El anuncio reciente del presidente Donald Trump sobre los aranceles a las importaciones de acero, aluminio y una variedad de productos de consumo de China desató un frenesí de preocupación por el riesgo de una guerra comercial global. Sin embargo, Vanguard espera que el impacto económico directo por los nuevos aranceles sea mínimo. Creemos que la importancia real que tienen radica en las implicaciones más amplias y a plazo más largo para la política de comercio internacional.
Los aranceles en contexto
La administración de Trump anunció primero que iba a imponer aranceles de 25% a las importaciones de acero y 10% a las de aluminio. Estos productos en conjunto representan menos de 2% de las importaciones totales de Estados Unidos. Ese estimado aún es alto debido a que Canadá, México y otros aliados, que incluyen la Unión Europea, quedaron exentos temporalmente.
La administración anunció el 22 de marzo un paquete de aranceles y sanciones comerciales sobre los bienes importados de China. Al igual que los aranceles en el acero y el aluminio, estos impuestos probablemente afectarían solo a una pequeña porción del comercio bilateral entre las dos economías más grandes del mundo.
Para entender mejor cómo se vería una escalada de estas disputas, es útil considerar el intercambio comercial en un contexto histórico y global.
Los aranceles de Estados Unidos han estado disminuyendo desde la década de 1930 y se han mantenido por debajo de 5% durante más de cuatro décadas, tal como se muestra a continuación. De acuerdo con el último informe sobre aranceles de la Organización Mundial de Comercio, el promedio actual de aranceles en Estados Unidos es 3.5%, el segundo más bajo en el G20.
Nota: Los datos mostrados son anuales del año 1900 al año 2015.
Fuente: Comisión de Comercio Internacional de Estados Unidos
Aunque Estados Unidos tienen medidas comerciales establecidas que no son aranceles como las protecciones antidumping y por seguridad nacional, continúa siendo uno de los países menos proteccionistas del mundo junto con los miembros de la Unión Europea.
Algunos observadores del mercado hacen una extrapolación del cambio en la política de los aranceles para indicar el inicio de una guerra comercial, similar al ciclo vicioso que desencadenó la infame Ley de Aranceles de Smoot-Hawley de 1930, que redujo dramáticamente el flujo comercial y el crecimiento económico en los primeros años de la Gran Depresión. Dada la historia de reducir las barreras comerciales y conociendo los beneficios de la integración económica, Vanguard cree que es poco probable que la administración de los Estados Unidos modifique dramáticamente la política comercial debido al riesgo de alterar el crecimiento económico.
Disminuyen rápidamente los beneficios de un ligero aumento en los aranceles
Aunque damos una probabilidad baja a una guerra comercial, el análisis de Vanguard en el documento de investigación de los Asuntos macroeconómicos mundiales en 2017 («Situación comercial: es complicado») calculaba el impacto de diversas escaladas en las tensiones comerciales. Un ligero aumento en los aranceles tiene un beneficio marginal a corto plazo en la economía que los impone si no hay represalias. Sin embargo, estos beneficios se reducen rápidamente y se pueden compensar con los aranceles impuestos como represalias y la volatilidad del mercado.
Estos aumentos en los aranceles se compensarían entre sí y el resultado final podría ser precios más altos para el consumidor y crecimiento más bajo debido a una menor actividad comercial, lo que significaría una situación donde todos pierden.
Aunque es poco probable, un entorno de guerra comercial podría reducir el PIB de Estados Unidos en 1.7 puntos porcentuales y aumentar la inflación en 0.4 de un punto porcentual anualmente. En este caso, el impacto sería suficiente para obligar a la Reserva Federal de Estados Unidos a interrumpir su endurecimiento de las tasas de interés y a elegir entre suprimir el exceso de inflación y dar apoyo a un crecimiento bajo.
Los efectos secundarios de los aranceles podrían poner a Estados Unidos en una posición rezagada
Además de estas estimaciones del impacto directo en la economía estadounidense, una menor cooperación en el intercambio comercial durante los siguientes años podría dañar los flujos de inversión internacionales y poner a los Estados Unidos en una posición rezagada en vez de destacada en futuras alianzas económicas y políticas.
Los inversionistas pueden suponer de manera razonable que la retórica comercial continuará siendo una fuente de volatilidad durante 2018 a medida que la administración de Trump intenta establecer un nuevo rumbo en la política comercial sin desencadenar represalias de los socios comerciales globales de Estados Unidos.
La mayor atención a temas como la sostenibilidad, el cambio climático y otros problemas ambientales ha cambiado la forma en que muchos consumidores ven sus
Diseñado para que sea sencillo e intuitivo para los clientes, Hitachi IoT Appliance ayuda a los usuarios a lograr rápidamente sus implementaciones de IoT.
Es mucha la complejidad a la que se enfrentan los jóvenes; exige una formación innovadora y de inmersión para desarrollar competencias que los faculten a cumplir metas y expectativas de la sociedad actual.
La instalación de una solución completa para el fin de línea de Coca-Cola Bottling en Indonesia, incrementó en 50% la eficiencia de la línea en una de las empresas de producción de bebidas más importantes del país.
Isn t it easy to catch you The previous attack was just because I didn t want to kill you But now, I won t let you go.There is nothing to say. It s just that they greedily coveted Lu Ziji s inheritance of immortality But now, it s not Do CBD ED Gummies Work? A Comprehensive Guide to Their Effects on Erectile Dysfunction (GlKiM)
just greed, but also hatred Lord Ye Tianzhen and those people did not die in the martial arts arena.
A casual move. boom boom boom In an instant, with bursts of roaring, the seven story red flame pavilion in the shape of a red pagoda that was hundreds of feet tall disappeared.When the time comes to compete for the Liu Yan Magic Pearl, there will be no advantage.
However, those cultivators were able to sneak away and even plundered most of the aura of the Emperor s Star before leaving.Late stage powerhouses, you must be careful Okay I understand, come here now After hearing Lu Yu s reply, a flash of joy flashed in the eyes of the Evil Kill Ancestor, and then he pretended to be a transparent outer disciple, Following the true Boost Your Running Performance with CBD Gummies for Running: A Comprehensive Guide (xLTtV)
disciples of Wuhua Sect, he rushed towards the entrance to the second floor of Chiyan Pavilion.
But now, with Lu Yu hanging the Red Flame Pavilion on his waist, could he treat others as blind Is this more ostentatious At this time, Gou Rui, Lian Peng and others eyes were extremely greedy and hot.hold it in your hand From a relaxed state, the whole person became full of momentum like a long sword standing proudly under the sky.
They did not know that Elder Qing had already arrived and died, but they just shouted angrily How bold How dare you You broke into the Luoyue Palace and made a big fuss, so why don t you hurry up and arrest her, otherwise Elder Qing, the guard of the Luoyue Palace, will definitely not let you go Lu Yu gently patted the white back in his arms and comforted her.
Due to the obstruction of the Scarlet Flame Mountain formation, everyone would not be able to get the treasure for a while, and they did not start fighting.but with the strength in the middle stage of the divine transformation, it is more than Finding the Best Gummies for Sleep and Relaxation: A Comprehensive Guide (qHdHs)
enough to take down Lu Ziji Others also nodded.
It is not what you think at all. How is that possible Even my master, the Immortal Gu God, and the Changbai Mountain Snake Dragon Ancestor, who are at the peak of the Martial Gods, cannot do it Yes, that must be the case Hearing the Immortality The words of Miao Ruohai, the descendant of the Gu God lineage, suddenly made the princes Fugui, the Ma family of Changbai Mountain, the lineage of the Amaterasu Goddess of Japan, the Creator Organization and other hidden forces all look happy and excited Brother Miao is right, It was impossible for Lu Ziji to kill all those terrifying Cangshan Star cultivators, not even the peak Martial God He must be like a shrunken turtle, hiding in the corner of Cangshan Star, not daring to fight with those The Wana Blood Orange Gummies Effects: A Comprehensive Guide (xsEGB)
terrifying immortal cultivator meets Yes, Lu Ziji was wearing a mask before, Spanish Fly Female Sensual Enhancement Gummies Reviews: A Comprehensive Guide (gmTNf)
hiding his head and tail.
Uncle Emperor, we haven t rescued Lu Ziji yet Supreme, we are incompetent
At this time, He Zhenlong and others came over to report to He Wenxin with shame on their faces.The figure is stooped, with wrinkles and age spots everywhere You
what kind of swordsmanship are you doing Elder Lu s vision was a little blurry.
Humanity said That man must have a lot of heavenly and earthly treasures and treasures.They are all talented people from major immortal cultivating sects or major cultivating forces.
If Feng Xin died in front of their eyes, I m afraid they would also be blamed by the leader of the Tianwai Sect.Like a little girl, she burst into tears. Tears fell down like broken beads This, this, this
how is this possible This is Fang Siya, the national queen who has been pursued by countless noble men from aristocratic families but has not been able to tempt her.
After all, Lu Ziji hasn t come out yet. There s no point in fighting now For a time, Lian Peng, Gou Rui, Huan Zixuan, Chang Yun and other talented people closed their eyes to rest and recharge their batteries At the same time, he also took the elixir to repair the injuries he had sustained during the fight on the eighth floor of the Scarlet Flame Pavilion and restore his spiritual power.
Blinded by hatred and anger, inner demons are born and fall into the devil s path.Even the two golden wheels of merit behind him were close to being broken The meritorious golden body on his body was not injured at all, and the golden light was still shining brightly Seeing this scene, Red Tea for Weight Loss: Unveiling the Slimming Secrets of this Vibrant Brew
Gou Rui, Yan Xunan and others also breathed a sigh of relief God bless, Lu Ziji will be fine Gou Rui s beautiful eyes looked at Lu Yu who was fighting with the young demon master of the ancient demon clan with worried eyes, her heart lifted up, and she prayed silently.
Seeing Yang Rong lower his head and give in, he was in front of Lu Ziji with a smile on his face to please him.However, Lu Yu s eyes were clear and he was not tempted by such a treasure as the Liu Yan Magic Bead.
Everyone else also turned pale, their scalps were numb, their hairs stood How long to do hiit for weight loss
on end, and their hands and feet were as cold as if they had fallen into an ice cellar Wow In an instant, this bundle of divine ropes twisted Pros & Cons Of Renew Calm CBD Gummies
and turned in the void, and in an instant, it tied up seven or eight Nascent Soul cultivators from the Shenghua Sect.
He won t be able to run during that formation. It s better to wait until Xiaobi passes before going.This is actually a method for tempering spiritual consciousness, but it requires too many spiritual stones.
Jiang Yuebai s long hair was flying, standing with a gun, and pointed out a talisman.Now that I am consuming my spiritual consciousness everywhere, I realize that my spiritual consciousness is really not good enough.
Jiang Yuebai went to the main hall to sit for a while, watching Lu Nanzhi take away the letters spread out on the table, and then went back to the room to tidy up his appearance temporarily.Unfortunately, they are incorporeal and cannot cause any damage to Bai Yuxun.
He attacked and killed with a sickle, and the war started again.Before it was activated, this was just an ordinary staircase.
Sister, please let our master take me in. Can I become your second junior brother instead of being a swordsman I also want Finding Relief with CBD Gummies for IBS: A Comprehensive Guide (rfqrA)
to make a pagoda, and I also want to conquer all directions Lu Nazhi took off Jiang Yuebai s skirt.When the evil cultivators of the Sanyuan Sect saw Zhao Fuyi, they were all frightened.
Jiang Yuebai asked Ge Yuchan to watch for her first, and seize the time to refine the beast souls collected in the past three days into the eight formation disks to turn them into formation soldiers that can kill the enemy.These elixirs were indeed cultivated by the juniors.
There is indeed no shortage of spiritual farmers in Huaxi Valley, but I lack someone to handle chores.A female cultivator appeared next to Yun Shang in an instant and held her in her arms.
That means it really appeared. I still don t give up and want to look for it.There will be a Fengyun meeting in three years time.
She had never racked her brains so much when studying spirit insects.They were filled with shame. They thought they were ignorant girls, but how could they expect that Will Gummies Lower Blood Pressure: A Comprehensive Guide (eVVlv)
they were peerless geniuses Wen Miao shrugged, Look, he s just a nobody, Zhongshan Zhenjun, don t panic.
It can t rain today, right For a moment, the three of them looked at Lin Beichen, their faces full of confusion and confusion.Down. Everyone was dumbfounded. Son
bullet It was as if he was afraid that they wouldn t believe it.
That s because I haven t bought a new mobile phone until now.And just then. There was a measured knock on the door.
His hands and feet were twisted to such an extent that it would be hard for anyone to believe that there were no fractures.Learning more does not mean that the effect of exercise will be better.
Only the back is left
just a little bit. However, things are not peaceful here on the Internet.Unsuspecting, he watched helplessly as the cell phone that was in his hand a second ago turned into a perfect parabola.
They all know that a mirage is actually a phenomenon that projects the scene of another space into the sky through the reflection and refraction of light.That s the tent. The owner of the luggage store took out a packed tent with one hand and introduced it You have also seen the portability of this hiking tent.
In an instant Several bolts of lightning fell from the sky, with electric arcs flashing around them, penetrating the rain curtain, Can Keto Weight Loss Gummies Truly Accelerate Your Fitness Goals?
like a thunder prison, and struck straight at the trafficker who was running with all his strength on the ground.I heard that the entire second teaching building had a power outage because it was struck by lightning That s strange.
Then the scene became normal, and the reporter began his explanation of the volcano, and did not continue to focus on Lin Beichen as they wanted.He vaguely feels that Thunder Strike Wood is not that simple, but he has not discovered it yet.
What is this for Pick three people
No restrictions It would be easier if there were selection criteria.And just then. The doors of other interrogation rooms in this corridor opened one after another, and police officers who were supposed to be taking notes on the hostages came out one after another.
I have gone through many ups and downs. I originally thought that I could hold my breath.It s all about feeling and chance. Just read whatever book comes to you.
I shocked myself with a stick, saying that I was going to touch high voltage electricity, a series of operations.Damn it, he actually held a plank in the sea for half a quarter of an hour.
I have no idea how Lin Beichen climbed up such a high cliff.Looking at the juniors practicing in the inner courtyard, Chen Daxia was satisfied.
Quite a few, and then continued I have had conversations with overseas organizations, and overseas organizations have also sent videos to prove that apart from some trauma, they are in good mental condition.Hear what he said. The other spies seemed to have taken a reassurance and felt a lot more at ease.
Solution, solved, but not completely solved The picture only lasted for a moment.Helpless, he glanced at the computer screen again, looked at it Comprehensive Daytrip CBD Sparkling Water Reviews: A Detailed Analysis of Benefits and Effectiveness (CsMpO)
for a moment, and then continued According to the current trend, it will take at least two days before the outbreak occurs, but the current detected situation is too serious inside Jingli Mountain.
They spread the word to ten, and soon everyone in the entire scenic area was aware of it.Lin Beichen had been prepared for this, and his attention was all on Spy C s gun.
What Situation
Just when they were confused. Under their surprised gazes.As for figuring out the various problems in special areas
Wait until the liver s electrical elements are replenished.
If it weren t for Jia Xiuchun s special body, her recovery ability is far beyond ordinary people, and Lin Xiangtian was there to hang The Benefits of Activgenix CBD Gummies in Tampa, Florida: A Comprehensive Guide
her life for her, she would never have been able to resist it even once.Would you like to play in the back with your sister Jiang Yuebai was so frightened that he quickly grabbed Yun Shang and ran away.
She was immersed in this mysterious and mysterious feeling, which seemed to understand but also seemed not to understand at all.Fire and thunder collided violently, and at the moment of the explosion, Jiang Oprah Keto Gummies Reviews – Real Weight Loss Results or Just Another Trend?
Yuebai raised his gun to attack.
Snapped You are just a maid next to the young lady, but you still dare to practice calligraphy secretly Since that lady praises you for being smart and eager to learn, then you go to the brothel and study hard Take her away The ferocious fat lady blocked the way, and the little girl suddenly appeared.
When it comes to farming, I still have to rely on Senior Brother Guo.glared at Xiao Ankuo, and went to the door to greet him.
After dodging a few fragments, a fragment of the sky and a fragment of the earth hit her on the left and right.Jiang Yuebai raised his head without fear and called them Look clearly.
Who is Song Pei er Jiang Yuebai looked at the tokens and evil magic weapons on the table, becoming more and more unfamiliar with this person, as if he had never known her before.I am not asking you to forgive me for telling this to you today.
Golden Light Formation Defensive Formation 103 Four Symbols and Bagua Diagram Obtained by the sect through the inheritance of the ancestor 129 Spirit Turtle Armor Talisman Eighth grade defensive talisman 135 Turtle Breath Talisman Gifted by Ge Yuchan, can avoid detection 139 Wind, Fire and Heaven Jue Formation Fire element formation, can trap and kill Monks in the foundation building period 144 Small Unique Weight Loss Technique: Wrapping Feet in Apple Cider Vinegar for 2025
Moving Formation Transfer items between two formations 158 Five Heavenly Thunder Formation See 221 Quicksand Dragon Binding Formation Earth Attribute Trap Enemy Formation 228 Elixir Food Pei Yuan Dan strengthens Discover the Delightful CBD Gummies Aftertaste: Why Plain Jane CBD Gummies Stand Out from the Rest
the foundation and strengthens the essence, used for the later stages of Qi training 79 Dust Falling Pill can remove erysipelas to a certain extent Wellness Farms CBD Gummies Review: Will It Really Work As Advertised?
79 Marrow Cleansing Super Chill CBD Gummies 5000mg: A Comprehensive Guide to Relaxation and Wellness (TQAZJ)
Pill washes the essence and cuts the marrow, removes impurities from the body, and strengthens the meridians and Dantian 98 Jiuhua Jade Dew Pill Holy medicine for healing, available in Nascent Soul stage 118 Awakening Pill Quickly restore consciousness 118 Bibo Soul clearing Pill Restore soul trauma 118 Yuanjing Golden Pill monk monster soul essence, see for details 179 Snake Slough Fruit One piece can withstand thirty years of hard work, obtained from the insect nest in the Quicksand Region 184 Concentration Pill Can slowly restore consciousness, refined from materials unique to the Quicksand Region 181 Qi and Blood Pill Strengthening Bones Dan Assists the elixir How CBD Gummies Affect Blood Pressure: A Comprehensive Review (KmUIi)
needed for the first two levels of Nine Transformations of the Golden Body.
Wen Ci said Let s get down to business, there is another reward for the first place in Xiaobi, which is to choose Which CBD Gummy is Best for Pain: Expert Reviews and Guide
a teacher.Jiang Yuebai walked in, but did not see Song Pei er.
Zhenjun Fuyi nodded with satisfaction. At any time, formation disciples can take advantage of the geographical location to break the formation and set up formations, turning disadvantages into advantages.The foundation must be laid when the elixir is formed.
Please come out and have a look, Master, help me Not far away, the handymen repairing the house murmured in a low voice.Sheathing the knife, Jiang Yuebai s aura gradually faded, and his eyes swept over Guo Zhen, Shi Xiaowu, and landed on the tearful Lu Ying s face.
She was busy in the fields earlier, and all she thought about was how Lu Ying was not as good as her, and what qualifications Lu Ying had.Xie Jingshan was not too hungry and put down his chopsticks after eating a bowl of rice.
Fuente: Vanguard.
