El anuncio reciente del presidente Donald Trump sobre los aranceles a las importaciones de acero, aluminio y una variedad de productos de consumo de China desató un frenesí de preocupación por el riesgo de una guerra comercial global. Sin embargo, Vanguard espera que el impacto económico directo por los nuevos aranceles sea mínimo. Creemos que la importancia real que tienen radica en las implicaciones más amplias y a plazo más largo para la política de comercio internacional.
Los aranceles en contexto
La administración de Trump anunció primero que iba a imponer aranceles de 25% a las importaciones de acero y 10% a las de aluminio. Estos productos en conjunto representan menos de 2% de las importaciones totales de Estados Unidos. Ese estimado aún es alto debido a que Canadá, México y otros aliados, que incluyen la Unión Europea, quedaron exentos temporalmente.
La administración anunció el 22 de marzo un paquete de aranceles y sanciones comerciales sobre los bienes importados de China. Al igual que los aranceles en el acero y el aluminio, estos impuestos probablemente afectarían solo a una pequeña porción del comercio bilateral entre las dos economías más grandes del mundo.
Para entender mejor cómo se vería una escalada de estas disputas, es útil considerar el intercambio comercial en un contexto histórico y global.
Los aranceles de Estados Unidos han estado disminuyendo desde la década de 1930 y se han mantenido por debajo de 5% durante más de cuatro décadas, tal como se muestra a continuación. De acuerdo con el último informe sobre aranceles de la Organización Mundial de Comercio, el promedio actual de aranceles en Estados Unidos es 3.5%, el segundo más bajo en el G20.
Nota: Los datos mostrados son anuales del año 1900 al año 2015.
Fuente: Comisión de Comercio Internacional de Estados Unidos
Aunque Estados Unidos tienen medidas comerciales establecidas que no son aranceles como las protecciones antidumping y por seguridad nacional, continúa siendo uno de los países menos proteccionistas del mundo junto con los miembros de la Unión Europea.
Algunos observadores del mercado hacen una extrapolación del cambio en la política de los aranceles para indicar el inicio de una guerra comercial, similar al ciclo vicioso que desencadenó la infame Ley de Aranceles de Smoot-Hawley de 1930, que redujo dramáticamente el flujo comercial y el crecimiento económico en los primeros años de la Gran Depresión. Dada la historia de reducir las barreras comerciales y conociendo los beneficios de la integración económica, Vanguard cree que es poco probable que la administración de los Estados Unidos modifique dramáticamente la política comercial debido al riesgo de alterar el crecimiento económico.
Disminuyen rápidamente los beneficios de un ligero aumento en los aranceles
Aunque damos una probabilidad baja a una guerra comercial, el análisis de Vanguard en el documento de investigación de los Asuntos macroeconómicos mundiales en 2017 («Situación comercial: es complicado») calculaba el impacto de diversas escaladas en las tensiones comerciales. Un ligero aumento en los aranceles tiene un beneficio marginal a corto plazo en la economía que los impone si no hay represalias. Sin embargo, estos beneficios se reducen rápidamente y se pueden compensar con los aranceles impuestos como represalias y la volatilidad del mercado.
Estos aumentos en los aranceles se compensarían entre sí y el resultado final podría ser precios más altos para el consumidor y crecimiento más bajo debido a una menor actividad comercial, lo que significaría una situación donde todos pierden.
Aunque es poco probable, un entorno de guerra comercial podría reducir el PIB de Estados Unidos en 1.7 puntos porcentuales y aumentar la inflación en 0.4 de un punto porcentual anualmente. En este caso, el impacto sería suficiente para obligar a la Reserva Federal de Estados Unidos a interrumpir su endurecimiento de las tasas de interés y a elegir entre suprimir el exceso de inflación y dar apoyo a un crecimiento bajo.
Los efectos secundarios de los aranceles podrían poner a Estados Unidos en una posición rezagada
Además de estas estimaciones del impacto directo en la economía estadounidense, una menor cooperación en el intercambio comercial durante los siguientes años podría dañar los flujos de inversión internacionales y poner a los Estados Unidos en una posición rezagada en vez de destacada en futuras alianzas económicas y políticas.
Los inversionistas pueden suponer de manera razonable que la retórica comercial continuará siendo una fuente de volatilidad durante 2018 a medida que la administración de Trump intenta establecer un nuevo rumbo en la política comercial sin desencadenar represalias de los socios comerciales globales de Estados Unidos.
El arco eléctrico es uno de los fenómenos más peligrosos que pueden presentarse en los sistemas eléctricos de potencia. Los daños producidos pueden ser muy graves y dado que éste surge en cuestión de segundos, para un operador es prácticamente imposible ponerse a salvo al originarse.
Los chatbots ya han empezado a infiltrarse en el mercado a un nivel básico, pero en el futuro podrían convertirse en nuestra fuente de conversación más común.
La fabricación ecológica no solo es esencial para abordar desafíos ambientales, sino que también ofrece beneficios comerciales significativos, desde la reducción de costos hasta la mejora de la percepción de la marca y la atracción de nuevos talentos comprometidos con la sostenibilidad.
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Ordinary monks do not have extremely high speed flying boats.The next experiment is the Fire Bomb Technique. This meaning is the simplest.
He didn t dare to use the trophies of the foundation building monks, but the trophies of the two late stage Qi Refining monks of the Holy Ice Sect didn t matter.If it weren t for the strength you showed in the previous competition, I would have put you in the early transfer plan.
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I asked Master Hu, the formation master, to expand this place for you Elder Su explained with a smile.Li Shiming didn t have third grade metal and couldn t practice the Sword Demon Secret Code.
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Yin Shilan s spiritual thoughts were inspired by Elder Yin s use of a certain third grade spiritual object.They were nothing in front of the sect monks, so they might as well be called Lieshan Four Cats.
Still returning from the original route, this time Li Shiming used the drone in the sky to carefully avoid pedestrians.
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This is like a wooden sword and an iron sword of the same size.He returned to the teahouse, and the Qingxia Baoding was put aside.
This was not Senior Brother Lou asking him, but the audio channel for Senior Monk to discuss matters.If the place where Ancestor Yuanying was was not safe, then there would be no safe place in the world of cultivating immortals.
Extremely repressive. Most of the sword cultivator s combat power lies in his natal flying sword.The spatial fluctuations caused by Chichi Tianya were covered up by the Samadhi Divine Wind magical power.
And in these spaces, there are not only fourth grade creatures, but also a large amount of resources.When he saw Li Shiming standing on the deck clearly, his expression was full of surprise.
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Li Yuanba s sword cut the thunder cloud into countless small pieces.
As for the epic warrior. As long as you don t touch the third prince Baal, the other party will not mess around.It s because he has become too small The horror of the artifact was beyond the imagination of a hero who didn t even have treasures before his rebirth.
With an average of two lives, the archangel is extremely difficult to deal with.Soon, all the dozens of iron pillars at the sewage outlet were cut off, allowing people to enter and exit freely.
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Memphela and Ellie also wanted to see the strength of the two flying dragons.Damn, even the soldiers were bribed, they want me to freeze to death This is a very small camp, with about twenty tents, surrounded by horse drawn carriages.
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As the army advances, it will occasionally encounter harassment from scattered underground monsters.Because not only did he not look ugly at all, he was still extremely calm.
The So close to the end of the world used by Tulei Yuanying indirectly drives the great monk Luo Pei to move in space.The level of detail is almost nanny style teaching.
It may seem like a lot of action, but it s actually done in an instant.He is waiting for Xiao Leiyin Temple s reply. If the other party hands over his mission target, then he will take away the mission target and no longer embarrass Xiao Leiyin Temple.
The newly added hell creatures are completely integrated into the battle formation as soon as they enter the battle formation.Although Li Shiming has no actual position, the emperor s rewards are abundant.
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was taken out. Shura Martial God Wan Zheng took the big jade bottle in a daze, and Li Shiming put all the Qingli Wuyun Dan in a big jade bottle.On the thirty third heaven, Great Monk Chang Jue and Great Monk Luo Pei were facing each other, but as time passed little by little, Great Monk Chang Jue felt something was wrong.
Among them, there are 330 high level Qingli Wuyun Pills given to senior brothers Wan Zheng and Lu Shi, and the rest belong to him.But even so, their seven great monks were still slower than Li Shiming.
Fuente: Vanguard.
