¿Qué tan probable es una guerra comercial mundial?

Fuente: Vanguard.

El anuncio reciente del presidente Donald Trump sobre los aranceles a las importaciones de acero, aluminio y una variedad de productos de consumo de China desató un frenesí de preocupación por el riesgo de una guerra comercial global. Sin embargo, Vanguard espera que el impacto económico directo por los nuevos aranceles sea mínimo. Creemos que la importancia real que tienen radica en las implicaciones más amplias y a plazo más largo para la política de comercio internacional.

Los aranceles en contexto

La administración de Trump anunció primero que iba a imponer aranceles de 25% a las importaciones de acero y 10% a las de aluminio. Estos productos en conjunto representan menos de 2% de las importaciones totales de Estados Unidos. Ese estimado aún es alto debido a que Canadá, México y otros aliados, que incluyen la Unión Europea, quedaron exentos temporalmente.

La administración anunció el 22 de marzo un paquete de aranceles y sanciones comerciales sobre los bienes importados de China. Al igual que los aranceles en el acero y el aluminio, estos impuestos probablemente afectarían solo a una pequeña porción del comercio bilateral entre las dos economías más grandes del mundo.

Para entender mejor cómo se vería una escalada de estas disputas, es útil considerar el intercambio comercial en un contexto histórico y global.

Los aranceles de Estados Unidos han estado disminuyendo desde la década de 1930 y se han mantenido por debajo de 5% durante más de cuatro décadas, tal como se muestra a continuación. De acuerdo con el último informe sobre aranceles de la Organización Mundial de Comercio, el promedio actual de aranceles en Estados Unidos es 3.5%, el segundo más bajo en el G20.

Nota: Los datos mostrados son anuales del año 1900 al año 2015.
Fuente: Comisión de Comercio Internacional de Estados Unidos

Aunque Estados Unidos tienen medidas comerciales establecidas que no son aranceles como las protecciones antidumping y por seguridad nacional, continúa siendo uno de los países menos proteccionistas del mundo junto con los miembros de la Unión Europea.

Algunos observadores del mercado hacen una extrapolación del cambio en la política de los aranceles para indicar el inicio de una guerra comercial, similar al ciclo vicioso que desencadenó la infame Ley de Aranceles de Smoot-Hawley de 1930, que redujo dramáticamente el flujo comercial y el crecimiento económico en los primeros años de la Gran Depresión. Dada la historia de reducir las barreras comerciales y conociendo los beneficios de la integración económica, Vanguard cree que es poco probable que la administración de los Estados Unidos modifique dramáticamente la política comercial debido al riesgo de alterar el crecimiento económico.

Disminuyen rápidamente los beneficios de un ligero aumento en los aranceles

Aunque damos una probabilidad baja a una guerra comercial, el análisis de Vanguard en el documento de investigación de los Asuntos macroeconómicos mundiales en 2017 («Situación comercial: es complicado») calculaba el impacto de diversas escaladas en las tensiones comerciales. Un ligero aumento en los aranceles tiene un beneficio marginal a corto plazo en la economía que los impone si no hay represalias. Sin embargo, estos beneficios se reducen rápidamente y se pueden compensar con los aranceles impuestos como represalias y la volatilidad del mercado.

Estos aumentos en los aranceles se compensarían entre sí y el resultado final podría ser precios más altos para el consumidor y crecimiento más bajo debido a una menor actividad comercial, lo que significaría una situación donde todos pierden.

Aunque es poco probable, un entorno de guerra comercial podría reducir el PIB de Estados Unidos en 1.7 puntos porcentuales y aumentar la inflación en 0.4 de un punto porcentual anualmente. En este caso, el impacto sería suficiente para obligar a la Reserva Federal de Estados Unidos a interrumpir su endurecimiento de las tasas de interés y a elegir entre suprimir el exceso de inflación y dar apoyo a un crecimiento bajo.

Los efectos secundarios de los aranceles podrían poner a Estados Unidos en una posición rezagada

Además de estas estimaciones del impacto directo en la economía estadounidense, una menor cooperación en el intercambio comercial durante los siguientes años podría dañar los flujos de inversión internacionales y poner a los Estados Unidos en una posición rezagada en vez de destacada en futuras alianzas económicas y políticas.

Los inversionistas pueden suponer de manera razonable que la retórica comercial continuará siendo una fuente de volatilidad durante 2018 a medida que la administración de Trump intenta establecer un nuevo rumbo en la política comercial sin desencadenar represalias de los socios comerciales globales de Estados Unidos.

 

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However, Lu Yu has not spoken yet. True Lord Pengyun of Fenglei Sect was Are CBD Gummies Legal in France? A Comprehensive Guide to CBD Regulations and Products (imMtY) anxious.Lu Ziji has always been brave and diligent. If he encounters Zhao Zhong, a mere half step Enhancing Intimacy with Love Bears Sex Gummies: A Comprehensive Guide to Improved Libido and Satisfaction (ZoRBZ) Void Refining Dao Lord, he will be timid.

Everyone knows that Liu Yan Magic Pearl can assist in cultivation, but it is used to refine powerful treasures But everyone knows that it is a huge waste and a waste of natural resources Liu Yan Magic Pearl is a rare treasure of heaven and earth.At this moment, he secretly hated Exploring CBD Oil for Sleep in New York Winter 2025: How Seniors Find Comfort with Hillstone Hemp Gummies himself, looked at Lu Yu with cold eyes, and said in a sinister tone Lu Ziji, are you Can I Take 4 Olly Sleep Gummies: A Comprehensive Guide to Safe and Effective Use (qaLVR) really going to kill me Me Lu Yu sneered and said, What else Taking Yang Rong s life would be the perfect Best CBD Gummies Sacramento - Premium Quality and Benefits way to completely conquer the brothers Zhuang Yu and Zhuang Ling er.

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In just three years, he has been promoted from the early CBD Gummies and Dementia: Understanding the Connection and Benefits stage of Uncovering the Truth: ACV Keto Gummies Scam Exposed the Yuanying stage to the complete stage of the Yuanying stage, only half a step away from the stage of transformation So amazing I have never heard of such a brilliant Tetra Bliss CBD Gummies Reviews: A Comprehensive Analysis of Efficacy and Legitimacy evil genius for tens of thousands of years Lu Most Potent CBD Gummies: Expert Reviews and User Feedback Yu s expression was calm.

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Is that so Experience the Bliss of Keoni CBD Gummy Cubes 750mg: A Game-Changing Health Supplement for a Calmer Although Lu Ziji Heli CBD Muscle Rub Reviews: A Comprehensive Analysis of its Effectiveness and Benefits (cYUFS) died, Qian Rendong was still unhappy.He is not stupid and has a sharp mind. He Efficient and Reliable CBD Gummies Shipping: A Comprehensive Guide to Choosing the Best Products immediately asked Lu Yu This is Taoist Fellow Lu, look.

If this revenge is not avenged, we will never live together At this time, the leader of the Tianwai Sect also had a Is 50 mg CBD Gummies a Lot? A Comprehensive Guide to CBD Dosage (cuxSs) cold light surging in his eyes, and the sword energy around his body shot into the sky, tearing apart the clouds in the sky Lu Ziji, if it is really you who did it, this sect leader will definitely want you to be buried with him.

It s not wrong Lu How Long Do CBD Gummies Last in Urine: Effects and Detection Times Yu Where to Get CBD Gummies: A Comprehensive Guide to Quality and Safety (XobsN) s lips curved with a trace of ridicule, and his eyes filled with purple gold divine light looked at the stone statue of Liuyan God Trimax Keto ACV Gummies Reviews: The Ultimate Guide to Keto Gummies in 2025 Lord.It was probably arranged by Fairy Luoyue who was in the stage of becoming a god, and it had the power to destroy the world.

Wuhua Sect has strict rules and always pays attention to helping each other.Lu Ziji, you actually took it all to yourself Seeing this scene, Lian Peng immediately jumped Keto Peak Keto + ACV Gummies Review: Everything You Need To Know out to question.

He is already Exipure Weight Loss: How This Supplement Can Help You Shed Pounds very old and is about to die of old age.However, gradually, a hint of amusement appeared on the corner of Lu Yu s mouth.

Lu Yu was injured and was too lazy to chase Ding Heng and others.But at this moment, if Shao Zhengqing s father, Shao Mufeng, the lord of Jingshui City, came, he probably wouldn t dare to have a relationship with Lu Ziji.

Some people say that Lord Liuyan broke through the realm of refining the void and left the Western Wasteland, even the Red Cloud Star.A stream of pure sword intent shrouded him, preventing Lu Yu from taking action.

Success is only one step away Crossing the sixth floor of the Scarlet Flame Pavilion, that is the seventh floor of the Scarlet Flame Pavilion.He was now pretending to be at the Golden Core stage and was still an outer disciple, and The Benefits of Cured Gummies for Men: A Comprehensive Guide to Enhanced Wellness (Qtghl) the people The Role of CBD Gummies for Weight Loss: A Comprehensive Guide (JnAEW) of Shenghua Sect didn t take him seriously.

Shao Zhengqing, Lu Yu and his party showed expressions of joking and disdain.Lu Yu smiled softly and said nothing. There is no need to express anything, as long as he is here, those guys from Cangshan Vyto Keto ACV Gummies: Unlock a Slimmer You with the Power of Exogenous Ketones and Apple Cider Vine Star will not think about showing off their power and acting unscrupulously Let s go Earth Med CBD Gummies Reviews: Unlocking the Power of Natural Relaxation with Hemp Extract inside The Benefits of Cloudberry Sleep Gummies for a Restful Night's Sleep (pwNyc) the Kunlun Secret Debunking Apple Cider Vinegar Weight Loss Myths: What 2025’s Top Nutritionists Say Realm to see what s inside and where the Tiantian Road is Lu Yu s eyes flashed with purple gold light, flickering on and off.

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The body of Xuanyin is inherently gifted. If it weren t for the mistreatment of Luoyue Palace, she would have broken through long ago The previous disciples of Luoyue Palace who had done bad things were directly driven away or even killed.

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