El anuncio reciente del presidente Donald Trump sobre los aranceles a las importaciones de acero, aluminio y una variedad de productos de consumo de China desató un frenesí de preocupación por el riesgo de una guerra comercial global. Sin embargo, Vanguard espera que el impacto económico directo por los nuevos aranceles sea mínimo. Creemos que la importancia real que tienen radica en las implicaciones más amplias y a plazo más largo para la política de comercio internacional.
Los aranceles en contexto
La administración de Trump anunció primero que iba a imponer aranceles de 25% a las importaciones de acero y 10% a las de aluminio. Estos productos en conjunto representan menos de 2% de las importaciones totales de Estados Unidos. Ese estimado aún es alto debido a que Canadá, México y otros aliados, que incluyen la Unión Europea, quedaron exentos temporalmente.
La administración anunció el 22 de marzo un paquete de aranceles y sanciones comerciales sobre los bienes importados de China. Al igual que los aranceles en el acero y el aluminio, estos impuestos probablemente afectarían solo a una pequeña porción del comercio bilateral entre las dos economías más grandes del mundo.
Para entender mejor cómo se vería una escalada de estas disputas, es útil considerar el intercambio comercial en un contexto histórico y global.
Los aranceles de Estados Unidos han estado disminuyendo desde la década de 1930 y se han mantenido por debajo de 5% durante más de cuatro décadas, tal como se muestra a continuación. De acuerdo con el último informe sobre aranceles de la Organización Mundial de Comercio, el promedio actual de aranceles en Estados Unidos es 3.5%, el segundo más bajo en el G20.
Nota: Los datos mostrados son anuales del año 1900 al año 2015.
Fuente: Comisión de Comercio Internacional de Estados Unidos
Aunque Estados Unidos tienen medidas comerciales establecidas que no son aranceles como las protecciones antidumping y por seguridad nacional, continúa siendo uno de los países menos proteccionistas del mundo junto con los miembros de la Unión Europea.
Algunos observadores del mercado hacen una extrapolación del cambio en la política de los aranceles para indicar el inicio de una guerra comercial, similar al ciclo vicioso que desencadenó la infame Ley de Aranceles de Smoot-Hawley de 1930, que redujo dramáticamente el flujo comercial y el crecimiento económico en los primeros años de la Gran Depresión. Dada la historia de reducir las barreras comerciales y conociendo los beneficios de la integración económica, Vanguard cree que es poco probable que la administración de los Estados Unidos modifique dramáticamente la política comercial debido al riesgo de alterar el crecimiento económico.
Disminuyen rápidamente los beneficios de un ligero aumento en los aranceles
Aunque damos una probabilidad baja a una guerra comercial, el análisis de Vanguard en el documento de investigación de los Asuntos macroeconómicos mundiales en 2017 («Situación comercial: es complicado») calculaba el impacto de diversas escaladas en las tensiones comerciales. Un ligero aumento en los aranceles tiene un beneficio marginal a corto plazo en la economía que los impone si no hay represalias. Sin embargo, estos beneficios se reducen rápidamente y se pueden compensar con los aranceles impuestos como represalias y la volatilidad del mercado.
Estos aumentos en los aranceles se compensarían entre sí y el resultado final podría ser precios más altos para el consumidor y crecimiento más bajo debido a una menor actividad comercial, lo que significaría una situación donde todos pierden.
Aunque es poco probable, un entorno de guerra comercial podría reducir el PIB de Estados Unidos en 1.7 puntos porcentuales y aumentar la inflación en 0.4 de un punto porcentual anualmente. En este caso, el impacto sería suficiente para obligar a la Reserva Federal de Estados Unidos a interrumpir su endurecimiento de las tasas de interés y a elegir entre suprimir el exceso de inflación y dar apoyo a un crecimiento bajo.
Los efectos secundarios de los aranceles podrían poner a Estados Unidos en una posición rezagada
Además de estas estimaciones del impacto directo en la economía estadounidense, una menor cooperación en el intercambio comercial durante los siguientes años podría dañar los flujos de inversión internacionales y poner a los Estados Unidos en una posición rezagada en vez de destacada en futuras alianzas económicas y políticas.
Los inversionistas pueden suponer de manera razonable que la retórica comercial continuará siendo una fuente de volatilidad durante 2018 a medida que la administración de Trump intenta establecer un nuevo rumbo en la política comercial sin desencadenar represalias de los socios comerciales globales de Estados Unidos.
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Qin Su took him to the tip of his nose and sniffed slightly, the fragrance was tangy.Yu Liao made a little effort and stopped, raising her head to look around.
When he was docile, his eyes were beautiful and proud, but when he teased him with food, the white cat would stare, as if he was about to fight with himself in the next moment.ha Yu Liao heard this and looked at him.The serious young man in his eyes said this, doesn t it mean that her big apprentice doesn t know that he is already very strong He is still a few months away from becoming an adult, and he is stronger than in his previous life.
Yu Liao was standing at the bow of the boat at the moment, she could see the people approaching below more clearly, it turned out to be the second son of the Gufanshan family, no wonder he was so familiar and so arrogant.Yu Liao struggled subconsciously, and a soft sigh from Tan Su came from above, The helplessness in the sigh made her subconsciously stop her movements, and raised her hand to grab Tan Su s front skirt, leaving some space for the embrace.
I believe that senior brothers and sisters are not such pedantic people.What might be hidden in this Tan Su stepped down a step, 56z4oxadr Bioblend Cbd Gummies Cost Fcuu leaned slightly towards the master below, and said with a smile on his face No matter what the hidden situation is, the human body has fallen into a demon, does the master think that he can live Also, how does Master know that he didn t do anything harmful to nature, even if he didn t get blood on his hands.
Speeding up, the group of people were thrown out in an instant.It can be said that except for food and clothing, the rest of the family s money was invested in the maintenance of the young man s body.
As he spoke, Yu Liao s sword pointed lightly in front of him and picked out a person who rushed forward.This old guy, it s his style to host the hairpin flower conference at this time.
They had been changing positions many times, and even now they were slowly changing positions.Yu Liao frowned slightly, but at Gu Where Can I Buy Cbd Gummies A Comprehensive Roej0 Guide Yzbav S55u Jia s words, she had no choice but to stop walking forward, glanced at Su Ziyang in Gu Jia s hand, and said, Gu Jia, don t do anything that you regret.
Seeing that she hadn t spoken for a long time, the woman still had a smile in her eyes If you don t want to call me Susu, you can call me sister.Yu Liao s richest gaze was Su Mu s hand knife stretching towards her neck, and delaying time seemed impossible.
Phew, it s a good thing Tan Su didn t look at her, he still stood upright and respectfully waited for the senior brother s reply.Ah.why are you guys starting to eat The person who came down from the courtyard wall in a conspicuous red Understanding The Benefits Of Cobra Cbd Gummies For A Stress Free Life Jz4z Nlhvmh dress before anyone arrived, was either Gu Jia or someone else.
The love between the four is pulling each other all the time.It was not Tan Su who came back, but Su Mu and his son.
He was disappointed in his father early tomorrow, But under Master s words, he suddenly felt the long lost grievance again.Senior brother, let me introduce.This is Gu Jia, a friend I met on the road.
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Just reading books and practicing, no examples are impressive.Wu Buwei was stunned for a moment, Pulmonary fibrosis Yes, otherwise why would there be pulmonary heart disease.
Lu Zhongjiang doesn t care about money, but he supervises Du Heng s spending, but he can suppress Du Heng s reckless spending.
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tool only.Master, are we going to step forward to stop it now What kind of formation does this seem to be Tan Su glanced at the formation in front of him and said.However, Yu Liao Managing Low Xmma8g Blood Sugar With Convenience The Benefits Of Low Blood Sugar Gummies Jqqng 1zs7 didn t take the sword directly as he thought, she twisted her hand lightly, and she was already holding the Qingchen sword in her hand.
The person I like is my master, who is critical to redeem the Taoist master, Yu Liao.Taking advantage of her good looks and reputation at her age, it would be better to use the name of Double Oiran as early as possible to make money.
Fuente: Vanguard.
