El anuncio reciente del presidente Donald Trump sobre los aranceles a las importaciones de acero, aluminio y una variedad de productos de consumo de China desató un frenesí de preocupación por el riesgo de una guerra comercial global. Sin embargo, Vanguard espera que el impacto económico directo por los nuevos aranceles sea mínimo. Creemos que la importancia real que tienen radica en las implicaciones más amplias y a plazo más largo para la política de comercio internacional.
Los aranceles en contexto
La administración de Trump anunció primero que iba a imponer aranceles de 25% a las importaciones de acero y 10% a las de aluminio. Estos productos en conjunto representan menos de 2% de las importaciones totales de Estados Unidos. Ese estimado aún es alto debido a que Canadá, México y otros aliados, que incluyen la Unión Europea, quedaron exentos temporalmente.
La administración anunció el 22 de marzo un paquete de aranceles y sanciones comerciales sobre los bienes importados de China. Al igual que los aranceles en el acero y el aluminio, estos impuestos probablemente afectarían solo a una pequeña porción del comercio bilateral entre las dos economías más grandes del mundo.
Para entender mejor cómo se vería una escalada de estas disputas, es útil considerar el intercambio comercial en un contexto histórico y global.
Los aranceles de Estados Unidos han estado disminuyendo desde la década de 1930 y se han mantenido por debajo de 5% durante más de cuatro décadas, tal como se muestra a continuación. De acuerdo con el último informe sobre aranceles de la Organización Mundial de Comercio, el promedio actual de aranceles en Estados Unidos es 3.5%, el segundo más bajo en el G20.
Nota: Los datos mostrados son anuales del año 1900 al año 2015.
Fuente: Comisión de Comercio Internacional de Estados Unidos
Aunque Estados Unidos tienen medidas comerciales establecidas que no son aranceles como las protecciones antidumping y por seguridad nacional, continúa siendo uno de los países menos proteccionistas del mundo junto con los miembros de la Unión Europea.
Algunos observadores del mercado hacen una extrapolación del cambio en la política de los aranceles para indicar el inicio de una guerra comercial, similar al ciclo vicioso que desencadenó la infame Ley de Aranceles de Smoot-Hawley de 1930, que redujo dramáticamente el flujo comercial y el crecimiento económico en los primeros años de la Gran Depresión. Dada la historia de reducir las barreras comerciales y conociendo los beneficios de la integración económica, Vanguard cree que es poco probable que la administración de los Estados Unidos modifique dramáticamente la política comercial debido al riesgo de alterar el crecimiento económico.
Disminuyen rápidamente los beneficios de un ligero aumento en los aranceles
Aunque damos una probabilidad baja a una guerra comercial, el análisis de Vanguard en el documento de investigación de los Asuntos macroeconómicos mundiales en 2017 («Situación comercial: es complicado») calculaba el impacto de diversas escaladas en las tensiones comerciales. Un ligero aumento en los aranceles tiene un beneficio marginal a corto plazo en la economía que los impone si no hay represalias. Sin embargo, estos beneficios se reducen rápidamente y se pueden compensar con los aranceles impuestos como represalias y la volatilidad del mercado.
Estos aumentos en los aranceles se compensarían entre sí y el resultado final podría ser precios más altos para el consumidor y crecimiento más bajo debido a una menor actividad comercial, lo que significaría una situación donde todos pierden.
Aunque es poco probable, un entorno de guerra comercial podría reducir el PIB de Estados Unidos en 1.7 puntos porcentuales y aumentar la inflación en 0.4 de un punto porcentual anualmente. En este caso, el impacto sería suficiente para obligar a la Reserva Federal de Estados Unidos a interrumpir su endurecimiento de las tasas de interés y a elegir entre suprimir el exceso de inflación y dar apoyo a un crecimiento bajo.
Los efectos secundarios de los aranceles podrían poner a Estados Unidos en una posición rezagada
Además de estas estimaciones del impacto directo en la economía estadounidense, una menor cooperación en el intercambio comercial durante los siguientes años podría dañar los flujos de inversión internacionales y poner a los Estados Unidos en una posición rezagada en vez de destacada en futuras alianzas económicas y políticas.
Los inversionistas pueden suponer de manera razonable que la retórica comercial continuará siendo una fuente de volatilidad durante 2018 a medida que la administración de Trump intenta establecer un nuevo rumbo en la política comercial sin desencadenar represalias de los socios comerciales globales de Estados Unidos.
La ciudad de Bad Hersfeld también espera beneficiarse de la prueba PostBOT, ya que se proporcionará un dispositivo a un empleado municipal que distribuye el correo entre las oficinas municipales.
Superar los cuellos de botella en la cadena de suministro requiere un enfoque integral. Desde la identificación de problemas hasta la implementación de tecnologías y la contratación de personal adicional, las estrategias deben adaptarse a las necesidades específicas de cada empresa. La inversión en tecnologías innovadoras y la colaboración con expertos en logística son pasos clave hacia una cadena de suministro fluida y eficiente. Con un enfoque proactivo, las empresas pueden anticipar desafíos y garantizar un flujo continuo de productos hacia sus clientes.
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Also, you won t be here tomorrow. Let s talk to the orphanage today.
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I always drink with Brother Ye. It s a pity that your cousin, the owner of Zuihua Villa, has gone back.You are free to roam Ye Ling suddenly turned around and saw that the visitors were none other than the two sisters Lu Binglan and Lu Xinmei.
It s good now. Once we meet the demon cultivator from the East China Sea, only you and I can deal with it.Ye Ling grabbed the side of the boat and looked outside.
Remember You need to bring more capable helpers. You are from the Dongzhuling Mountain lineage.Although each time is different and she is unfamiliar with these plants and trees, she still has experience.
Seeing Tang Die pointing at Ye Ling, Lin Yusheng s eyes widened Ye Ling said calmly Ye s pseudonym is Xie Xiu Muhan.Ye Ling continued to sit cross legged and meditate, absorbing the spiritual power of the disguise elixir.
He stretched out his ferocious fins, brewed a dark blue water ball, and spit it out Bo I heard a violent sound of water, the current surged, and the waves of the water ball exploded.You can live wherever you want Look at the many houses, courtyards, and attics in Moyun Village.
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And the green striped yellow toad is squatting under the peach leaf coral tree, staring at the ice butterfly and the red fire green tailed leopard that are coming again.What kind of elixir is this Ye Ling just asked casually, presumably because of the child s knowledge of vegetation, he could only describe its shape but not the reason.
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Chapter content in the web version is slow. Please download the Haoyue Novels app to read the latest content.Their job was to build roads across mountains and rivers, build bridges, chop wood for fires, dig ditches and carry water, and build camps.
With his spiritual thoughts, his micron level perception is enough to detect any subtle changes in the alchemy furnace.In a real battle, it would not take such a long time to cause damage.
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You don t need to contact me, I will contact you with this contact card Old Ancestor Li waved his hand and said.When the time comes, let Li Yuanba enter the Green Field Cave to find resources.
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The situation in the cave was still unclear. It would be a pity if the battle destroyed anything.It will be a big deal if trouble occurs. Trouble Brother Hu continued.
The growth potential of the phantom dragon is huge.The prerequisite is to have enough cultivation resources, and the third level corpse refining resources are also extremely precious.
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The computer room space is equivalent to an independent small world, a space that has no connection with this world.Each time he refines an additional fourth grade elixir, he can accumulate an amount of Yuan for himself and his clone Li Yuanba.
When he arrived next to Li Shiming, he introduced the alchemy furnace in front of Li Shiming.
Even the screening rights in France have been sold, right He really doesn t have a theater in France Li Yanhong stared at Zhang Sheng with her eyes wide open.After all, Avery Tashi is a qualified film critic. He took a deep breath.
Everyone had different divisions of labor, and they didn t know what they were doing.Looking at the Taiwanese one, the unknown actor stood up excitedly and cheered Gao Hui suddenly stared at the professional judges on the stage.
Like rivers, big fish eat small fish, small fish eat shrimps, and those who cannot eat shrimps will starve to death.But after Zhang Sheng ended, he gradually became enemies.
After the banquet, the place was in a mess. Many villagers began to help pack things.Really Are you sure But he didn t feel tired. Not only did he not feel tired, but he was very energetic and even somewhat high spirited.
Finally, he lowered his head carefully and picked up the phone.You shouldn t have given Zhang Sheng s number to him.
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At the road intersection a little closer
Cai Sha also followed these security personnel to stop the villagers.What an ordinary face, but it really stands out from the crowd After Zhang Sheng worried about himself for a while, he pushed up his glasses, and then replied to Lin Xia with a text message.
Half of our life savings were burned by that small fire.Looking at the pages of Breaking the Sky , Zhang Sheng narrowed his eyes.
I hope you are grateful for these sufferings
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It was considered his second entry into the palace.
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Then the red carpet rolled out, and a young man in a tuxedo gently made an invitation gesture to him Get in the car, Mr.
Fuente: Vanguard.
