El anuncio reciente del presidente Donald Trump sobre los aranceles a las importaciones de acero, aluminio y una variedad de productos de consumo de China desató un frenesí de preocupación por el riesgo de una guerra comercial global. Sin embargo, Vanguard espera que el impacto económico directo por los nuevos aranceles sea mínimo. Creemos que la importancia real que tienen radica en las implicaciones más amplias y a plazo más largo para la política de comercio internacional.
Los aranceles en contexto
La administración de Trump anunció primero que iba a imponer aranceles de 25% a las importaciones de acero y 10% a las de aluminio. Estos productos en conjunto representan menos de 2% de las importaciones totales de Estados Unidos. Ese estimado aún es alto debido a que Canadá, México y otros aliados, que incluyen la Unión Europea, quedaron exentos temporalmente.
La administración anunció el 22 de marzo un paquete de aranceles y sanciones comerciales sobre los bienes importados de China. Al igual que los aranceles en el acero y el aluminio, estos impuestos probablemente afectarían solo a una pequeña porción del comercio bilateral entre las dos economías más grandes del mundo.
Para entender mejor cómo se vería una escalada de estas disputas, es útil considerar el intercambio comercial en un contexto histórico y global.
Los aranceles de Estados Unidos han estado disminuyendo desde la década de 1930 y se han mantenido por debajo de 5% durante más de cuatro décadas, tal como se muestra a continuación. De acuerdo con el último informe sobre aranceles de la Organización Mundial de Comercio, el promedio actual de aranceles en Estados Unidos es 3.5%, el segundo más bajo en el G20.
Nota: Los datos mostrados son anuales del año 1900 al año 2015.
Fuente: Comisión de Comercio Internacional de Estados Unidos
Aunque Estados Unidos tienen medidas comerciales establecidas que no son aranceles como las protecciones antidumping y por seguridad nacional, continúa siendo uno de los países menos proteccionistas del mundo junto con los miembros de la Unión Europea.
Algunos observadores del mercado hacen una extrapolación del cambio en la política de los aranceles para indicar el inicio de una guerra comercial, similar al ciclo vicioso que desencadenó la infame Ley de Aranceles de Smoot-Hawley de 1930, que redujo dramáticamente el flujo comercial y el crecimiento económico en los primeros años de la Gran Depresión. Dada la historia de reducir las barreras comerciales y conociendo los beneficios de la integración económica, Vanguard cree que es poco probable que la administración de los Estados Unidos modifique dramáticamente la política comercial debido al riesgo de alterar el crecimiento económico.
Disminuyen rápidamente los beneficios de un ligero aumento en los aranceles
Aunque damos una probabilidad baja a una guerra comercial, el análisis de Vanguard en el documento de investigación de los Asuntos macroeconómicos mundiales en 2017 («Situación comercial: es complicado») calculaba el impacto de diversas escaladas en las tensiones comerciales. Un ligero aumento en los aranceles tiene un beneficio marginal a corto plazo en la economía que los impone si no hay represalias. Sin embargo, estos beneficios se reducen rápidamente y se pueden compensar con los aranceles impuestos como represalias y la volatilidad del mercado.
Estos aumentos en los aranceles se compensarían entre sí y el resultado final podría ser precios más altos para el consumidor y crecimiento más bajo debido a una menor actividad comercial, lo que significaría una situación donde todos pierden.
Aunque es poco probable, un entorno de guerra comercial podría reducir el PIB de Estados Unidos en 1.7 puntos porcentuales y aumentar la inflación en 0.4 de un punto porcentual anualmente. En este caso, el impacto sería suficiente para obligar a la Reserva Federal de Estados Unidos a interrumpir su endurecimiento de las tasas de interés y a elegir entre suprimir el exceso de inflación y dar apoyo a un crecimiento bajo.
Los efectos secundarios de los aranceles podrían poner a Estados Unidos en una posición rezagada
Además de estas estimaciones del impacto directo en la economía estadounidense, una menor cooperación en el intercambio comercial durante los siguientes años podría dañar los flujos de inversión internacionales y poner a los Estados Unidos en una posición rezagada en vez de destacada en futuras alianzas económicas y políticas.
Los inversionistas pueden suponer de manera razonable que la retórica comercial continuará siendo una fuente de volatilidad durante 2018 a medida que la administración de Trump intenta establecer un nuevo rumbo en la política comercial sin desencadenar represalias de los socios comerciales globales de Estados Unidos.
Este 2018, Panda Express y toda la comunidad china da la bienvenida al Año del Perro, un signo caracterizado por la armonía en la vida familiar, el patriotismo y la lealtad.
, las organizaciones se enfrentan a retos críticos en la gestión de sus cadenas de suministro. Andrea Brody, directora de marketing de Riskonnect, destaca que la forma en que las empresas gestionan el riesgo hoy es fundamental para adaptarse a un entorno inestable que, según muchos líderes, no se estabilizará hasta después de 2024.
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Master Guihe used his own method to suppress the bottom of the box.Many of them were things that even Qingyang had never seen before.
Putting aside everything else, the battle on the city wall was extremely fierce from the beginning.Instead, it consumed a lot of resources. I had to find a way to make some money back.
When the goatee saw that Qingyang was silent, he thought he was dissatisfied, so he introduced a few more items, but the conditions of those items were similar to the Soul Flirting Leaf, so Qingyang naturally lacked interest.Boy, I have a serious discussion with you because I think highly of you.
At the same time, Baimei Ghost King also said temptingly In addition to the status, I can give you everything else, but for our monks, what does the status mean Benefits are the most important.There won t be any slights. Several people quickly reached an agreement to study the Blood Demon Sect s tome first, and three days later mobilize all hands to launch a general attack on the Blood Demon Sect s headquarters located inside the Qingfeng Palace.
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Familiar people can still recognize it. Sometimes, it must be combined with superb illusions to confuse people.Cultivation has little effect, and it will all depend on the fruit of that peach tree in the future.
They might even know that Hua Qingyao was not in the cave.Everyone else recognized what Qingyang said. Only Wei Haoran of the Yin Yang Sect was a little unwilling.
They almost got the spirit wine before, but this time If we go again, the chances should be much greater than before.Therefore, some good people had already systematically summarized and compared the strength, common methods, battle experience, etc.
Their strength should be in the middle stage of Qi refining, but the number is much different.At this time, it was too late to block it with the fire lotus lamp.
At this moment, a burst of sound suddenly came from the stone hall.What were General Chuanlin and Hui Xuzi doing here Judging from their appearance, it was obvious that they were not here to visit Hua Qingyao.
Qingyang did not dare to neglect, and quickly took out his magic sword and used the Three Yuan Sword Formation to block the halberd.When he saw it, he quickly struggled to sit up, raised his fists at Qingyang, and said, It turns out that the seniors from the Seven Immortal Sects are here.
Could it be that there were enemies Sneak attack The scarred face couldn t help but feel nervous, and rushed outside quickly.Although he suffered a loss at the hands of Chen Biwang, he seemed to be very unconvinced.
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He mobilized his true energy and puffed up his robes, directly blocking the fan bone.The three members of the Yin Yang Sect were all at the sixth level of Qi Refining.
Everyone else knew In Qingyang s case, no one bothered him anymore, they just meditated and adjusted their breaths in the periphery.An immature purple striped fruit If you can get the foundation building pill recipe and collect enough materials before building the foundation, you can also try to refine the foundation building pill yourself.
Qingyang had long expected that the other party would be like this.Then he fell softly to the ground and spat out a mouthful.
However, pills are resistant to drug resistance. During his decades of Qi refining period, he took too many Qi Gathering pills.Otherwise, who would appear here for no reason Brother Qingyang, why is it you Liang Zhongtian suddenly said in surprise.
It seemed that Jinding Pavilion s statement that it was good at refining pills was indeed true.However, the poison in the second brother s body could not be detoxified, and the situation in the second period became worse and worse.
Qingyang did not dare to try again. Not only was it related to whether he could recover his cultivation level, but also because the external restrictions had too strong a psychological effect on the iron armed monkey and the alcoholic queen bee.Although the alcoholic queen bee is at a higher level, Qingyang is not sure of victory.
It took a long time to gradually dissipate. go. This is the advantage of the five element all attribute method.Then Qingyang came to the bottom of the mountain wall and walked through the entire cave.
As soon as he threatened, the remaining Yin Yang Sect disciple immediately figured out the situation in front of him.Kou Yuchang said in fear, I
Do you want me to say it a second time Qin Ruyan said.
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Since the death of the Blood Demon Ancestor more than 2,000 years ago, there have been no Nascent Soul monks in the Kyushu Continent for more than 2,000 years.Although it is underground, the light inside is good.
The Golden Core cultivator is so powerful that he is almost invincible.However, nineteen years later, he has only advanced to two levels of cultivation.
It almost lost half of its life. If Qingyang hadn t taken action in time, I m afraid Tie s life would have been lost.Twenty two spiritual stones a year are almost the same as the salary of Senior Brother Cai who is in charge of him in the Farming Institute.
The worst he can do is wait until the next level
However, Qingyang also thought of another problem, that is, his qualifications are not very good.Moreover, the location is relatively narrow and cannot accommodate many people at one time.
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In the entire Demon Monkey Cave, there were many corpses of demon monkeys lying everywhere.What s more, my cultivation level has reached the third level of Foundation Establishment.
If you put it to your nose and smell it, it seems that the injuries on your body are getting better.If the other more ruthless monks just took care of them after finishing their work, why would they give them the Immortal Immortal Order They are just a few mortals.
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Not only did you successfully complete the mission, We also found out about the Tao family s Blood Demon Cult and didn t spread the poison of the Blood Demon Gong.Is it the lair of monsters Or a treasure trove Or is it a dangerous place in Yinfeng Gorge that needs attention Qingyang couldn t help but hesitate, should he go and take a look This Yinfeng Gorge is extremely dangerous.
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However, the forest piercing beast was not dead, it was just stunned.which can be regarded as giving the two people a way to obtain the Foundation Establishment Pill besides the inner court competition.