¿Qué tan probable es una guerra comercial mundial?

Fuente: Vanguard.

El anuncio reciente del presidente Donald Trump sobre los aranceles a las importaciones de acero, aluminio y una variedad de productos de consumo de China desató un frenesí de preocupación por el riesgo de una guerra comercial global. Sin embargo, Vanguard espera que el impacto económico directo por los nuevos aranceles sea mínimo. Creemos que la importancia real que tienen radica en las implicaciones más amplias y a plazo más largo para la política de comercio internacional.

Los aranceles en contexto

La administración de Trump anunció primero que iba a imponer aranceles de 25% a las importaciones de acero y 10% a las de aluminio. Estos productos en conjunto representan menos de 2% de las importaciones totales de Estados Unidos. Ese estimado aún es alto debido a que Canadá, México y otros aliados, que incluyen la Unión Europea, quedaron exentos temporalmente.

La administración anunció el 22 de marzo un paquete de aranceles y sanciones comerciales sobre los bienes importados de China. Al igual que los aranceles en el acero y el aluminio, estos impuestos probablemente afectarían solo a una pequeña porción del comercio bilateral entre las dos economías más grandes del mundo.

Para entender mejor cómo se vería una escalada de estas disputas, es útil considerar el intercambio comercial en un contexto histórico y global.

Los aranceles de Estados Unidos han estado disminuyendo desde la década de 1930 y se han mantenido por debajo de 5% durante más de cuatro décadas, tal como se muestra a continuación. De acuerdo con el último informe sobre aranceles de la Organización Mundial de Comercio, el promedio actual de aranceles en Estados Unidos es 3.5%, el segundo más bajo en el G20.

Nota: Los datos mostrados son anuales del año 1900 al año 2015.
Fuente: Comisión de Comercio Internacional de Estados Unidos

Aunque Estados Unidos tienen medidas comerciales establecidas que no son aranceles como las protecciones antidumping y por seguridad nacional, continúa siendo uno de los países menos proteccionistas del mundo junto con los miembros de la Unión Europea.

Algunos observadores del mercado hacen una extrapolación del cambio en la política de los aranceles para indicar el inicio de una guerra comercial, similar al ciclo vicioso que desencadenó la infame Ley de Aranceles de Smoot-Hawley de 1930, que redujo dramáticamente el flujo comercial y el crecimiento económico en los primeros años de la Gran Depresión. Dada la historia de reducir las barreras comerciales y conociendo los beneficios de la integración económica, Vanguard cree que es poco probable que la administración de los Estados Unidos modifique dramáticamente la política comercial debido al riesgo de alterar el crecimiento económico.

Disminuyen rápidamente los beneficios de un ligero aumento en los aranceles

Aunque damos una probabilidad baja a una guerra comercial, el análisis de Vanguard en el documento de investigación de los Asuntos macroeconómicos mundiales en 2017 («Situación comercial: es complicado») calculaba el impacto de diversas escaladas en las tensiones comerciales. Un ligero aumento en los aranceles tiene un beneficio marginal a corto plazo en la economía que los impone si no hay represalias. Sin embargo, estos beneficios se reducen rápidamente y se pueden compensar con los aranceles impuestos como represalias y la volatilidad del mercado.

Estos aumentos en los aranceles se compensarían entre sí y el resultado final podría ser precios más altos para el consumidor y crecimiento más bajo debido a una menor actividad comercial, lo que significaría una situación donde todos pierden.

Aunque es poco probable, un entorno de guerra comercial podría reducir el PIB de Estados Unidos en 1.7 puntos porcentuales y aumentar la inflación en 0.4 de un punto porcentual anualmente. En este caso, el impacto sería suficiente para obligar a la Reserva Federal de Estados Unidos a interrumpir su endurecimiento de las tasas de interés y a elegir entre suprimir el exceso de inflación y dar apoyo a un crecimiento bajo.

Los efectos secundarios de los aranceles podrían poner a Estados Unidos en una posición rezagada

Además de estas estimaciones del impacto directo en la economía estadounidense, una menor cooperación en el intercambio comercial durante los siguientes años podría dañar los flujos de inversión internacionales y poner a los Estados Unidos en una posición rezagada en vez de destacada en futuras alianzas económicas y políticas.

Los inversionistas pueden suponer de manera razonable que la retórica comercial continuará siendo una fuente de volatilidad durante 2018 a medida que la administración de Trump intenta establecer un nuevo rumbo en la política comercial sin desencadenar represalias de los socios comerciales globales de Estados Unidos.

 

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Venerable White How Did Kelly Clarkson Lose Weight? The Best Tips to Try Before New Year’s Eve 2025 Dragon snorted coldly and ordered The three spiritual mountains near Zixiao Peak should be cleaned Go and ring the ancient bell in front of the Immortal Sect Hall to summon all the Immortal Sects above the middle stage of foundation building.There is no such evil Jindan strongman sitting in charge, and everyone will try to avoid casualties in the battle.

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He only opened the spiritual stage after several decades.In this case, how could it go bankrupt At this time, Su Ye saw the clerk from the store next door coming out to move things.

Now that Zhang Quan has escaped, the work of keeping watch in the cell has become easier again, and everyone is naturally happy.Moreover, it must be a local official and placed in Yanjing.

What came out of the sand and dust were white bones and skeletons one by one, arranged in a square formation, like Trip CBD Reviews: A Comprehensive Guide to CBD Drinks and Products (GKleV) an army.Su Ye listened a little confused and was still not sure what Haoran s righteousness was.

The air waves layer by layer are like ripples, constantly swaying towards the surroundings.I ll get off duty first. Su Ye yawned You guys are responsible for changing shifts.

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When Lin Huaizheng comes back, I will tell him that I approved it.It should be vulnerable to Keoni Hemp Gummies Reviews: A Comprehensive Analysis of Effectiveness and Benefits (xSGNU) a single blow. How could he fight with him While the man was thinking, he waved his hand, and suddenly the hurricane was powerful, the world was dark, Transforming Lives in the USA: How 7 Busy Professionals Achieved Weight Loss with Apple Cider Vinegar and the dust that had just been blown Soaking Feet in Apple Cider Vinegar and Baking Soda for Weight Loss: 5 College Students’ Success Stories in 2025 away by Su Ye s fist was rolled up again.

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Otherwise, how could something like elixir have value Another good news is the second stage of foundation building As the effect of the medicine Biocore CBD Gummies Reviews: Benefits, Effects, and User Experiences dissipated, a large amount of spiritual energy was attracted to form a spiritual vortex in Su Ye s body, and Su Ye s cultivation also broke through.Well, in the eyes of many people, those things should undoubtedly be garbage.

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What is this called This is called Run Su Ye was in a good mood and brought a bottle of wine over.The accounts have only been settled in two parts now.

The battle began again Wild world, Black Mountain. You still Lizzo’s Weight Loss Transformation: Insights and Impacts can t contact Yunyicheng The summons is normal.The next moment, the red light turned into a beam of light and flew forward.

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Unfortunately, there is only one. But in the next moment, a sudden change occurred Just when Su Ye thought that the mutation pill was just an enhanced version of Qingfeng San, the CBD Gummies Laredo TX: A Comprehensive Guide to the Benefits and Uses of CBD Gummies in Laredo, Texas (tbToR) spiritual energy that had completed its operation did not flow towards the dantian, but rushed directly towards the spiritual vortex in Su Ye s body.

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In fact, the Double Ninth Festival Poetry Festival is an The Benefits of Steve Harvey Sex Gummies: A Comprehensive Guide to Enhanced Intimacy and Wellness (dphNb) annual event and is naturally very lively every year.It is worthy of the Dali Temple Minister s personal arrest.

In addition, His Majesty will also give it to you, but you also need to have a masterpiece that will shock the whole world.Neither Luo Qingqing nor Chen Xian can count on them.

Lightning flashed and thundered in the dark sky, and the bolts of lightning were like dragons soaring into the clouds, which looked ferocious and terrifying.