cooperación en el intercambio comercial durante los siguientes años podría dañar los flujos de inversión internacionales y poner a los Estados Unidos en una posición rezagada en vez de destacada en futuras alianzas económicas y políticas.
Los inversionistas pueden suponer de manera razonable que la retórica comercial continuará siendo una fuente de volatilidad durante 2018 a medida que la administración de Trump intenta establecer un nuevo rumbo en la política comercial sin desencadenar represalias de los socios comerciales globales de Estados Unidos.
La mayor atención a temas como la sostenibilidad, el cambio climático y otros problemas ambientales ha cambiado la forma en que muchos consumidores ven sus
A young man with a dull expression and a sword on his back was walking alone in the wilderness on a moonlit night.Liu Baqiao rubbed his chin, Chen Pingan , Don t you find it strange that our Earth Immortal Sword Cultivators in Aquarius Continent have become worthless all of a sudden since they entered the upper five realms in the Wei and Jin Dynasties Chen Ping an smiled and said Maybe it s a certain card The fishing net is broken Liu Baqiao asked doubtfully How to say it Chen Ping an said It s useless to talk more, you can experience it yourself.
Zheng Juzhong said, Thank you, Master Chen, for restraining your concentration and using two more flying swords.A mountain god wearing black official robes has a powerful appearance. Although he is a member of the lewd priest of the Ling Temple, he The scene was very grand, with an eight carry sedan carried on Transform Your Body with Bioscience Keto Gummies 525 mg: A Revolutionary Weight Loss Solution
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Zhang Tao then changed his identity, unexpectedly left Qingxia Island, and transformed into The leader of the Langhuan Sect is only in the area around Shujian Lake.Chen Lingjun had a little surprise. Long lived Taoist fellow Taoist monk didn t even call his master son Why was it changed to Mountain Lord Why do you feel so.
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If nothing else goes wrong, there might even be an additional pair of Taoist companions. Sui Youyou s behavior seemed particularly withdrawn and aloof, but no one thought she was ungrateful.Seeing Yang Hua s hesitation, Chen Ping an picked up the tea cup again and said with a smile Don t be embarrassed, I ll finish the tea and leave.
Wu Yi is the eldest daughter of the old Jiao Cheng Longzhou, her Taoist name is Dongling, and she is also the founder of Ziyang Mansion.It s hard for the sword cultivator in the world to talk, Bei Ju Lu The ancestral halls on Zhoushan Mountain know best.
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Taking advantage is just like drinking a bottle of wine for free. Why not Just like Li Sheng is often called Little Master, what a good nickname, you will always be young.From the top of the mountain, people are rushing towards the wine shop. The patrol formation is very large. There are civil and military officers, goddesses and concubines, and there must be a small number 20.
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If you are happy, we are also happy, so why not Why So the young master has discussed this matter with me more than once.Wumingshi quickly took a sip of wine to calm down his shock, shuddered, and said, It hurts just looking at it, let alone the person carrying it.
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I studied it carefully What the Ma family of Yuxuan Kingdom did in front of and behind the scenes was that in those few years, the Keto Gummies Are They Safe to Take? A Comprehensive Guide to the Benefits and Risks
brothers of each house began to take action frequently, and even began to try to pass the imperial examinations of their descendants, obtain royal titles, and shine on the family lintel.
The talismans drawn in this way can be regarded as belonging to the monks. They are uniquely created by heaven and earth and are not far from the Tao.For example, Huang Luan, one of the Fourteen Old Throne Demons, has a second class cave like the Refining Palace, Guan Pavilion, Dojo, and the Ancient Broken Secret Realm.
They are proficient in eating, drinking, whoring and gambling, and even caused a lot of lives. Over the years, he has not Don t help wipe your butt.Calling Da Li State Master Cui Chan by his first name, on the mountain , especially among the younger monks, it is actually not a disrespect, but a rather weird kind of respect.
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If you have the opportunity, it s okay to help Juju and Chen Jianxian to get a disciple status, even if you don t name him for the time being.Can you understand Mandarin The child nodded. Although the Mengliang and Qingluan Kingdoms have both separated from the Dali vassal status, the Dali Mandarin is now Yayan, and the monarchs and ministers of the Mengliang Kingdom have spared no effort in promoting Yayan.
During this trip, that is, just following the young master, Xiao Mo is so easy to talk to. If it were in Wannian I had already tried to get to the bottom of it before.It s just that Qing Tong also made some sneaky moves. Qing Tong forced out a smiley expression, feeling a little embarrassed to be exposed on the spot by such a Satisfy Your Sweet Tooth with Keto Low Carb Gummy Bears: A Game-Changing Snack for a Slimmer You
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Bai Jing, like Xiao Mo, is a swordsman. She is also the master of the Wei Jia. She is about the same age as Xiao Mo, but she is older than Xiao Mo.Senior brother Cui Chan has as many as six, and the rewarders come from four continents. This shows how unpopular the embroidered tiger was in Haoran Mountain.
In fact, this is indeed the case. Many years ago, Chen Ping an once told the sword holder that I might learn some Yin Yang calculations in the future.Half of the fourteen states in the world are ready to move. Lu Chen couldn t laugh or cry, there was such a ready to move , Senior Brother Yu Talking is actually very interesting, but outsiders don t understand it.
Of course, it s easy to invite gods but hard to send them away. With Nalan Caihuan s temperament, it is estimated that she will never give up until the end of the world.
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reaches the immortal realm, he is different from other Qi practitioners. In addition to tirelessly refining swords, one is to temper the edge, and the other is to find more divine powers for his natal flying sword.
Fuente: Vanguard.
