¿Qué tan probable es una guerra comercial mundial?

Fuente: Vanguard.

El anuncio reciente del presidente Donald Trump sobre los aranceles a las importaciones de acero, aluminio y una variedad de productos de consumo de China desató un frenesí de preocupación por el riesgo de una guerra comercial global. Sin embargo, Vanguard espera que el impacto económico directo por los nuevos aranceles sea mínimo. Creemos que la importancia real que tienen radica en las implicaciones más amplias y a plazo más largo para la política de comercio internacional.

Los aranceles en contexto

La administración de Trump anunció primero que iba a imponer aranceles de 25% a las importaciones de acero y 10% a las de aluminio. Estos productos en conjunto representan menos de 2% de las importaciones totales de Estados Unidos. Ese estimado aún es alto debido a que Canadá, México y otros aliados, que incluyen la Unión Europea, quedaron exentos temporalmente.

La administración anunció el 22 de marzo un paquete de aranceles y sanciones comerciales sobre los bienes importados de China. Al igual que los aranceles en el acero y el aluminio, estos impuestos probablemente afectarían solo a una pequeña porción del comercio bilateral entre las dos economías más grandes del mundo.

Para entender mejor cómo se vería una escalada de estas disputas, es útil considerar el intercambio comercial en un contexto histórico y global.

Los aranceles de Estados Unidos han estado disminuyendo desde la década de 1930 y se han mantenido por debajo de 5% durante más de cuatro décadas, tal como se muestra a continuación. De acuerdo con el último informe sobre aranceles de la Organización Mundial de Comercio, el promedio actual de aranceles en Estados Unidos es 3.5%, el segundo más bajo en el G20.

Nota: Los datos mostrados son anuales del año 1900 al año 2015.
Fuente: Comisión de Comercio Internacional de Estados Unidos

Aunque Estados Unidos tienen medidas comerciales establecidas que no son aranceles como las protecciones antidumping y por seguridad nacional, continúa siendo uno de los países menos proteccionistas del mundo junto con los miembros de la Unión Europea.

Algunos observadores del mercado hacen una extrapolación del cambio en la política de los aranceles para indicar el inicio de una guerra comercial, similar al ciclo vicioso que desencadenó la infame Ley de Aranceles de Smoot-Hawley de 1930, que redujo dramáticamente el flujo comercial y el crecimiento económico en los primeros años de la Gran Depresión. Dada la historia de reducir las barreras comerciales y conociendo los beneficios de la integración económica, Vanguard cree que es poco probable que la administración de los Estados Unidos modifique dramáticamente la política comercial debido al riesgo de alterar el crecimiento económico.

Disminuyen rápidamente los beneficios de un ligero aumento en los aranceles

Aunque damos una probabilidad baja a una guerra comercial, el análisis de Vanguard en el documento de investigación de los Asuntos macroeconómicos mundiales en 2017 («Situación comercial: es complicado») calculaba el impacto de diversas escaladas en las tensiones comerciales. Un ligero aumento en los aranceles tiene un beneficio marginal a corto plazo en la economía que los impone si no hay represalias. Sin embargo, estos beneficios se reducen rápidamente y se pueden compensar con los aranceles impuestos como represalias y la volatilidad del mercado.

Estos aumentos en los aranceles se compensarían entre sí y el resultado final podría ser precios más altos para el consumidor y crecimiento más bajo debido a una menor actividad comercial, lo que significaría una situación donde todos pierden.

Aunque es poco probable, un entorno de guerra comercial podría reducir el PIB de Estados Unidos en 1.7 puntos porcentuales y aumentar la inflación en 0.4 de un punto porcentual anualmente. En este caso, el impacto sería suficiente para obligar a la Reserva Federal de Estados Unidos a interrumpir su endurecimiento de las tasas de interés y a elegir entre suprimir el exceso de inflación y dar apoyo a un crecimiento bajo.

Los efectos secundarios de los aranceles podrían poner a Estados Unidos en una posición rezagada

Además de estas estimaciones del impacto directo en la economía estadounidense, una menor cooperación en el intercambio comercial durante los siguientes años podría dañar los flujos de inversión internacionales y poner a los Estados Unidos en una posición rezagada en vez de destacada en futuras alianzas económicas y políticas.

Los inversionistas pueden suponer de manera razonable que la retórica comercial continuará siendo una fuente de volatilidad durante 2018 a medida que la administración de Trump intenta establecer un nuevo rumbo en la política comercial sin desencadenar represalias de los socios comerciales globales de Estados Unidos.

 

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The temperature of the water Understanding the Benefits and Reliability of MyLyfe CBD Gummies for an ordinary person s bath is about forty degrees, but the temperature of the water she used was already over eighty degrees at this moment, because the temperature made her jade skin blush, but it did not hurt her skin.What a powerful body The humanoid monster stared at Ye Fei in surprise, then nodded to Ye Fei, then retreated directly, admitting defeat.

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After a while, Luo Qingan looked at Fang Hong and asked Which technical department of yours is responsible for the external network Fang Hong also said bluntly Quantitative capital.At around 9 34, Xingyu Technology fell by more than 8 percentage points, but Yixing Video hit the limit first.

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The money will be available in minutes, and it will be able to manage enough End of this chapter Transcoding has been serious recently, which makes us more motivated and updates faster.In the morning, the market index opened slightly lower 0.

Will Spearmint Tea for Weight Loss: Exploring its Potential in Supporting Healthy and Effective Results Hua Yu turn his sickle on them with his backhand The big guys in the industry who learned the news couldn t figure out why Stellar Capital would take action against Merrill Lynch.Most people had witnessed it with their own eyes, but had never experienced it personally.

This is true in many cities across the country, but https://tannoorgrill.com/case-studies/en-how-much-h69-apple-cider-vinegar-a-day-to-lose-weight-effectively-826c/ New Town is No pressure.This is tantamount to overthrowing the current vested interest groups.

Ten year old investors said that they have never seen a monster stock that behaves like this.Huge amounts of insurance funds and pension funds can enter the stock market more stably, which is a long term benefit to A shares.

There is really nothing more irritating than this stock As the weekend passed, it was Monday, September 26th.In fact, not to mention the majority of investors in the secondary market, even the cooperative institutions of market makers such as Bell Capital and Perennial Capital feel that this is a bit excessive.

This weekend is a weekend, and all my friends and businessmen are scolding Boston Brain Science Cerebra Reviewed: Does It Really Help Improve Brain Health? me.Such a small benefit, Chen Yu estimated. The game of competition may The Benefits of Vitafusion Gummies Men's: A Comprehensive Guide to Daily Multivitamins (DhcuL) involve political and even military competition to determine the final ownership, so it is natural for the country to take away the small head.

Such news reached several major capital groups on Wall Street, which had just been cut off.When Ma Gaoyuan heard this, he immediately said They don t care about the technology itself at all, they just want to make a quick buck with a clever name.

The secretary general came out to reply The Secretary to the Board of Directors said The news spread online is just a rumor.The Galaxy Concept is still in a state of collective beating.

Tian Jiayi took advantage of the situation and added The premise is that our funds have not been lost.I am very angry. In https://tannoorgrill.com/support/kesy7ih-vitality-natural-cbd-gummies-dots-a-comprehensive-guide-to-boosting-wellness-tehmn-smr0/ some hospitals now, no place is clean from head to toe.

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The next day, Friday, August 2, the quantitative capital bidding opened higher by 1.The virtual online world is https://tannoorgrill.com/support/l8j3s-en-keto-xp-dissolving-tablets-0f3e/ now called the fifth space.

If your opponent makes such a move, it The Benefits and Uses of Cannabis Oil Gummies: A Comprehensive Guide (zmseo) https://tannoorgrill.com/insights/zmyra-review-does-this-weight-loss-supplement-really-work-gan06192-o1e0/ is just that there is no pressure on Qunxing Capital.There was no selling or bidding to add positions, Kelly Clarkson Weight Loss Diet Gummies: The Truth Behind the Hype because the opening was too weird.

That is to say, the five Lagrangian points are in gravitational equilibrium positions, which can keep the https://tannoorgrill.com/spotlight/zhfk6-exploring-the-benefits-of-happy-cbd-gummies-for-relaxation-and-wellness-0vyi/ objects at these points relatively stationary The Benefits of Culturelle Gummies for Adults: A Comprehensive Guide to Probiotic Supplements (oODkP) with the two celestial bodies.It Exploring the Benefits of Green CBD Gummies for a Healthier Lifestyle s simple, crude and straightforward. Fang Hong thought for a while and said, No need.

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Fang Hong was quite satisfied with the hundreds of billions of benefits brought about by this round of directional blasting.As the market officially opened at 9 Relieving Arthritis Pain with Hemp Gummies for Arthritis: A Comprehensive Guide (pzIGQ) 30, Quantitative Capital s stock price opened lower and moved lower, directly breaking the five day average price line.

The increase reached 6. 93 , but when the market launched a major counterattack in the afternoon, Yixing Video not only failed to resonate with the index, but fell sharply.There were only two of them in Finding the Best Place to Buy CBD Gummies: A Comprehensive Guide the reception room of the company.

3 trillion. Calculate, Guo Jia s team is about 3. 3 trillion, and after paying taxes in full, the remaining 33 trillion is not Qunxing Capital s net profit.but the visual impact of the mountain of 200 million US dollars in cash in front of him was too shocking.

Therefore, on the surface, it is facing off against America in the middle.Every day it either sets a new record high or sets a new record.

Tian Jiayi immediately said If Jiuzhou Blue Arrow wants to go public, it will definitely have to go through the backdoor route.