El anuncio reciente del presidente Donald Trump sobre los aranceles a las importaciones de acero, aluminio y una variedad de productos de consumo de China desató un frenesí de preocupación por el riesgo de una guerra comercial global. Sin embargo, Vanguard espera que el impacto económico directo por los nuevos aranceles sea mínimo. Creemos que la importancia real que tienen radica en las implicaciones más amplias y a plazo más largo para la política de comercio internacional.
Los aranceles en contexto
La administración de Trump anunció primero que iba a imponer aranceles de 25% a las importaciones de acero y 10% a las de aluminio. Estos productos en conjunto representan menos de 2% de las importaciones totales de Estados Unidos. Ese estimado aún es alto debido a que Canadá, México y otros aliados, que incluyen la Unión Europea, quedaron exentos temporalmente.
La administración anunció el 22 de marzo un paquete de aranceles y sanciones comerciales sobre los bienes importados de China. Al igual que los aranceles en el acero y el aluminio, estos impuestos probablemente afectarían solo a una pequeña porción del comercio bilateral entre las dos economías más grandes del mundo.
Para entender mejor cómo se vería una escalada de estas disputas, es útil considerar el intercambio comercial en un contexto histórico y global.
Los aranceles de Estados Unidos han estado disminuyendo desde la década de 1930 y se han mantenido por debajo de 5% durante más de cuatro décadas, tal como se muestra a continuación. De acuerdo con el último informe sobre aranceles de la Organización Mundial de Comercio, el promedio actual de aranceles en Estados Unidos es 3.5%, el segundo más bajo en el G20.
Nota: Los datos mostrados son anuales del año 1900 al año 2015.
Fuente: Comisión de Comercio Internacional de Estados Unidos
Aunque Estados Unidos tienen medidas comerciales establecidas que no son aranceles como las protecciones antidumping y por seguridad nacional, continúa siendo uno de los países menos proteccionistas del mundo junto con los miembros de la Unión Europea.
Algunos observadores del mercado hacen una extrapolación del cambio en la política de los aranceles para indicar el inicio de una guerra comercial, similar al ciclo vicioso que desencadenó la infame Ley de Aranceles de Smoot-Hawley de 1930, que redujo dramáticamente el flujo comercial y el crecimiento económico en los primeros años de la Gran Depresión. Dada la historia de reducir las barreras comerciales y conociendo los beneficios de la integración económica, Vanguard cree que es poco probable que la administración de los Estados Unidos modifique dramáticamente la política comercial debido al riesgo de alterar el crecimiento económico.
Disminuyen rápidamente los beneficios de un ligero aumento en los aranceles
Aunque damos una probabilidad baja a una guerra comercial, el análisis de Vanguard en el documento de investigación de los Asuntos macroeconómicos mundiales en 2017 («Situación comercial: es complicado») calculaba el impacto de diversas escaladas en las tensiones comerciales. Un ligero aumento en los aranceles tiene un beneficio marginal a corto plazo en la economía que los impone si no hay represalias. Sin embargo, estos beneficios se reducen rápidamente y se pueden compensar con los aranceles impuestos como represalias y la volatilidad del mercado.
Estos aumentos en los aranceles se compensarían entre sí y el resultado final podría ser precios más altos para el consumidor y crecimiento más bajo debido a una menor actividad comercial, lo que significaría una situación donde todos pierden.
Aunque es poco probable, un entorno de guerra comercial podría reducir el PIB de Estados Unidos en 1.7 puntos porcentuales y aumentar la inflación en 0.4 de un punto porcentual anualmente. En este caso, el impacto sería suficiente para obligar a la Reserva Federal de Estados Unidos a interrumpir su endurecimiento de las tasas de interés y a elegir entre suprimir el exceso de inflación y dar apoyo a un crecimiento bajo.
Los efectos secundarios de los aranceles podrían poner a Estados Unidos en una posición rezagada
Además de estas estimaciones del impacto directo en la economía estadounidense, una menor cooperación en el intercambio comercial durante los siguientes años podría dañar los flujos de inversión internacionales y poner a los Estados Unidos en una posición rezagada en vez de destacada en futuras alianzas económicas y políticas.
Los inversionistas pueden suponer de manera razonable que la retórica comercial continuará siendo una fuente de volatilidad durante 2018 a medida que la administración de Trump intenta establecer un nuevo rumbo en la política comercial sin desencadenar represalias de los socios comerciales globales de Estados Unidos.
Un edificio ocupa una cantidad importante de energía para sostenerse; su comunicación, almacenaje, iluminación y muchas áreas más requieren un gasto constante y en ocasiones abrumador de energía.
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If he was injured in the attack just now, then he was indeed five.The Bodhisattva took action in person.Xu Qi an couldn t help but want to pinch his brows.
In other words, Xu Qian may be able to devour them even though his Yuanshen is not as good as them.Beside Shura King Kong was a skinny old man, with flowers in his hands, sitting cross legged and bowing his head, his white eyebrows hung down to his cheeks, and there was a mole between his eyebrows.
Thinking about it now, did he find fault on purpose He secretly reached an agreement with him.She said to the former little Tongluo It has long been secretly promised, and the emperor knows it.
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The Bodhisattva of the first rank will come as soon as he says it.After finishing speaking, he glanced at Chai Lan, and he had to keep Chai s family.
Wang Shoufu waited patiently for the princes to finish speaking, and then continued The oath was drawn up that day.It turns out that he is a third rank martial artist.
As he was speaking, Xu Pingzhi entered the inner hall with his armor in his arms and a long knife in his waist and hips.It was probably not what she expected, it was out of plan Either she wanted to make amends, or she didn t want to make things worse, so that was why she held the Demon Slaughter Conference.
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Master Xu Qi an sat cross legged beside him, clasped his hands together, and said reverently, I think I need to be rescued.If you don t cooperate, I ll have a good time here first, and then throw you to the nearby villagers.
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This problem really bothered him for several days. But I have been suffering from no one to talk to, so I just suppressed it.Just like what we often see in children with cerebral palsy when they grow up, their bodies become tilted when walking and their facial muscles cannot be controlled.
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Then what if I insist on entering The nurse sneered, Director Jin, I advise you not to do that.
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The power of law is also terrifying and abnormal, which is the perfect means to deal with the old demon of Montenegro.He squeezed his hands and poured all his magic power into the Yin Yang bottle.
When Xu Yang approached the ground, he suddenly felt his surroundings loosen, the mysterious force suddenly disappeared, and his consciousness recovered.He had spent a lot of time fighting with Nascent Soul Qi Shishan just now.
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This large net is the top grade Lingbao Futian net, which is made by Ouyang Feng collecting the skins of thousands of snakes and refining various natural materials and earth treasures.During this period of time, Xu Yang couldn t get out of seclusion, and he didn t intend to make friends with them.
Immediately, Xu Yang s fingers tingled, and yellow lines appeared on the surface of his skin, and he couldn t help showing the appearance of an indestructible golden bell.Once it succeeds, it will be infinitely powerful.Although his Myriad Dao Wheel is low in level, it is finally made with the Bailing Lianbao Jue.
Mount Mangchang was originally a dangerous place in Qianzhou, where there are few people and the environment is extremely harsh, full of miasma, and there are many poisonous insects and beasts.This is the middle of Yunhuang Daze, and now many monks have gathered here.
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Ghost Gate City is not far from here, and it can be reached in two days at most.Speaking of this, Gu Yan Yuanjun pondered for a while, nodded and said Okay Let s go I ll return quickly, and I ll be able to reach Lanzhou in three months.
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Xu Yang sat cross legged in the tent, the yin and yang demon map in his body was constantly rotating, and the traces of ghost energy were sucked into it, unable to corrode Xu Yang s body.
Just like this, she rejected all the people who wanted to redeem her back then.Yu Liao and Qin Su were waiting for this moment, Qin Su nodded to the master, and the long sword in his hand turned into a magic qin.
The man said as he glanced at his daughter beside him, with a Mood Cannabis Gummies Oluc Amx9396w smile on his face.After she finished speaking, she ignored the elder sister s slight tug on her sleeve, and put a gloating smile on her face.
It is estimated that in the end the elder still gave an order to the disciples not to hurt him, so everyone was a little scared when he came to Gu Shu s arms.The two watched helplessly as their mouths were opened.
Yan er, use your sword to gather spiritual power and go up.Patriarch Chen didn t agree with anything, he directly said that they would deal with it properly, and hoped that they would rest assured, he hesitated for a while and said cautiously Miss Su, we were also obsessed with Meng Fan s matter at the beginning, so we did it in a Comprehensive Review Of Cbd Living Sparkling Water Benefits Effects And I1g5u8 User Feedback Rsyxa Yu26 foolish way.
Tan Su s eyes sank when he looked at the stack of materials that the young boy was holding over.Seeing the eyes of the second sister who wanted to tell him immediately, he also leaned over slightly to save face.
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Who are you Why are you in my shed As she spoke, the little girl s big eyes seemed to catch a glimpse of the blood on Yu Liao s white clothes, and she backed away with some fear.Her eyelashes flickered on his left hand, creating a little itch, and he ignored the weak struggle on the other hand, deepening the Evaluating Cbd Life Uk Reviews A Comprehensive Analysis Of Quality Ab06w7 And Efficacy Xdebj Ijqd kiss a little.
After speaking, Gu Shuhuai lazily threw the scimitar in his hand on the ground, and the two scimitars touched the table and made a slight sound , he didn t care, just looked at Tan Su s direction and said sullenly I said, your senior brother Qin Su played hidden strength with me Uncovering The Truth Behind 5dbc1l Earthmed Cbd Gummies Shark Tank Episode A Comprehensive Review Muytb Oyat last time.She simply laid her head on his chest below, snorted coldly and said You can do whatever you want, hurry up if you want to do it, anyway, I m tired of talking about rebellion and infidelity as a teacher.
In this life, she realized that his family was not as warm and harmonious as she thought.Let s go to the human world.Since everyone wants to face off on the spot, I, Gu, will also give me a chance, that is, everyone should pay attention to controlling their faces.
Tan Su was tall and tall, condescendingly watching the little boy s little movements and eyesight, and then glanced at the master s gentle smile, who didn t know how lethal it was, he squeezed the hand by his side, and looked at the little boy s eyes.Ah Batch Cbd 6ql Gummies Vb7f Su, why are you here Why don t you invite someone in Qin Su let go of his tightly clenched palms at this sound, he closed his eyes slightly and adjusted his expression.
We just talked about some past events when we were young, and we had a good chat.Master, I will work hard to become stronger.Tan Su lowered his voice and said.
You haven t gone down the mountain for a long time.But this is actually very strange.Judging from the spiritual power of the whip in her hand just now, she should have some spiritual power, so that she can t even hear the man s murmured words clearly.
One day Chen Gui did the act of coercing the woman in the house again.She was reborn in the year when Tan Su wanted to worship her as his teacher and entered the critical year.
Seeing that no one spoke, Su Yan er eased the atmosphere and said Eldest senior brother, second senior brother asked me to send him a greeting.He glanced at the smiling master on the opposite side and lowered his eyes.
Yu Liao took the Qingchen Sword from Qin Su s hand.Chen Yuanwai, didn t you hear that she asked you to let go Or do you think it s okay if your daughter dies Chen Yuanwai glanced at the wooden sword on her back, and finally shoved Meng Fan in fear He let go of his hand, and finally stared fiercely at her who was coughing in embarrassment.
Master, it s very different for you to treat me all the time.Yu Liao glanced at the fear on the faces of the two people opposite, and said coldly If you want to live, then the person who gave you the elixir will be killed.
What s the meaning of Junior Sister s words Meng Xun was obviously more concerned about this, and asked with a slight frown.Tan Su, who looked over, lowered his voice and asked, Ah Su, are you okay with your spiritual power running It s because I didn t arrive early as a teacher.
There can be many disciples in Taoism and foreign sects, but there is only one direct disciple.Su Yan er murmured beside her in a low voice.Although she lowered her voice, Yu Tan Su did not.
It also told me the method of fake incense and baby life sacrifice, saying that I would die if I did so.After entering, an attic appeared in front of the two of them, and the smell of blood came from here.
Fuente: Vanguard.
