El anuncio reciente del presidente Donald Trump sobre los aranceles a las importaciones de acero, aluminio y una variedad de productos de consumo de China desató un frenesí de preocupación por el riesgo de una guerra comercial global. Sin embargo, Vanguard espera que el impacto económico directo por los nuevos aranceles sea mínimo. Creemos que la importancia real que tienen radica en las implicaciones más amplias y a plazo más largo para la política de comercio internacional.
Los aranceles en contexto
La administración de Trump anunció primero que iba a imponer aranceles de 25% a las importaciones de acero y 10% a las de aluminio. Estos productos en conjunto representan menos de 2% de las importaciones totales de Estados Unidos. Ese estimado aún es alto debido a que Canadá, México y otros aliados, que incluyen la Unión Europea, quedaron exentos temporalmente.
La administración anunció el 22 de marzo un paquete de aranceles y sanciones comerciales sobre los bienes importados de China. Al igual que los aranceles en el acero y el aluminio, estos impuestos probablemente afectarían solo a una pequeña porción del comercio bilateral entre las dos economías más grandes del mundo.
Para entender mejor cómo se vería una escalada de estas disputas, es útil considerar el intercambio comercial en un contexto histórico y global.
Los aranceles de Estados Unidos han estado disminuyendo desde la década de 1930 y se han mantenido por debajo de 5% durante más de cuatro décadas, tal como se muestra a continuación. De acuerdo con el último informe sobre aranceles de la Organización Mundial de Comercio, el promedio actual de aranceles en Estados Unidos es 3.5%, el segundo más bajo en el G20.
Nota: Los datos mostrados son anuales del año 1900 al año 2015.
Fuente: Comisión de Comercio Internacional de Estados Unidos
Aunque Estados Unidos tienen medidas comerciales establecidas que no son aranceles como las protecciones antidumping y por seguridad nacional, continúa siendo uno de los países menos proteccionistas del mundo junto con los miembros de la Unión Europea.
Algunos observadores del mercado hacen una extrapolación del cambio en la política de los aranceles para indicar el inicio de una guerra comercial, similar al ciclo vicioso que desencadenó la infame Ley de Aranceles de Smoot-Hawley de 1930, que redujo dramáticamente el flujo comercial y el crecimiento económico en los primeros años de la Gran Depresión. Dada la historia de reducir las barreras comerciales y conociendo los beneficios de la integración económica, Vanguard cree que es poco probable que la administración de los Estados Unidos modifique dramáticamente la política comercial debido al riesgo de alterar el crecimiento económico.
Disminuyen rápidamente los beneficios de un ligero aumento en los aranceles
Aunque damos una probabilidad baja a una guerra comercial, el análisis de Vanguard en el documento de investigación de los Asuntos macroeconómicos mundiales en 2017 («Situación comercial: es complicado») calculaba el impacto de diversas escaladas en las tensiones comerciales. Un ligero aumento en los aranceles tiene un beneficio marginal a corto plazo en la economía que los impone si no hay represalias. Sin embargo, estos beneficios se reducen rápidamente y se pueden compensar con los aranceles impuestos como represalias y la volatilidad del mercado.
Estos aumentos en los aranceles se compensarían entre sí y el resultado final podría ser precios más altos para el consumidor y crecimiento más bajo debido a una menor actividad comercial, lo que significaría una situación donde todos pierden.
Aunque es poco probable, un entorno de guerra comercial podría reducir el PIB de Estados Unidos en 1.7 puntos porcentuales y aumentar la inflación en 0.4 de un punto porcentual anualmente. En este caso, el impacto sería suficiente para obligar a la Reserva Federal de Estados Unidos a interrumpir su endurecimiento de las tasas de interés y a elegir entre suprimir el exceso de inflación y dar apoyo a un crecimiento bajo.
Los efectos secundarios de los aranceles podrían poner a Estados Unidos en una posición rezagada
Además de estas estimaciones del impacto directo en la economía estadounidense, una menor cooperación en el intercambio comercial durante los siguientes años podría dañar los flujos de inversión internacionales y poner a los Estados Unidos en una posición rezagada en vez de destacada en futuras alianzas económicas y políticas.
Los inversionistas pueden suponer de manera razonable que la retórica comercial continuará siendo una fuente de volatilidad durante 2018 a medida que la administración de Trump intenta establecer un nuevo rumbo en la política comercial sin desencadenar represalias de los socios comerciales globales de Estados Unidos.
Los trenes de hidrógeno no solo están revolucionando el transporte ferroviario con su tecnología limpia y eficiente, sino que también están marcando el comienzo de una nueva era en la movilidad sostenible. A medida que más proyectos se desarrollan y la tecnología continúa avanzando, es probable que pronto experimentemos el impacto transformador de estos vehículos en nuestras redes ferroviarias.
Los usuarios del software de Bentley pueden presentar sus proyectos en el programa de los Premios Year in Infrastructure, independientemente de la fase en la que se encuentre el proyecto.
Yesheng Languang felt his scalp tingling just listening to it, and couldn t help asking Did you remember it on purpose Meng Jingzhe shook his head and said A lot of things, I just need to look at it, and it will be imprinted in my mind You can t forget it.Seeing this, Xu Qi an was very pleased.My heart said, Holy Son, Holy Son, Ben Yingong can only help you so far.
So what was his original plan At this time, He listened to the supervisor and said with a smile I am willing to be sealed by you, the real target is you.Although the descendants of gods and demons on the island feel The fear in the bones was reached, but it was not enough to crawl on the ground in fright.
After the thunder exploded, it began to dissipate.After a while, the blue sky reappeared.The ancient gods and demons turned into islands after death, and the Buddha also has similar characteristics, that is to say, the Buddha and the ancient gods and demons are the same in a sense Everyone had a lot of ideas and inspiration.
Backing back again and again, almost fell directly from Meng Jingzhe s palm.Axi Looking at the uncle again, Said Master, do you want to prove yourself too Without any hesitation, Master said directly, If you have such a request, then I will invite the senior brother from the Temple of Punishment to help me prove myself.
Outside Yuyang Pass.The dilapidated city walls, the desolate land, looking up, there are no living beings.He even felt that the whip that Ye Shenglan had obtained earlier, apart from being driven by magic energy, it should not reject the trend of spiritual energy.
Meng Jingzhe also looked back at her at this time.This time, the mentality of the two changed.It is a brightly colored moth with a pair of eyes full of wisdom.
Xu Qi an Quickly dispelled this thought from his mind.I saw that the devilish energy there was like boiling water, surging continuously at this moment.
There were countless loopholes in the attack, and he rushed towards Meng Jingzhe in a daze.he will have no heirs in the future.No, no, mother, they are not unhappy because of this, they suspect that the eldest brother is having a good time overseas.
The Heavenly Tribulation did not come down because he was recognized by the common people, the heaven and the earth, and he had condensed enough luck.When my father was alive, he once comprehended the ninth level of the Fengqi Demon Sutra, and learned the supreme law of the Demon Sutra Fengqi Zhan, and then he became the Demon Lord.
For a long time, someone quietly picked out their ears.PS This chapter is shorter, continue to code the next chapter.
Ba Ji, the leader of the Poison Gu Department, said in a deep voice The heavenly Gu s shifting of stars and fighting is very troublesome, and it takes a lot of effort to find them.He didn t want to compare with the supervisor anymore, although the old silver coin had the leisure to chat with him at the moment, the situation in Kyushu must be under control.
The clean bottle in the hands of the pharmacist overflowed with debris like golden light, providing the Buddha statue with continuous combat battery life Ability.The merciful Dharma figure chanted Buddhist scriptures, and the Sanskrit sounds burst out, dispelling the enemy s fighting spirit.
The voice said.Meng Jingzhe was hit a few more times, but he still didn t have the slightest intention of retreating.Hearing what he said, Immortal Qishan made up his mind and said, Since it s Therefore, this seat wants to help you.
As a teacher, why have you ever practiced magic It has always been the most orthodox spiritual practice.Now that the time is up, the maids will naturally come back to serve His Majesty.
The most pitiful thing is Zhong Li, she is always so unlucky, she likes to look at you with weak eyes like a deer when she is hurt, who would not pity her.As soon as Meng Jingzhe arrived, he saw a monster in the early stage of transformation, playing with another monster in the late stage of Nascent Soul unilaterally.
For a character like the God Lord, he always has a feeling that even if the other party dies, he will definitely not be without a little splash.You obviously have an attitude of being lazy.The Confucian sage didn t say it, but you should have your own insights with a carving knife that has lived for more than 1,200 years Xu Qi an frowned.
Ye Shenglan hastily picked up thousands of whips to resist.The evil god s blow was more powerful than one blow, and no matter how well protected it was, it couldn t withstand such successive attacks.
One of them has gone through a long journey, spanning tens of thousands of years, and finally arrived at the head of a human youth.At this time, Ah Jing, a newly appointed queen of the Tianluo Spider Clan, gradually weakened her aura, but she did not die completely.
People from all walks of life dispersed, and on Yaoman s side, Pei Manxilou looked a little dignified, and Huang Xian er also put away her coquettish manner, her pretty face covered with frost.
She has a good figure, but Not fatty. It gives people an overall feeling of being charming but not vulgar.Wang Zhenzhen glared at Du Heng with dissatisfaction, but she also knew the rules, so she didn t force Du Heng.
We will start treating you in the afternoon. treat.My sister wants to give birth. Du Heng s heart skipped a beat, What are your family s opinions Respect my sister s opinion.
Li Chengzu smiled secretly and came to the point, I don t know the specific details.Seeing the two of them about to go out, Wu Shengnan shouted quickly, Just tell me if you have something to say.
Shao Shao estimates that there must be at least a dozen.Then why didn t you treat her at your local hospital The man sighed again, They said my wife is too fat and the tumor has metastasized to her neck.
Cao Binghe was very puzzled. A woman s belly is as big as a ball, like a woman about to give birth.Even if you say Aconite does meritorious deeds, which method does it belong to Faced with such a question, Wu Buwei was a little stunned.
Wait until the second round, and then use external ointment to start regeneration.From a general perspective, there is no problem, but as long as it is implemented into the details of treatment, there is no definite number on how to use the medicine and how much to use.
The servants are everywhere, Zhengtou is here, and Yun is drunk, otherwise he will be able to take advantage of the post.Others, even middle aged traditional Chinese medicine doctors like Han Yujian, prescribe make shift medicines, such as making ointments and other medicines that require their own hands, and they are basically like useless people.
It s better for us to go back and have a good talk.But to be honest, in Wu Shengnan s situation, he directly found an ambulance to take him home.
He is also the keynote speaker at one of them. However, just because he opened his mouth, grandpa delayed his schedule for a day.Go home. Sooner or later, you have to explain, so just scold them.
He has the support of An Chunhui, and others also have the support of the leaders.At this time, Du Heng didn t care whether Gong Daoyang was in pain or not.
Lack of sleep, extremely dry eyes, and twitching in his brain from time to time, which made Du Heng He was so uncomfortable that he couldn t concentrate on his work at all.Hey, we can t wait for you, so my sister A mei and I ordered two takeaways.
After the arrangements were made, Du Heng and Li Jianwei returned to the office together.On the outside of the boy s calf, ten centimeters below the knee, the elastic pants that had been separated fell off with a piece of skin and flesh.
If it happens again, there s nothing I can do about it.Okay. Zhu Fanzhong did not refuse Du Heng s invitation.
Regardless of whether you can accept it, if you run away like this, you won t be able to explain it to your eldest brother Du Ping.Recalling the feeling of unity of body and mind and nothing else, Du Heng felt great.
From that day on, Zhang Xintian never made a successful video again, and could only see Zhu Minyan s text messages every day.No matter how you use the medicine, the treatment of internal medicine in traditional Chinese medicine is inseparable from these methods.
Not only did they not agree with Du Heng to do it, but they also couldn t do the ointment given by Du Heng for some reasons.The belly was too big, as big as he could comprehend.
Wu, it was so scary when the dean asked questions. I almost couldn t stand.Ouch oh fuck you, who the bastard is The elder brother screamed and roared angrily.
He came over and stuffed it into Du Heng s hand, Dean Du, you re so generous, we won t dare to do it next time.Du Heng looked at Wu Shengnan with a confused look on his face, What little wings They re just for girls.
After finishing speaking, Huaiqing added If you have any.Those who live in the outer city are not necessarily at the bottom of society, but those who live in the inner city are definitely from well to do families.
After listening, Governor Zhang s face was serious The original boss, could it be the real person who kept the books Xu Qi an nodded and said Nine out of ten it is, and if I guessed correctly, it has probably been silenced.yes.At this time, Xu Qi an saw an orange cat standing on the roof in the distance, looking at him with deep pupils.
For the sake of the big chapter, here are a few chapters.Hell has no gate to cast.Meng Wu laughed out loud after being stunned for a moment.
The golden gong, who was usually like a god, couldn t even stand still, but he still grabbed the silver gong s sleeve tightly.The structure of Xu s mansion is a civilian structure, not as high end as it is here.
Are you an idiot The centurion opened the door, saw the watchman sitting cross legged on the floor, and saw Governor Zhang who was intact but pale.Xu Huchen held a long lance, His eyes were sharp, and his dark blue chin had just been scraped, and he slightly nodded towards Li Miaozhen General Li also rescued Commander in Chief with us Li Miaozhen shook his head Master Yang is fine, General Xu is too impulsive.
After identifying them, they replied, That is a barge.He yelled loudly, with an angry gesture of drawing a knife to cut people, it seemed that as long as he did this, others would ignore the raging tears in his eyes.
After that, Uncle Xu went out.That night, he led a team of sword guards to patrol the outer city.Don t yell that I m deaf.Xu Qi an nodded and reminded worriedly Will it affect the old people and children in the yard Hengyuan shook his head I will control the power in this room.
A man who is too soft hearted is easy to eat abalone and lose money.Amidst the rattling of the pages, he shouted angrily, Three days, if you can t find the murderer within three days, I will be punished.
Of course, there is also Xu Lingyin who is sitting alone on the steps outside the front hall, scribbling on the ground with a dead branch.Xu Qi an waved his hand, interrupting Yang Qianhuan s pretentiousness.
good Xu Qi an fully agreed.The two walked out side by side.It involved Daoist Jin Lian, Xu Qi an didn t want to say more, and changed the subject Do you still have that Daoist Pill Another day, I didn t bring it with me.
But Wei Yuan s words were not finished yet, and another major revelation came out According to the investigation, the owner of the private house is involved with the wizards of the Witch God Sect, and the ghost raising spell carved in the well is the evidence.Susu complained unwillingly.It s just a day for you.
Yang Chuannan immediately left the post station, and was ordered to mobilize the army of the guards into the city, cooperate with the Feiyan army, and wiped out the rebels from the other three sects.After entering the inn, everyone s eyes were fixed on the man wearing a sack, especially Xu Qi an and others who knew Liang Youping s background were the hottest.
When the bad news came, the adults were immersed in grief and ignored the children s feelings.He didn t think there was any problem with his response, but it seemed that people didn t buy it.
Speaking of this chicken essence, the taste is indeed irresistible, but it is easy to get thirsty.Xu Qi an handed it over, and then recounted what he had said to Wei Yuan.
Why buy dog meat with an embarrassing expression of pretending to be discovered Xu Qi an frowned and said, Speak humanly.Not a single bone in his body was intact, and so were his internal organs.
Followed by the charm of the country and the city.Song Tingfeng and Zhu Guangxiao tacitly turned their backs, leaving the back of Susu s head.The red dress walked forward silently, snowflakes fluttered and fell on her hair.
After all, her deerskin purse is also a magic weapon for storing things.Within a month and a half, the barbarians who had been killed threw away their helmets and armor, and only more than 5,000 remnants fled back to the north.
Hearing the sound of the dripping water in his ears, he felt the familiar heart palpitations.Such a vulgar fan has no interest in even touching it.
Seeing that the situation was not going well, another thin man turned around and wanted to escape, but was stopped by the intensive shooting of Tiger Benwei, Xu Qi an caught up, visualized the golden lion roaring again, shocked the opponent s spirit, and killed him with one blow.The reason why No.3 said it now may be that he has only recently discovered the process of the Sangbo case and understood its secrets.
Fortunately, there was a gong to mediate from it, so that the matter did not deteriorate to the point of irreversibility.Governor Zhang murmured, he took a deep breath, and ordered Check your integrity A gong stepped forward, holding Liang Youping s hand.
Xu Qi an immediately said that he planned to use the silver rewarded by his majesty to buy real estate, but found the haunted house, and then through empathy, he discovered the private house and told the truth.Suddenly, Jiang Lvzhong s ears twitched, and he turned his head to look at the dark night.
That s it Jiang Luzhong asked.I am from the Tianzong sect.Xu Qi an, who accomplished this feat in less than two months, is more talented than he expected.
Factors, characters, and forces involved in it Wanyao Kingdom, Ping Yuanbo, Minister of the Ministry of War, Si Tianjian, the royal family, Princess Pingyang, Monk Henghui, a hundred households of the Jinwu Guard Zhou Chixiong Breakthrough the strong man with broken hands, monk Henghui , Princess Pingyang.
Zhuangxiang is a delicate girl, she was so bullied by Huaiqing, she turned her head away in aggrieved way.Even if I kill you, the governor can take it for me.
Xu Qi an added After Huang wakes up, he will devour all the descendants of gods and demons in the Transcendent Realm as an excuse.After the inspection, she returned to her residence, closed the doors and windows, and sat on the bed.
The more he tried to suppress it, the more intense his impulse became.Long Yinjian ignored Meng Jingzhe, Meng Jingzhe could only talk to Jing and Sword Master now.
Wait later Xu Qi an sniffed the fragrance of her hair and said But you have to continue washing clothes, cooking, raising chickens, and planting flowers.If I want to record other people s breath, is it the same operation Meng Jingzhe said seemingly unintentionally.
Huaiqing moved his ears, but there was no response, and he lay down in the cold bath to himself.Everyone s face showed Out dignified and apprehensive.
A yin and yang fish pattern appeared on Meng Jingzhe s body.Meng Jingzhe looked at the altar carefully.When hiding in the sword, it is inevitable that there are places that cannot be seen clearly.
Before the catastrophe came, there were no wizards in Kyushu.The bowl was filled with clear water, and a red snake as thick as chopsticks was swimming in the water.
After a pause, he looked around and said to the Mahayana believers beside him Xu Yinluo speaks his word in the Central Plains, and he is the supreme Buddha of the three thousand worlds.He just barely supported and could not do anything to the two of them.
I told my uncle that I just didn t want you to go astray.One What premise Huaiqing replied immediately.Three Gather luck After this news was sent, there was complete silence over there.
No Xu Qi an was stunned, and looked at Sun Xuanji Can t you see Senior Brother Sun, who was fluttering in white, nodded.It was dark outside the window, and there was nothing.
But bright red.The red water drops, as red as blood, hung on the stalagmites, looking particularly oozing.If the sacrifice is held in this mountain, Meng Jingzhe thinks that the altar is likely to be set on the top of the mountain.
Meng Jingzhe is now using the original body of this evil god, and every drop of blood that is forced out will be a very big damage to the evil god.The hot fire, the sacrifice of the soul of luck, the shedding of the most powerful blood, the destruction of the most holy weapon, and the extradition of the closest relatives, only in this way can the dead be brought back to life.
What s more, these countless Tianluo spiders are offering their own power to the new king.Xuanyin, you can t go.The boy with vertical pupils refused to accept it, and said anxiously Why Pei Man Xilou sneered and said Xu Qi an is an out and out martial artist.
If the super grades of the major systems replace the Dao of Heaven, all the monks in their systems will ascend to heaven alone.What made her smell something unusual was that His Majesty was waiting to be married, and young and handsome people all over the world were waiting for her to choose, if she really liked someone, she could be brought into the harem with dignity.
Although it is unreasonable without the Gala tree It s an ordinary defense, but it contains the power of killing thieves and the blood of the Asura clan s Vajra Aspect, and its combat power is better than that of Gala Tree s Vajra Aspect.The young man listened, and it was taken for granted Said Is there anything wrong with this Axi shook his head and said Of course it is a big mistake.
Xu Qi an didn t force her to leave, and looked at the Nine Tailed Fox with a serious face Master, you still need to go to the sea to subdue the descendants of supernatural gods and demons, more and more.It wasn t just her, brother and sister Xiaoyi who had been ignited as fuel were also in a very bad state at this time, their pale faces looked particularly pervasive in the black magic fire.
Huang s heart shuddered You were sealed by me on purpose Jianzheng laughed and said, After seeing the first generation magic weapon, I knew that there was no chance of winning that battle, so I took advantage of your greed for the gatekeeper s spirit to be sealed by you.Xu Qi an has a preliminary judgment on the power of the witch god.
The moment the big hand appeared, countless white vines also rose from the ground, winding straight towards the big hand.Facing the monsters in the mid stage of transformation, Ye Shenglan had been holding on for a long time, and she was already in a panic at this time.
They are all short sighted people, so what if they do everything they can to support me As long as I can ascend to prove the Tao, then I will definitely be able to bring the entire Protoss back to the top of the sky.In the void, there seemed to be an invisible wall directly blocking his way.
This Valkyrie propped up his domain, and with an outrageous and unreasonable attitude, occupied his domain, gradually forcing him out of the Western Regions.The two were caught off guard, and only had time to shout Old Ancestor , and they were sucked into sex in an instant.
Qi and blood flowed away like a flood, but more powerful vitality was also revived in the body, and the undead tree spirit hidden deep in the flesh and blood began to continuously deliver vitality and repair the injury.In the body, the clear light of Jian Zheng s incarnation merged into every cell, activating those indestructible runes that died due to exhaustion and fell into a deep sleep.
Seeing her as mediocre, Then he comforted Don t worry, I have never had high expectations of you.Axi said in a deep voice.Patriarch Yu sneered and said The Protoss is the master here, and everything here should be the back garden of the Protoss, whether it is human or demon, if you don t obey, you should all be wiped out.
Continue to test, there is no reward, I also want to see how far I can do it.Seeing that Meng Jingzhe was so persistent and grabbed the black bell, the weak Meng Xiaotian floated up, turned into a pixiu shape, and bit heavily on Meng Jingzhe s arm.
Coupled with the increase of the power Gu blood sacrifice, my strength has reached the ceiling of this world.The supervisor has a small treasury in the Sitianjian.
Meng Jingzhe held the sword, without any thought, just raised his hand to strike the sword.Every god and demon has a core spirit endowed by heaven and earth.
Fuente: Vanguard.
