El anuncio reciente del presidente Donald Trump sobre los aranceles a las importaciones de acero, aluminio y una variedad de productos de consumo de China desató un frenesí de preocupación por el riesgo de una guerra comercial global. Sin embargo, Vanguard espera que el impacto económico directo por los nuevos aranceles sea mínimo. Creemos que la importancia real que tienen radica en las implicaciones más amplias y a plazo más largo para la política de comercio internacional.
Los aranceles en contexto
La administración de Trump anunció primero que iba a imponer aranceles de 25% a las importaciones de acero y 10% a las de aluminio. Estos productos en conjunto representan menos de 2% de las importaciones totales de Estados Unidos. Ese estimado aún es alto debido a que Canadá, México y otros aliados, que incluyen la Unión Europea, quedaron exentos temporalmente.
La administración anunció el 22 de marzo un paquete de aranceles y sanciones comerciales sobre los bienes importados de China. Al igual que los aranceles en el acero y el aluminio, estos impuestos probablemente afectarían solo a una pequeña porción del comercio bilateral entre las dos economías más grandes del mundo.
Para entender mejor cómo se vería una escalada de estas disputas, es útil considerar el intercambio comercial en un contexto histórico y global.
Los aranceles de Estados Unidos han estado disminuyendo desde la década de 1930 y se han mantenido por debajo de 5% durante más de cuatro décadas, tal como se muestra a continuación. De acuerdo con el último informe sobre aranceles de la Organización Mundial de Comercio, el promedio actual de aranceles en Estados Unidos es 3.5%, el segundo más bajo en el G20.
Nota: Los datos mostrados son anuales del año 1900 al año 2015.
Fuente: Comisión de Comercio Internacional de Estados Unidos
Aunque Estados Unidos tienen medidas comerciales establecidas que no son aranceles como las protecciones antidumping y por seguridad nacional, continúa siendo uno de los países menos proteccionistas del mundo junto con los miembros de la Unión Europea.
Algunos observadores del mercado hacen una extrapolación del cambio en la política de los aranceles para indicar el inicio de una guerra comercial, similar al ciclo vicioso que desencadenó la infame Ley de Aranceles de Smoot-Hawley de 1930, que redujo dramáticamente el flujo comercial y el crecimiento económico en los primeros años de la Gran Depresión. Dada la historia de reducir las barreras comerciales y conociendo los beneficios de la integración económica, Vanguard cree que es poco probable que la administración de los Estados Unidos modifique dramáticamente la política comercial debido al riesgo de alterar el crecimiento económico.
Disminuyen rápidamente los beneficios de un ligero aumento en los aranceles
Aunque damos una probabilidad baja a una guerra comercial, el análisis de Vanguard en el documento de investigación de los Asuntos macroeconómicos mundiales en 2017 («Situación comercial: es complicado») calculaba el impacto de diversas escaladas en las tensiones comerciales. Un ligero aumento en los aranceles tiene un beneficio marginal a corto plazo en la economía que los impone si no hay represalias. Sin embargo, estos beneficios se reducen rápidamente y se pueden compensar con los aranceles impuestos como represalias y la volatilidad del mercado.
Estos aumentos en los aranceles se compensarían entre sí y el resultado final podría ser precios más altos para el consumidor y crecimiento más bajo debido a una menor actividad comercial, lo que significaría una situación donde todos pierden.
Aunque es poco probable, un entorno de guerra comercial podría reducir el PIB de Estados Unidos en 1.7 puntos porcentuales y aumentar la inflación en 0.4 de un punto porcentual anualmente. En este caso, el impacto sería suficiente para obligar a la Reserva Federal de Estados Unidos a interrumpir su endurecimiento de las tasas de interés y a elegir entre suprimir el exceso de inflación y dar apoyo a un crecimiento bajo.
Los efectos secundarios de los aranceles podrían poner a Estados Unidos en una posición rezagada
Además de estas estimaciones del impacto directo en la economía estadounidense, una menor cooperación en el intercambio comercial durante los siguientes años podría dañar los flujos de inversión internacionales y poner a los Estados Unidos en una posición rezagada en vez de destacada en futuras alianzas económicas y políticas.
Los inversionistas pueden suponer de manera razonable que la retórica comercial continuará siendo una fuente de volatilidad durante 2018 a medida que la administración de Trump intenta establecer un nuevo rumbo en la política comercial sin desencadenar represalias de los socios comerciales globales de Estados Unidos.
El almacenamiento por contrato combina la rentabilidad del almacenamiento público con servicios mejorados y seguridad exclusiva. Sin embargo, antes de firmar, las organizaciones deben evaluar todas las opciones para asegurarse de que este tipo de almacenamiento cumpla con sus objetivos y prioridades. La elección correcta garantizará la eficiencia y el éxito en las operaciones de su negocio industrial.
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Qingyang A vague connection was quickly established with him.It s hard to say anything else in our Hengyun Mountain.
When the strength reaches a certain level, there is no need to reason with the other party.The one who spoke just now was one of them. From what the other party meant, it seemed that a monk named Chengen Mingzun wanted to enter.
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There is almost no danger in rushing back to the sect for help.As for the spirit stones, it s even harder to say. Five or six hundred thousand spirit stones are needed to advance to the Golden Core Stage to advance to one level of cultivation.
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Although the thunder and lightning are small, Brother Hu can sense the power of rules in thunder and lightning.A relaxed smile appeared on his face, and he confirmed that the pressure of the great monk realm of the great monk Ge Guang had very little effect on him.
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It was obvious that these Jindan monks were indeed professional.End of Chapter The gravity field of Lingbao s Wanjianfeng was released, and Li Yuanba felt light.
Great monk Chang Ju has been paying attention to great monk Luo Pei.His body and spirit have reached some kind of bottleneck, and a big mountain blocks How Kelly Osbourne Weight Loss Changed Her Life: A 2025 Story the continued strengthening of his body and spirit.
Once these thirty six nodes were added, they were connected between the nodes many times by the fingers, forming a A larger formation structure diagram.Just as shocked as him was his spiritual pet Xiaofeng.
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Thinking of this, he couldn t help but look at the high tower.Junior Brother Luo, what s going on As soon as he entered the mountain gate, Master Mao Jing came out to greet him and asked.
Li Yuanba sent a message to the great monk Lou, and the great monk Lou cooperated with his actions, which led to his attack on the great monk of the Baidi Sect.If you want to escape, at least Nascent Soul can escape.
Master Li, the reward for your nine alchemy missions is 2,000 contribution points, which will give you an upgraded level of authority.However, his attack was not just Lingbao Xingyi s sword.
The thunder escape activated by the powerful life saving jade talisman is to a certain PowerPulse ED Pills: Enhancing Male Performance extent the most advanced life saving means in the world of immortality.But when he activated the Space Acceptance Talisman , he found that the Space Acceptance Talisman had lost its effect.
Shi Ming, have you encountered any trouble in your cultivation recently Zuo Laozu asked with a smile.The other early Yuanying monks had momentum but did not move.
If you don t explain this matter clearly, I will come to you with my sword in hand Luo Yuan was called out by the great Neng.The arrival of two hundred sword cultivators also brought with them a large number of talismans.
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Because only the Holy Church is qualified to handle this thing.But when dealing with humans, the effect should not be too obvious, and more than half of the targets can be killed instantly.
But Heiyun remained silent after the other party appeared, as if he had thought of something.The next step is to reorganize and distribute the troops.
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Lou Wu is very confident. This time he came out with the sword cultivator team.But in just one breath, the cut body of this strange creature merged and recovered.
Now that he is out of the attack range, he will no longer be in danger.He was even sure that as long as he left the radiation filled environment of Hell Cave, he could use the Innate Yimu magical power to remove all the radiation from his body.
Even if the Baidi Sect wanted to conceal the fall of the great monk Shi Dong, it would be difficult to conceal it.The Hidden Phoenix Jade Talisman on his body has been exerting its effect, suppressing his aura.
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When this Lightning Technique was released, he felt the difference in this Lightning Technique.He came to the palace and was explaining the situation to a deacon.
I thought you were here Great Monk Wu Ge appeared, he looked at Li Yuanba and said with a smile.According to the original plan, he was planning to come to the Eastern Qi Continent alone, but some matters delayed his trip.
Since the IBMz15 was nearby, the help he received this time was the fastest.Tang Xuening was not in the pavilion, but was out on a mission.
End of this chapter Li Shiming mastered the changing laws of countless lines in the stone circle, and his consciousness followed the changing lines.With the flash of black light, the first fallen monk from the beginning of the mission appeared.
Hiding the breath of spiritual treasures is just an incidental ability
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The weapon spirit does not know the name of his former master.He can t escape their tracking Jiang Pu was very confident in the two Golden Pill elders and replied with a smile.
With his ability, he could obtain several resources for promotion to Nascent Liberty CBD Gummies for ED: Assessing Their Potential Soul in a short time.After the sword spirit obtained the secret method of raising the sword, it quickly understood the secret method of raising the sword as if it had a talent for swordsmanship, and began to use the spiritual power of the Nascent Soul to continuously use the secret method of raising the sword to nourish Xing Yijian.
Fuente: Vanguard.
