¿Qué tan probable es una guerra comercial mundial?

Fuente: Vanguard.

El anuncio reciente del presidente Donald Trump sobre los aranceles a las importaciones de acero, aluminio y una variedad de productos de consumo de China desató un frenesí de preocupación por el riesgo de una guerra comercial global. Sin embargo, Vanguard espera que el impacto económico directo por los nuevos aranceles sea mínimo. Creemos que la importancia real que tienen radica en las implicaciones más amplias y a plazo más largo para la política de comercio internacional.

Los aranceles en contexto

La administración de Trump anunció primero que iba a imponer aranceles de 25% a las importaciones de acero y 10% a las de aluminio. Estos productos en conjunto representan menos de 2% de las importaciones totales de Estados Unidos. Ese estimado aún es alto debido a que Canadá, México y otros aliados, que incluyen la Unión Europea, quedaron exentos temporalmente.

La administración anunció el 22 de marzo un paquete de aranceles y sanciones comerciales sobre los bienes importados de China. Al igual que los aranceles en el acero y el aluminio, estos impuestos probablemente afectarían solo a una pequeña porción del comercio bilateral entre las dos economías más grandes del mundo.

Para entender mejor cómo se vería una escalada de estas disputas, es útil considerar el intercambio comercial en un contexto histórico y global.

Los aranceles de Estados Unidos han estado disminuyendo desde la década de 1930 y se han mantenido por debajo de 5% durante más de cuatro décadas, tal como se muestra a continuación. De acuerdo con el último informe sobre aranceles de la Organización Mundial de Comercio, el promedio actual de aranceles en Estados Unidos es 3.5%, el segundo más bajo en el G20.

Nota: Los datos mostrados son anuales del año 1900 al año 2015.
Fuente: Comisión de Comercio Internacional de Estados Unidos

Aunque Estados Unidos tienen medidas comerciales establecidas que no son aranceles como las protecciones antidumping y por seguridad nacional, continúa siendo uno de los países menos proteccionistas del mundo junto con los miembros de la Unión Europea.

Algunos observadores del mercado hacen una extrapolación del cambio en la política de los aranceles para indicar el inicio de una guerra comercial, similar al ciclo vicioso que desencadenó la infame Ley de Aranceles de Smoot-Hawley de 1930, que redujo dramáticamente el flujo comercial y el crecimiento económico en los primeros años de la Gran Depresión. Dada la historia de reducir las barreras comerciales y conociendo los beneficios de la integración económica, Vanguard cree que es poco probable que la administración de los Estados Unidos modifique dramáticamente la política comercial debido al riesgo de alterar el crecimiento económico.

Disminuyen rápidamente los beneficios de un ligero aumento en los aranceles

Aunque damos una probabilidad baja a una guerra comercial, el análisis de Vanguard en el documento de investigación de los Asuntos macroeconómicos mundiales en 2017 («Situación comercial: es complicado») calculaba el impacto de diversas escaladas en las tensiones comerciales. Un ligero aumento en los aranceles tiene un beneficio marginal a corto plazo en la economía que los impone si no hay represalias. Sin embargo, estos beneficios se reducen rápidamente y se pueden compensar con los aranceles impuestos como represalias y la volatilidad del mercado.

Estos aumentos en los aranceles se compensarían entre sí y el resultado final podría ser precios más altos para el consumidor y crecimiento más bajo debido a una menor actividad comercial, lo que significaría una situación donde todos pierden.

Aunque es poco probable, un entorno de guerra comercial podría reducir el PIB de Estados Unidos en 1.7 puntos porcentuales y aumentar la inflación en 0.4 de un punto porcentual anualmente. En este caso, el impacto sería suficiente para obligar a la Reserva Federal de Estados Unidos a interrumpir su endurecimiento de las tasas de interés y a elegir entre suprimir el exceso de inflación y dar apoyo a un crecimiento bajo.

Los efectos secundarios de los aranceles podrían poner a Estados Unidos en una posición rezagada

Además de estas estimaciones del impacto directo en la economía estadounidense, una menor cooperación en el intercambio comercial durante los siguientes años podría dañar los flujos de inversión internacionales y poner a los Estados Unidos en una posición rezagada en vez de destacada en futuras alianzas económicas y políticas.

Los inversionistas pueden suponer de manera razonable que la retórica comercial continuará siendo una fuente de volatilidad durante 2018 a medida que la administración de Trump intenta establecer un nuevo rumbo en la política comercial sin desencadenar represalias de los socios comerciales globales de Estados Unidos.

 

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Could it be that there were enemies Sneak attack The scarred face couldn t help but feel nervous, and rushed outside quickly.Although he suffered a loss at the hands of Chen Biwang, he seemed to be very unconvinced.

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He mobilized his true energy and puffed up his robes, directly blocking the fan bone.The three members of the Yin Yang Sect were all at the sixth level of Qi Refining.

Everyone else knew In Qingyang s case, no one bothered him anymore, they just meditated and adjusted their breaths in the periphery.An immature purple striped fruit If you can get the foundation building pill recipe and collect enough materials before building the foundation, you can also try to refine the foundation building pill yourself.

Qingyang had long expected that the other party would be like this.Then he fell softly to the ground and spat out a mouthful.

However, pills are resistant to drug resistance. During his decades of Qi refining period, he took too many Qi Gathering pills.Otherwise, who would appear here for no reason Brother Qingyang, why is it you Liang Zhongtian suddenly said in surprise.

It seemed that Jinding Pavilion s statement that it was good at refining pills was indeed true.However, the poison in the second brother s body could not be detoxified, and the situation in the second period became worse and worse.

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Qingyang did not dare to try again. Not only was it related to whether he could recover his cultivation level, but also because the external restrictions had too strong a psychological effect on the iron armed monkey and the alcoholic queen bee.Although the alcoholic queen bee is at a higher level, Qingyang is not sure of victory.

It took a long time to gradually dissipate. go. This is the advantage of the five element all attribute method.Then Qingyang came to the bottom of the mountain wall and walked through the entire cave.

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As soon as he threatened, the remaining Yin Yang Sect disciple immediately figured out the situation in front of him.Kou Yuchang said in fear, I Do you want me to say it a second time Qin Ruyan said.

The second uncle of the Qin family said he didn t care.It is said that Jingfeng Pavilion accidentally discovered it when they were exterminating a group of Jingshan Rats.

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Since the death of the Blood Demon Ancestor more than 2,000 years ago, there have been no Nascent Soul monks in the Kyushu Continent for more than 2,000 years.Although it is underground, the light inside is good.

The Golden Core cultivator is so powerful that he is almost invincible.However, nineteen years later, he has only advanced to two levels of cultivation.

It almost lost half of its life. If Qingyang hadn t taken action in time, I m afraid Tie s life would have been lost.Twenty two spiritual stones a year are almost the same as the salary of Senior Brother Cai who is in charge of him in the Farming Institute.

The worst he can do is wait until the next level However, Qingyang also thought of another problem, that is, his qualifications are not very good.Moreover, the location is relatively narrow and cannot accommodate many people at one time.

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In the entire Demon Monkey Cave, there were many corpses of demon monkeys lying everywhere.What s more, my cultivation level has reached the third level of Foundation Establishment.

If you put it to your nose and smell it, it seems that the injuries on your body are getting better.If the other more ruthless monks just took care of them after finishing their work, why would they give them the Immortal Immortal Order They are just a few mortals.

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Not only did you successfully complete the mission, We also found out about the Tao family s Blood Demon Cult and didn t spread the poison of the Blood Demon Gong.Is it the lair of monsters Or a treasure trove Or is it a dangerous place in Yinfeng Gorge that needs attention Qingyang couldn t help but hesitate, should he go and take a look This Yinfeng Gorge is extremely dangerous.

However, mosquito legs are also meat. Not to mention the contents, just such a large piece of spiritual wood used to Male Enhancement Coach 14 [6bzhCRrrj6g] - Digital Writing make the puppet can be sold for several spiritual stones.A fourth level monster does not give the opponent a chance to entangle itself.

everyone only walked a few dozen feet away. But at this time, the passage has also come to an end.It was really infuriating. What Yu Mengmiao said makes sense.

If it is entangled by this colorful ribbon, Hui Xuzi will completely lose its ability to resist.Even if I don t come, she won t dare. How are you doing I m a little curious, what s going on between you and Yu Mengmiao How could you make that old aunt who has no love Understanding and Treating Sleep Disorders at the Jefferson Sleep Disorders Center [JCYlJpmDXp0] - Digital Writing get so angry Seeing Elder Wusi asking, Qingyang didn t dare to hide it, and asked him and Yu Mengmiao The story of how they met and separated was told, but some key things about the real Netherworld and so on were hidden.

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However, the forest piercing beast was not dead, it was just stunned.which can be regarded as giving the two people a way to obtain the Foundation Establishment Pill besides the inner court competition.