El anuncio reciente del presidente Donald Trump sobre los aranceles a las importaciones de acero, aluminio y una variedad de productos de consumo de China desató un frenesí de preocupación por el riesgo de una guerra comercial global. Sin embargo, Vanguard espera que el impacto económico directo por los nuevos aranceles sea mínimo. Creemos que la importancia real que tienen radica en las implicaciones más amplias y a plazo más largo para la política de comercio internacional.
Los aranceles en contexto
La administración de Trump anunció primero que iba a imponer aranceles de 25% a las importaciones de acero y 10% a las de aluminio. Estos productos en conjunto representan menos de 2% de las importaciones totales de Estados Unidos. Ese estimado aún es alto debido a que Canadá, México y otros aliados, que incluyen la Unión Europea, quedaron exentos temporalmente.
La administración anunció el 22 de marzo un paquete de aranceles y sanciones comerciales sobre los bienes importados de China. Al igual que los aranceles en el acero y el aluminio, estos impuestos probablemente afectarían solo a una pequeña porción del comercio bilateral entre las dos economías más grandes del mundo.
Para entender mejor cómo se vería una escalada de estas disputas, es útil considerar el intercambio comercial en un contexto histórico y global.
Los aranceles de Estados Unidos han estado disminuyendo desde la década de 1930 y se han mantenido por debajo de 5% durante más de cuatro décadas, tal como se muestra a continuación. De acuerdo con el último informe sobre aranceles de la Organización Mundial de Comercio, el promedio actual de aranceles en Estados Unidos es 3.5%, el segundo más bajo en el G20.
Nota: Los datos mostrados son anuales del año 1900 al año 2015.
Fuente: Comisión de Comercio Internacional de Estados Unidos
Aunque Estados Unidos tienen medidas comerciales establecidas que no son aranceles como las protecciones antidumping y por seguridad nacional, continúa siendo uno de los países menos proteccionistas del mundo junto con los miembros de la Unión Europea.
Algunos observadores del mercado hacen una extrapolación del cambio en la política de los aranceles para indicar el inicio de una guerra comercial, similar al ciclo vicioso que desencadenó la infame Ley de Aranceles de Smoot-Hawley de 1930, que redujo dramáticamente el flujo comercial y el crecimiento económico en los primeros años de la Gran Depresión. Dada la historia de reducir las barreras comerciales y conociendo los beneficios de la integración económica, Vanguard cree que es poco probable que la administración de los Estados Unidos modifique dramáticamente la política comercial debido al riesgo de alterar el crecimiento económico.
Disminuyen rápidamente los beneficios de un ligero aumento en los aranceles
Aunque damos una probabilidad baja a una guerra comercial, el análisis de Vanguard en el documento de investigación de los Asuntos macroeconómicos mundiales en 2017 («Situación comercial: es complicado») calculaba el impacto de diversas escaladas en las tensiones comerciales. Un ligero aumento en los aranceles tiene un beneficio marginal a corto plazo en la economía que los impone si no hay represalias. Sin embargo, estos beneficios se reducen rápidamente y se pueden compensar con los aranceles impuestos como represalias y la volatilidad del mercado.
Estos aumentos en los aranceles se compensarían entre sí y el resultado final podría ser precios más altos para el consumidor y crecimiento más bajo debido a una menor actividad comercial, lo que significaría una situación donde todos pierden.
Aunque es poco probable, un entorno de guerra comercial podría reducir el PIB de Estados Unidos en 1.7 puntos porcentuales y aumentar la inflación en 0.4 de un punto porcentual anualmente. En este caso, el impacto sería suficiente para obligar a la Reserva Federal de Estados Unidos a interrumpir su endurecimiento de las tasas de interés y a elegir entre suprimir el exceso de inflación y dar apoyo a un crecimiento bajo.
Los efectos secundarios de los aranceles podrían poner a Estados Unidos en una posición rezagada
Además de estas estimaciones del impacto directo en la economía estadounidense, una menor cooperación en el intercambio comercial durante los siguientes años podría dañar los flujos de inversión internacionales y poner a los Estados Unidos en una posición rezagada en vez de destacada en futuras alianzas económicas y políticas.
Los inversionistas pueden suponer de manera razonable que la retórica comercial continuará siendo una fuente de volatilidad durante 2018 a medida que la administración de Trump intenta establecer un nuevo rumbo en la política comercial sin desencadenar represalias de los socios comerciales globales de Estados Unidos.
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People are not here for peace talks. Based on Jiang Yuebai s cultivation, it is very likely that she is going to have a baby.She wore soft animal skin armor over a dark red narrow sleeved long skirt, leather wristbands and leggings.
Qi Ming came from the other side of the mountain road, panting, I m looking for you everywhere.The aura of his body was not that of the early stage of Jindan at all.
Get settled Poof Nangong Yu was caught off guard and was frozen in place.You can only start refining at the golden elixir stage No wonder you have saved so much fire dragon essence and blood.
He knew that this was an opportunity, an opportunity for him to get rid of his identity as a ghost, return to the right path, and even fight for a life for strangers.Today is the Mid Autumn Festival, and I look up to the sky with the wonderful sound and feel sad.
This is my Tianyan Sect s thing and will never be loaned out.people can t keep themselves trapped in hatred, so I can t wait any longer, I want all of them to die now You are right, you were right back then, what I want to cultivate is disobedience Dao Lu Nanzhi Wake up Looking at the crazy Lu Nanzhi, Jiang Yuebai called her name loudly.
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In a wilderness, Wang Shiyuan, who was riding a wind sculpture, and second junior sister Liang Yuzhu, who was riding a blue water unicorn, were hurriedly chasing a little medicine spirit that was as crystal clear as jade.No one dared to rush forward, and He Yunshou also felt extremely troubled.
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Since Lu Xinmei started studying alchemy, she had never received any advice from Brother Ye, so she immediately responded happily.He waved his hand and said You can t go. The East China Sea is dangerous and your cultivation level is too low.
The only one who could rival Ye Ling in cultivation was his late king.He just said lightly It s easy to say As long as it is helpful to fight against the invasion of the East China Sea Monster Clan, I will try my best to support it.
Therefore, Ye Ling made up his mind to win this battle Can t lose.But for Brother Ye s sake, the first three will take care of you.
It s finally stopped Master, I have survived the minor heavenly tribulation and entered the golden elixir stage The ice butterfly took a long breath, swallowed back the ice bead inner elixir, dragged its tired butterfly body, and emerged from under the ice bridge
Ye Ling nodded and smiled, seeing that she was very tired, and her pretty and cute little face looked a little pale.
No matter how powerful it is, it is just a ray of life soul of the demon saint of the East China Sea.But the old sect leader is not here, and the rest of the foundation building elders are not here either.
Baihua Girl couldn t help but exclaimed Zhilan was also frightened.However, several Jindan elders who followed him responded enthusiastically and accepted the call to the East China Sea, including Yuan Guangxi.
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They didn t expect this. The young man dared to attack the chief minister of the dynasty, wasn t he afraid of revenge Although this young man has a second rate late stage level, there is no shortage of martial arts masters among these big families.How can you be so strong Ouyang Bing, who was helped up, vomited out another mouthful of blood, took a breath, looked at Luo Tianhe, and said in shock.
He couldn t wait to urge Luo Tianyu to the foundry hall, where they could study meteorite and forge the thunder knife together.If other people also practiced the Qi Entraining Technique and gained perception, the killers of the Hidden Killing Sect would not be able to threaten them.
Qin Yihan s newly completed Dark Ice Palm made the already late autumn night even more chilly.Wen Yue from behind stretched out his head to take a look, and guessed It should be some kind of The secretion of the beast Be careful and pull it out quickly Luo Chen also frowned.
Lu wants to meet the leader of the ninth largest force after the eight sects.Heavy mountains are oppressing Luo Chen ignored those shocked looks and roared in his heart.
You two Without further ado, let s go down and have a look Thinking of the innate powerhouse buried underneath, Tang San was also excited and urged him impatiently.Immediately afterwards, several people focused their attention on the young man in white on the horse.
As soon as he entered the restaurant, he saw eight or nine people lying in the lobby of the restaurant.Because just the first level of this martial skill made Luo Chen s eyes light up and his breathing became rapid.
The three of Luo Tianhe had just taken a few steps, and Fang Yu A guard suddenly came over behind Yu and blocked the way of the three of them.Three times, congratulations to Miss Huashan Paining for taking this piece of patterned steel After Mr.
Sun Ji was just a small person and not worthy of his concern.Deep in the stone forest, the further you go, the more violent the aura becomes, even carrying various negative emotions such as bloodthirsty and killing.
After the Zhentian Lei exploded, gravel flew up. The shell of the Zhentian Lei was made of different thicknesses to increase the impact of the explosion.Even if Luo Chen had some strength, he would not be a match for the sword master.
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Not bad Luo Chen smiled and took the jade hairpin out of Li Yuxi s black hair.As for the remaining two first class mid term masters, they came out of nowhere.
Luo Chen took the paper and read it. The words on the first piece of paper were neatly written.Hearing this, Luo Chen was surprised and looked at the young woman again.
Zong Qian looked sullen. He looked at the butler murderously.But even if Even after wearing the inner armor, the mummy s scimitar still broke through Tang San s inner armor, leaving a trail of blood on his belly.
At this time, Jingba was leaning against the wall in the alley, breathing heavily.He quickly looked at it, but saw nothing. He glanced left and right, but still found nothing unusual.
If the Sanhe Gang We have attacked them and violated their interests.After rescuing Xu Huang, he followed closely, and the autumn wind swept away the bandits like fallen leaves.
Ouyang Bing, the East Helmsman of the Sanhe Gang, also broke through to the second rate level some time ago, but the Sanhe Gang concealed the news and did not announce it.
Fuente: Vanguard.
