El anuncio reciente del presidente Donald Trump sobre los aranceles a las importaciones de acero, aluminio y una variedad de productos de consumo de China desató un frenesí de preocupación por el riesgo de una guerra comercial global. Sin embargo, Vanguard espera que el impacto económico directo por los nuevos aranceles sea mínimo. Creemos que la importancia real que tienen radica en las implicaciones más amplias y a plazo más largo para la política de comercio internacional.
Los aranceles en contexto
La administración de Trump anunció primero que iba a imponer aranceles de 25% a las importaciones de acero y 10% a las de aluminio. Estos productos en conjunto representan menos de 2% de las importaciones totales de Estados Unidos. Ese estimado aún es alto debido a que Canadá, México y otros aliados, que incluyen la Unión Europea, quedaron exentos temporalmente.
La administración anunció el 22 de marzo un paquete de aranceles y sanciones comerciales sobre los bienes importados de China. Al igual que los aranceles en el acero y el aluminio, estos impuestos probablemente afectarían solo a una pequeña porción del comercio bilateral entre las dos economías más grandes del mundo.
Para entender mejor cómo se vería una escalada de estas disputas, es útil considerar el intercambio comercial en un contexto histórico y global.
Los aranceles de Estados Unidos han estado disminuyendo desde la década de 1930 y se han mantenido por debajo de 5% durante más de cuatro décadas, tal como se muestra a continuación. De acuerdo con el último informe sobre aranceles de la Organización Mundial de Comercio, el promedio actual de aranceles en Estados Unidos es 3.5%, el segundo más bajo en el G20.
Nota: Los datos mostrados son anuales del año 1900 al año 2015.
Fuente: Comisión de Comercio Internacional de Estados Unidos
Aunque Estados Unidos tienen medidas comerciales establecidas que no son aranceles como las protecciones antidumping y por seguridad nacional, continúa siendo uno de los países menos proteccionistas del mundo junto con los miembros de la Unión Europea.
Algunos observadores del mercado hacen una extrapolación del cambio en la política de los aranceles para indicar el inicio de una guerra comercial, similar al ciclo vicioso que desencadenó la infame Ley de Aranceles de Smoot-Hawley de 1930, que redujo dramáticamente el flujo comercial y el crecimiento económico en los primeros años de la Gran Depresión. Dada la historia de reducir las barreras comerciales y conociendo los beneficios de la integración económica, Vanguard cree que es poco probable que la administración de los Estados Unidos modifique dramáticamente la política comercial debido al riesgo de alterar el crecimiento económico.
Disminuyen rápidamente los beneficios de un ligero aumento en los aranceles
Aunque damos una probabilidad baja a una guerra comercial, el análisis de Vanguard en el documento de investigación de los Asuntos macroeconómicos mundiales en 2017 («Situación comercial: es complicado») calculaba el impacto de diversas escaladas en las tensiones comerciales. Un ligero aumento en los aranceles tiene un beneficio marginal a corto plazo en la economía que los impone si no hay represalias. Sin embargo, estos beneficios se reducen rápidamente y se pueden compensar con los aranceles impuestos como represalias y la volatilidad del mercado.
Estos aumentos en los aranceles se compensarían entre sí y el resultado final podría ser precios más altos para el consumidor y crecimiento más bajo debido a una menor actividad comercial, lo que significaría una situación donde todos pierden.
Aunque es poco probable, un entorno de guerra comercial podría reducir el PIB de Estados Unidos en 1.7 puntos porcentuales y aumentar la inflación en 0.4 de un punto porcentual anualmente. En este caso, el impacto sería suficiente para obligar a la Reserva Federal de Estados Unidos a interrumpir su endurecimiento de las tasas de interés y a elegir entre suprimir el exceso de inflación y dar apoyo a un crecimiento bajo.
Los efectos secundarios de los aranceles podrían poner a Estados Unidos en una posición rezagada
Además de estas estimaciones del impacto directo en la economía estadounidense, una menor cooperación en el intercambio comercial durante los siguientes años podría dañar los flujos de inversión internacionales y poner a los Estados Unidos en una posición rezagada en vez de destacada en futuras alianzas económicas y políticas.
Los inversionistas pueden suponer de manera razonable que la retórica comercial continuará siendo una fuente de volatilidad durante 2018 a medida que la administración de Trump intenta establecer un nuevo rumbo en la política comercial sin desencadenar represalias de los socios comerciales globales de Estados Unidos.
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immortal cultivator, the greatest wish and pursuit of Ancestor Xielu is to live forever.With this supreme mark, it is simply an extra trump card, which is very useful whether it is saving lives or killing enemies When He Wenxin felt Lu Yu s sincere thanks, he also stroked his beard and laughed, looking extremely happy.
He was the Ziji Emperor, and he had been reincarnated for who knows how many lives.Wow At this moment, Shenghua Sect Elder Songjiang and others had also rushed over.
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streaks of light flashed past and landed in front of the Cangshan Sect s gate, revealing figures one after another, wearing the Cangshan Sect s white Hanfu, with high crowns and elegant belts, and extraordinary temperament.Lu Ziji is waiting for me to come and settle the score with you Taoist Do CBD Gummies Help with Sleep: A Comprehensive Review (QCYiA)
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He has been valued and cultivated by the elders, and his strength is not bad.And being favored by Lu Ziji also means that he can soar into the sky and become famous In this case, who wouldn t be moved As for those who had previously said that Lu Ziji was a lowly pariah on the Emperor s Constellation, someone who was not of my race, they all changed their minds.
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Ah, little brother Lu Ziji, don t
He Yan er woke up from the illusion with a sweet cry, her pretty and lovely face was flushed, and when she looked at Lu Yu, her beautiful eyes were almost filled with tears.
Seeing this, Jiang Yuebai felt relieved, and at the moment when the broken icicle smashed the entire secret realm into pieces, she crushed the Boundary Breaking Pearl that she had secretly exchanged from Fang s disciples.Jiang Yuebai clenched his molars and cursed in his heart.
So what if I did something I wasn t sure about just for Ao Juan Bai Jiuyou, fight out Okay Ouch The calamity clouds dispersed and the sea breeze gradually subsided.When facing the enemy, the earth evil turns into a pagoda, trapping the enemy and making it difficult to escape.
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At this time, seeing her invincible posture, clearing most of the iron backed crocodiles in the bay alone, everyone was convinced.As it grows, new leaves will appear, and the old leaves will gradually turn into Versicolor versicolor.
The presence of the immortal vine can help them breathe.They can be rotated according to the five elements rotation method.
She saw a huge moss, lush and dense like a small forest.Jiang Yuebai was held up by a breeze and slowed down her fall.
Yuebai Jing Chujun came from a distance, panting, How did you find this place There is really no one patrolling it Jiang Yuebai stood up and turned around with a smile.
This great elder is not a casual cultivator, but Tai Yi, a disciple of the medium sized sect Baihong Sect.We can t blame them for their arrogance. Based on their own mid Nascent Soul realm, any one of them can be considered extremely strong in the world of cultivating immortals.
Shiming, you should give priority to refining Fellow Daoist Lou s elixir.Although he had been using thunder attacks, Lei Xiu s face was pale and sweat was constantly flowing down his face.
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This is a secret method that Li Shiming has not been able to master.Li Shiming couldn t help but twitching at the corner of his eye when he saw the power of this thunder and lightning.
Li Shiming s alchemy ability was a valuable asset to the sect.If this target is killed by him, in addition to getting a benefit from Mu Jing, the sect will also receive a lot of rewards.
Fighting to support fighting is the way sword cultivators grow.The second function of the formation composed of the Nine Palace Sword Array was activated.
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Keep going Looking at this purple blooded Ganoderma lucidum, Lu Yu couldn t help but feel better.Feng Xin waved her hand and shouted Okay, don t say any more words Fairy Ling Yan withdrew in a depressed tone and glared at Princess Lu Xiao fiercely, but she was holding a grudge At Ginger and Weight Loss: Unleashing the Spicy Root’s Slimming Potential
this time, Feng Xin looked at Lu Yu with cold and majestic eyes, and said domineeringly Let Zhou Tianchou go and fight again After hearing Feng Xin s words, Zhou Tianchou suddenly felt confident and sneered Lu Zi Ji, if you heard Feng Xin s words, let me go and start over I still have a secret magical power from the Fengling Sect that I haven t used yet.
The giants will all fall directly under the bombardment of the purple thunder spear Unless you escape from the Nine Heavens Thunder Punishment Formation in advance before triggering the Nine Heavens Thunder, you will definitely die Haha , Lu Ziji is really too arrogant.Seeing this scene, Long Hai, Huo Dingtian and others were extremely Transform Your Life: Super Health CBD Gummies for Lasting Pain Relief
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Okay, since the Baijiang Conference is about to be held, let s let this guy go for the time being Gong Haobo glanced at Lu Yu coldly.As for Lu Ziji, haha
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Gao Tianyi, Zhao Guangji and others also had ulterior motives in their eyes.
Spirituality, just use this guy who is at the Nascent Soul stage to attack for you Go In an instant, the bone sword suddenly exploded and turned into a bright golden sword tens of meters long, and the bearer broke The mountains and rivers, with the Unlocking the Secrets Behind Valerie Bertinelli Weight Loss Success
power to divide the heaven and the earth, spiraled towards the surroundings Immediately afterwards, both Xiaoyue, Lu Yuqing and other people from Cangshan Star, as well as Long Hai and Huo Dingtian, were all stunned.
Let s go It s time to go to the second floor of the Scarlet Flame Pavilion Lu Yu sensed the aura of the Evil Slaughter Ancestor and hid towards the entrance to the second floor of the Scarlet Flame Pavilion that he pointed out
And at this moment. Jianbao Pavilion, Wuhua Sect, Shenghua Sect, Tianyin Sect, the Zhao family of the Western Wasteland royal family, Netherworld Palace
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Are you kidding me As soon as these words came out, the whole audience was shocked.Isn t it possible to hide here and there all day long When Yang Rong saw the reactions of Zhuang Yu, Zhuang Ling er and Lu Xiao, as well as Lu Yu who seemed to be silent, he was overjoyed and breathed Uncovering the Power of Elite Male Gummies Ingredients for Enhanced Performance (aWBQR)
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We old guys who are about to run out of life will do it together Facing Lu Ziji Such a monster threat, don t worry about bullying the small, just go together In an instant, the other four Thousand Blades Sect s background, the four Void Refining Dao Masters all appeared in the air They are the five great ancestors Celebrate Christmas 2025 with the Best Ketosis ACV Gummies in Canada
of the Thousand Blade Sect.
They are so powerful that it is suffocating. There are countless immortal cultivators in the Nascent Soul stage and the golden elixir stage.How is that possible Seeing this scene, Yang Rong was immediately shocked.
More than a year ago, a ray of his soul came to the ancient Chinese martial arts world on the Emperor s Star, and it was enough to compete with Lu Ziji.I have some understanding of the structure and division of forces.
On the other side, Lu Yu had already joined Bai Xixi, Zhuang Ling er, the evil ancestor Lu Zhen, and others.
Fuente: Vanguard.
