El anuncio reciente del presidente Donald Trump sobre los aranceles a las importaciones de acero, aluminio y una variedad de productos de consumo de China desató un frenesí de preocupación por el riesgo de una guerra comercial global. Sin embargo, Vanguard espera que el impacto económico directo por los nuevos aranceles sea mínimo. Creemos que la importancia real que tienen radica en las implicaciones más amplias y a plazo más largo para la política de comercio internacional.
Los aranceles en contexto
La administración de Trump anunció primero que iba a imponer aranceles de 25% a las importaciones de acero y 10% a las de aluminio. Estos productos en conjunto representan menos de 2% de las importaciones totales de Estados Unidos. Ese estimado aún es alto debido a que Canadá, México y otros aliados, que incluyen la Unión Europea, quedaron exentos temporalmente.
La administración anunció el 22 de marzo un paquete de aranceles y sanciones comerciales sobre los bienes importados de China. Al igual que los aranceles en el acero y el aluminio, estos impuestos probablemente afectarían solo a una pequeña porción del comercio bilateral entre las dos economías más grandes del mundo.
Para entender mejor cómo se vería una escalada de estas disputas, es útil considerar el intercambio comercial en un contexto histórico y global.
Los aranceles de Estados Unidos han estado disminuyendo desde la década de 1930 y se han mantenido por debajo de 5% durante más de cuatro décadas, tal como se muestra a continuación. De acuerdo con el último informe sobre aranceles de la Organización Mundial de Comercio, el promedio actual de aranceles en Estados Unidos es 3.5%, el segundo más bajo en el G20.
Nota: Los datos mostrados son anuales del año 1900 al año 2015.
Fuente: Comisión de Comercio Internacional de Estados Unidos
Aunque Estados Unidos tienen medidas comerciales establecidas que no son aranceles como las protecciones antidumping y por seguridad nacional, continúa siendo uno de los países menos proteccionistas del mundo junto con los miembros de la Unión Europea.
Algunos observadores del mercado hacen una extrapolación del cambio en la política de los aranceles para indicar el inicio de una guerra comercial, similar al ciclo vicioso que desencadenó la infame Ley de Aranceles de Smoot-Hawley de 1930, que redujo dramáticamente el flujo comercial y el crecimiento económico en los primeros años de la Gran Depresión. Dada la historia de reducir las barreras comerciales y conociendo los beneficios de la integración económica, Vanguard cree que es poco probable que la administración de los Estados Unidos modifique dramáticamente la política comercial debido al riesgo de alterar el crecimiento económico.
Disminuyen rápidamente los beneficios de un ligero aumento en los aranceles
Aunque damos una probabilidad baja a una guerra comercial, el análisis de Vanguard en el documento de investigación de los Asuntos macroeconómicos mundiales en 2017 («Situación comercial: es complicado») calculaba el impacto de diversas escaladas en las tensiones comerciales. Un ligero aumento en los aranceles tiene un beneficio marginal a corto plazo en la economía que los impone si no hay represalias. Sin embargo, estos beneficios se reducen rápidamente y se pueden compensar con los aranceles impuestos como represalias y la volatilidad del mercado.
Estos aumentos en los aranceles se compensarían entre sí y el resultado final podría ser precios más altos para el consumidor y crecimiento más bajo debido a una menor actividad comercial, lo que significaría una situación donde todos pierden.
Aunque es poco probable, un entorno de guerra comercial podría reducir el PIB de Estados Unidos en 1.7 puntos porcentuales y aumentar la inflación en 0.4 de un punto porcentual anualmente. En este caso, el impacto sería suficiente para obligar a la Reserva Federal de Estados Unidos a interrumpir su endurecimiento de las tasas de interés y a elegir entre suprimir el exceso de inflación y dar apoyo a un crecimiento bajo.
Los efectos secundarios de los aranceles podrían poner a Estados Unidos en una posición rezagada
Además de estas estimaciones del impacto directo en la economía estadounidense, una menor cooperación en el intercambio comercial durante los siguientes años podría dañar los flujos de inversión internacionales y poner a los Estados Unidos en una posición rezagada en vez de destacada en futuras alianzas económicas y políticas.
Los inversionistas pueden suponer de manera razonable que la retórica comercial continuará siendo una fuente de volatilidad durante 2018 a medida que la administración de Trump intenta establecer un nuevo rumbo en la política comercial sin desencadenar represalias de los socios comerciales globales de Estados Unidos.
En los próximos meses estaremos emocionados de tomar las lecciones aprendidas en este vuelo para continuar el programa Aquila en su progreso y su fin de unir al mundo mediante la conectividad.
Jian Taiding looked excited, secretly clenched his fists, widened his eyes and stretched his neck.As for the content of the big adventure, it will be up to the previous person.
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Zaun said lightly. Tang Tian er hurriedly waved her hand and said, No, no, this is my true feeling.Zaan could only smile wryly, thinking that not showing up all the time is not a solution, it depends on how to solve this problem.
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I have to pay it back. Zu an said My mother s kindness, I have to repay it as an ox or a horse.It s me. Hearing the other party s voice, Zaun breathed a sigh of relief, this time there will be no mistake.
Presumably it should be with the help of this thing.Zaan patted him on the shoulder Don t worry, I won t kill you, I m not that kind of person.
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What s so arrogant Damn ants, what are you talking about The people of Dragon Palace roared.Is it a monster In the flames of hell, there is such a terrifying monster.
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Reincarnation Lin Xuan waved his fists continuously, and his indomitable momentum was displayed by him.This is a gorgeous dividing line The sky that came was also illuminated, and then the Inspiration from Lainey Wilson: 3 Students Overcome Weight Loss Hurdles
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The opponent blocked it. How the hell did he do it How terrifying is this kid s physique Countless shocks came, and Zhan Tian s pupils shrank sharply.Soon, he saw a phantom of X10 Boost Keto ACV Gummies Review: What Should You Know?
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With such persistence, Fenghu became more and more desperate
Lin Haoming did lead the army to win. In a big battle with certain bets, he won the bet.Lin Haoming didn t know what kind of enmity there was between Gummies for Weight Loss: How to Indulge Without Overdoing it During the Holidays
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The power of the princes of the Yue State was the same as that of the princes of the Wei State.After noon, he saw obvious traces of people s activities.
Don t listen to me, there is no one out there who will surrender cautiously.After the Ming Kingdom was defeated, the Gu family also switched to Jing Kingdom.
He s just a villain who tends to power, as long as the power is still on our side, he will listen to us.Lin Haoming asked intentionally. At most a hundred miles around, listen to me.
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couldn t help it for a while.In fact, according to Lin Haoming s judgment, the sound of the cannon was estimated to be 20 to 30 kilometers away, because there is nothing blocking the sea along the wind, so it can travel far.
Little shouted They don t touch you, their dirty things Looking for the girl s bill Lin Haoming was not surprised.Yes Wei Shun agreed, It s just that the eyes are not simple.
The skinny man said. How is your army organized Lin Haoming then asked.Elder An is resting outside the cabin, and he is waiting there.
When Lin Haoming chatted with Guangyao at the beginning, he also talked about some things about the state of Kun.After all, since there is no Hu Linjue who cannot come out to make troubles, it is also possible that there will be no seventh or eighth Hu Linjue who will come out to make profits for himself.
Lin Haoming smiled and said, Are you the daughter of Brother Yuan My father is Yuan Cha.
The Daxuan Empire is just a country on this continent, and its strength is only moderate.The effect is probably almost the same as kneeling and kowtowing.
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young man laughed three times , and then his figure rose from the ground, like a streamer, rushing to the sky in an instant.What is this impossible However, when everyone was desperate, the fierce man in front suddenly let out a sharp cry, as if he had encountered something terrible.
Immediately, a huge aura spread out, and the next moment, the figure disappeared in a flash.However, he was killed by the young man in front of him with a single sword.
In the end, two purple phoenix wings formed, wrapping Murong Qingcheng s delicate body, and the terrifying phoenix phantom lingered beside her.A group of Murong family elders roared and rushed forward with all their might.
The sky giant sword formed by the purple thunder and lightning was chopped into pieces with one sword.At the same time, he took out three talismans from the storage ring, and quickly burned them.
This is really terrifying. Damn, this kid is too weird.However, what they couldn t do, a young man in his twenties did it easily.
Everyone also quickly understood what happened, because countless figures were flying towards them quickly.Isn t it okay to use the sub shenjing Lin Xuan also asked.
Because these three women have an unusual relationship with him, he doesn t seem to have anything to do with each other.It seems that he will be able to enter the seventh heaven of the Venerable in a short time.
There is a purple bamboo next to it, with lightning flashing all over it, and many elixir are planted around that bamboo.Now that he has subdued the Nine Nether Demon Sword, I am afraid that the energy in this black space can also be absorbed by him.
On the other side, the Seventh Elder and Zhu Chen teamed up to strike out two giant claws, exuding a monstrous murderous aura, and quickly grabbed Lin Xuan.This scene. It makes everyone look bad, because the stronger the opponent is, the more uncomfortable they feel.
Its city lord is equivalent to the four guardians, and is above all hall masters.The three of Montaigne also left quickly. In the deep mountains, Lin Xuan and Zhao Xue manifested their figures and landed in the forest, and then the dark red dragon quickly arranged a formation.
It is impossible to kill the opponent unless he is a Tianjiao like him.If the other party doesn t open their eyes and really wants to fight him, he doesn t mind asking the other party to know what it means Netizens please remind John Goodman’s Weight Loss Journey: Secrets to Shedding Pounds
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Ahead, the Golden Feather Divine Condor spread its wings and flew very fast and smoothly.Let me show you my strength today. of light. He is a two star king, and Where to Buy the Best 6 Pack Keto Gummies and Get the Best Deals?
he is very powerful, very close to the middle stage of a two star king.
Dong Qianshan stood on the magic mountain and rushed towards him quickly.However, it was quiet all around, and there was no ghost.
Such a good thing, I am afraid that even the Venerable of the Nine Heavens will be envious.At the same time, he stretched out his palm and slapped the big man fiercely.
With a long whistle, his whole body was like a blue lightning, rushing towards this side quickly.Not only that, but the storage rings of those nine level peak venerables are even more precious.
Fuente: Vanguard.
