El anuncio reciente del presidente Donald Trump sobre los aranceles a las importaciones de acero, aluminio y una variedad de productos de consumo de China desató un frenesí de preocupación por el riesgo de una guerra comercial global. Sin embargo, Vanguard espera que el impacto económico directo por los nuevos aranceles sea mínimo. Creemos que la importancia real que tienen radica en las implicaciones más amplias y a plazo más largo para la política de comercio internacional.
Los aranceles en contexto
La administración de Trump anunció primero que iba a imponer aranceles de 25% a las importaciones de acero y 10% a las de aluminio. Estos productos en conjunto representan menos de 2% de las importaciones totales de Estados Unidos. Ese estimado aún es alto debido a que Canadá, México y otros aliados, que incluyen la Unión Europea, quedaron exentos temporalmente.
La administración anunció el 22 de marzo un paquete de aranceles y sanciones comerciales sobre los bienes importados de China. Al igual que los aranceles en el acero y el aluminio, estos impuestos probablemente afectarían solo a una pequeña porción del comercio bilateral entre las dos economías más grandes del mundo.
Para entender mejor cómo se vería una escalada de estas disputas, es útil considerar el intercambio comercial en un contexto histórico y global.
Los aranceles de Estados Unidos han estado disminuyendo desde la década de 1930 y se han mantenido por debajo de 5% durante más de cuatro décadas, tal como se muestra a continuación. De acuerdo con el último informe sobre aranceles de la Organización Mundial de Comercio, el promedio actual de aranceles en Estados Unidos es 3.5%, el segundo más bajo en el G20.
Nota: Los datos mostrados son anuales del año 1900 al año 2015.
Fuente: Comisión de Comercio Internacional de Estados Unidos
Aunque Estados Unidos tienen medidas comerciales establecidas que no son aranceles como las protecciones antidumping y por seguridad nacional, continúa siendo uno de los países menos proteccionistas del mundo junto con los miembros de la Unión Europea.
Algunos observadores del mercado hacen una extrapolación del cambio en la política de los aranceles para indicar el inicio de una guerra comercial, similar al ciclo vicioso que desencadenó la infame Ley de Aranceles de Smoot-Hawley de 1930, que redujo dramáticamente el flujo comercial y el crecimiento económico en los primeros años de la Gran Depresión. Dada la historia de reducir las barreras comerciales y conociendo los beneficios de la integración económica, Vanguard cree que es poco probable que la administración de los Estados Unidos modifique dramáticamente la política comercial debido al riesgo de alterar el crecimiento económico.
Disminuyen rápidamente los beneficios de un ligero aumento en los aranceles
Aunque damos una probabilidad baja a una guerra comercial, el análisis de Vanguard en el documento de investigación de los Asuntos macroeconómicos mundiales en 2017 («Situación comercial: es complicado») calculaba el impacto de diversas escaladas en las tensiones comerciales. Un ligero aumento en los aranceles tiene un beneficio marginal a corto plazo en la economía que los impone si no hay represalias. Sin embargo, estos beneficios se reducen rápidamente y se pueden compensar con los aranceles impuestos como represalias y la volatilidad del mercado.
Estos aumentos en los aranceles se compensarían entre sí y el resultado final podría ser precios más altos para el consumidor y crecimiento más bajo debido a una menor actividad comercial, lo que significaría una situación donde todos pierden.
Aunque es poco probable, un entorno de guerra comercial podría reducir el PIB de Estados Unidos en 1.7 puntos porcentuales y aumentar la inflación en 0.4 de un punto porcentual anualmente. En este caso, el impacto sería suficiente para obligar a la Reserva Federal de Estados Unidos a interrumpir su endurecimiento de las tasas de interés y a elegir entre suprimir el exceso de inflación y dar apoyo a un crecimiento bajo.
Los efectos secundarios de los aranceles podrían poner a Estados Unidos en una posición rezagada
Además de estas estimaciones del impacto directo en la economía estadounidense, una menor cooperación en el intercambio comercial durante los siguientes años podría dañar los flujos de inversión internacionales y poner a los Estados Unidos en una posición rezagada en vez de destacada en futuras alianzas económicas y políticas.
Los inversionistas pueden suponer de manera razonable que la retórica comercial continuará siendo una fuente de volatilidad durante 2018 a medida que la administración de Trump intenta establecer un nuevo rumbo en la política comercial sin desencadenar represalias de los socios comerciales globales de Estados Unidos.
Proporcionar una experiencia sin fisuras es clave para las aerolíneas: 94% calificó la racionalización de los servicios en una sola aplicación como una prioridad, con 58% calificando esto de alta prioridad.
Cada decodificador tiene contenido educativo almacenado precargado y 5GB de internet que mensualmente serán recargados para uso y consumo de los contenidos del programa Hogar Conectado.
Esto es lo que finalmente impulsa la revolución tecnológica: El desarrollo del conocimiento con nuevo pensamiento crucial es posible utilizando innovación previa.
El presidente de la Comisión de Educación, Gordon Brown, y Shakira Mebarak, miembro de la Comisión, hicieron un llamado urgente a los líderes mundiales para que incluyan a la educación en la agenda de la cumbre de este año.
The probability of picking up a treasure by betting on one or two is small.Don t be too domineering in life. You might get kicked out of the gods.
Due to the establishment of the Daily Project plan, the photovoltaic new energy sector experienced a sharp rise at that time, but then began to decline.The comments exploded, and the discussion heated up to a new high.
4 trillion. When the market plummeted in mid June 2015, even the listed subsidiaries of Qunxingxing had to follow the market in a round Lauren Manzo Weight Loss: 4 Autumn Habits That Led to Her Success of killings.I was still making fun of artificial mental retardation before
Classmate Xiao Ling tremble, you ignorant human beings, let you underestimate me.
Currently, no smartphone has this technology. In Fang Hong s previous life, it was the newly released iPhone 5S phone released by Apple in 2013 that was equipped with Touch ID for fingerprint recognition for the first time.Looking at the Truly Keto Gummies Shark Tank: Full Review and Analysis countless other stocks that have been cut in half and then cut in half in the past two years, at least they are cut in half.
Regenerating the life support system, setting up a space vegetable garden on the space station, and even raising livestock and the like are definitely not possible during the standard version.733 billion yuan, and the market value was 2. 321242 billion yuan.
Moreover, Europe itself is Blue Vibe Gummies for ED: Merging Flavor with Function still plagued by a debt crisis and has not yet emerged from the economic crisis.Now the market index is at 2150 points, which has increased by 200 points
Entering mid December, the first batch of S680 mobile processor chip production capacity has begun to be delivered to Semiconductor Manufacturing Co.
His foundation is also better than that of most people, but after all, he was not a scientist who specialized in scientific research in his previous life.Because KetoBlastGummies: Blasting Through Ketosis with Ease high end products are expensive, shipments must be small because they are expensive.
13 yuan. The trading volume throughout the day increased to 3.However, the scale of new online allocations has reached tens of billions, and it is hard to say whether the fundraising can be completed.
This was considered a second verification. If it matches, it means that the material can be confirmed to be true if it does not match, it means that one of them must be false, or even both of them are false.65 yuan, an increase of 29. 90 compared with the opening price.
m. Aoming Technology issued a major announcement in the evening Announcement on Suspension of Planning for Reorganization and Listing Transactions The company and all members of the board of directors guarantee that the information disclosed is true and accurate.90. It was another day full Gesund abnehmen: Methoden und Vorgehensweisen of short sellers. The price of Bitcoin fell from its historical high, with the cumulative drop reaching 67.
900 million yuan. Quantitative Capital, the most popular leading stock, also hit its daily limit strongly today.The bargain hunter who was originally eager to try called out Excuse me.
Each drone has a unique LED light, and each drone is equivalent to a pixel, which can image in the night sky.5 times, and it escaped from the top again. Chen Yu s net worth has soared to about 35 million.
At that time, the daily passenger flow was even much higher than this number, reaching as many as 600,000 to 700,000.However, the overall A share market is generally not optimistic, because overseas markets generally experience deep slumps during the Apple Cider Vinegar Gummies vs Liquid: Which One Works Faster for Fat Burning? holidays, which undoubtedly puts pressure on the first trading day of A shares in the Year of the Horse.
Because after there is a market, he can use gold coins to purchase basic resources, and he can also sell gold coins in exchange for Xia Yuan in reality, he negotiates and remits it to the other CBD Starter Essentials: Choosing the Best CBD Vape Starter Kits party.Storming a fortress is indeed extremely tragic for the attacker.
If it weren t for so many advantages, the arms wouldn t be qualified to be the protagonists on the battlefield.Therefore, the attack on Willow City can only be done in advance, not delayed.
boom A violent explosion sounded. Freya repeated her old trick and struck at the legs of the ultimate nine headed monster.After solving this problem, even if the cleanup mission is completed, he naturally does not need to retain his strength.
Plan changed, prepare to withdraw to Storm Go Keto Gummies Website: Buying Guide Fortress Zhao Hao ordered.Although black iron is far less valuable than precious minerals such as magic crystal, fine gold, and mithril, its advantage is that it is abundant and relatively easy to cast.
The other party is also preparing for the last stand here.Yingzhao and Suzaku, one holding a long handled war hammer and the other holding a spear of fire, lined up on the left and right to assist in the attack.
Following his command, more bomb dragons fell down, as if they wanted to drown everything.As for the war machine, it had already been taken care of by the Shadow Swordsman who was one step ahead.
It can only be said that the damage of the phantom is far less than that of the real body.The speed and dexterity alone are such a big surprise, let alone the combat power.
Even if the proportion is small, when the number of players increases, it will be a lot of income.He still left on Freya s restored golden dragon, but he was extremely wary of all kinds of attacks.
it is much better than the original history, right.If it were in another territory, it wouldn t be surprising if the monsters hadn t reached the fortress yet.
Just look at the current attributes of combat dwarves and you will understand why this special situation occurs.tread After landing, Zhao Hao continued to move forward.
After this leader hero is equipped with strategic treasures, the damage bonus will be even more exaggerated.The highlight comes at the end. Mane of the Divine Beast After equipped, the long range damage under command is increased by 20 , and the archery effect is increased by 20.
Freya Although before she opened the realm, her speed was not as fast as Feida, who could fly in half dragon form, but she was not too slow, and she could also use the moon blade mode to attack remotely.Thinking about it this way, except for Viking warriors and half elf archers, almost all types of soldiers must be brought.
On the other side, Zhao Hao and the summoned legion quickly killed the poisonous flies.The bones wrapped around Hulk s body The other end of the arm is connected to the bone altar
The Gold Coast Keto: Where to Buy Your Ketogenic Supplies cellar instantly turned into a strange ritual scene.
After all, the speed has been greatly improved after being converted into volume attributes, at least much stronger than the Royal Griffin.This mission is not to kill How Jessica Simpson Achieved Her Incredible Weight Loss Transformation people. The most important thing is to take down the port fortress and take away the loot as much as possible.
After all, the greatest function of the barrier is to control the fleet.After the dark flame bomb flew close, it exploded in mid air and turned into dots of dark flames that sprinkled on the two people who were fighting in a ball.
Sure enough, everyone has a life saving trump card, especially for back row professions like them.
Now Qingyang has completely lost his ability to resist.The three golden elixir followers brought by the Long Eyebrow Ghost King each took out a bottle of ointment and smeared it all over their bodies to make sure Over the Counter ED Pills at CVS: What to Consider there was no missing part.
Not everything Qingyang understands, but it can never be separated from its sect.Although he sent a signal to Qingyang for help, he still wanted to survive this transformation catastrophe on his own.
This time will probably be the last time they meet.The two golden elixir cultivators respectfully He said respectfully, and then Scientific Evaluation of CBD Gummies for ED: Reviews and Insights the two of them turned around and flew towards the way they came.
has now grown to 10,000 to 20,000, and the alcoholic queen bee has survived the catastrophe of transformation and has become a major help to Qingyang in the battle.After they die, their descendants may need Qingyang s care, so the three El Toro Gummies for ED: A Natural Solution for Enhanced Performance of them have long regarded Qingyang as a comrade, and they all respect Qingyang very much.
Qingyang knew that this was a new ghost shape in the Hundred Ghosts.x However, with the passage of time, Master Guihe gradually discovered something unusual.
In these years, he has been stuck in the early stage of Yuanying to the middle stage of Yuanying.Just looking at the surface, this dragon bone is fluttering with ashes, which is obviously due to Shopping for Solutions: Finding the Best CBD Gummies for ED on Amazon too much time and too much spiritual loss.
She raised her hand and said, I accept it. Zhenjun Feng Luan was very unwilling to give in, but she also knew that it was useless to be unwilling.If he gave up, he would not only lose an excellent opportunity, but he might also be killed by the other party.
Qingyang was now riding a tiger and was being held back by Master Guihe.Hearing Xuanjia Demon King s words, he couldn t help but blush and said, I was just careless.
finally reunited with the One horned Ghost King in Qingmang Mountain.This was terrible, such a potential enemy. nothing can be done to keep him alive.
It s a pity that the remaining people are all determined people.Qingyang also Locating Semaglutide Weight Loss Injections Near Me knew that this was what it should be, so he said I just said that this time I just happened to happen, and I will not stay in Jiuzhou Continent in the future.
Qingyang couldn t be tempted by the shopping bag, no matter how fancy the goatee s introduction was.he must get rid of the giant crocodile in the underworld and return to the river as soon as Apple Cider Vinegar Gummies: Oprah’s Choice for Wellness possible.
Instead of staying here and being hurt by others, it is better to find a way to break out of the Yellow Chen Earth Spider first.The alcoholic queen bee has a light body. Even if the dragon s roar limits her strength, her two wings Amazon’s Best CBD Gummies: 5 Highest-Rated Options for 2025 alone can buffer the downward trend, so she is hardly affected.
The main reason is that I want to see it, and at the same time, I can help the two brothers.
They forgot about their fatigue, used their magic weapons with all their strength, and launched the most violent attack.But things are different now. Li Yuanba used his achievements in space formation to completely make the Great Venerable Hongfa surrender.
The space isolation barrier is not difficult to arrange, but after he just came into contact with the space isolation barrier, he found that this space isolation barrier was not simple.place. There were at least five more rules of power contained in this breath, not to mention the quality of spiritual power revealed in the breath, which shocked Keto Clean Gummies: A New Approach to Clean Keto Eating him even more.
Li Yuanba ignored Wu Qi, and then the second Innate Yimu magical power was displayed, and green light fell on Wu Qi.This is a treasure. Although the reward required is too limited and it is a bit troublesome to find it, isn t it normal for an alchemy master Exercise for Belly Fat in 2025: 5 Moves That Help You Lose 25 Pounds with such a level of alchemy to have some special conditions Uncle Song was so excited that he sent two more fourth grade elixirs.
It s a return gift Monk Meng reacted the fastest. He put away a jade box with a smile and took out a jade talisman to send back.It is much easier for the weapon spirit to set up the formation.
Yuanba, after this mission is over, you should be able to retreat Brother Lou said through a message.Once you recognize the core of the cave, you will not be affected by the rules of the cave.
Li Yuanba did it How dare he do this Zhong Zhongzun said through gritted teeth.If a monk goes deep into the thundercloud, he will The Cider Vinegar Diet: How 150 Health Enthusiasts Are Losing Weight in 2025 find that the inside of the thundercloud is faintly transformed into a cutting space network formed by the Breaking Void Sword Intent breaking through the void.
When Li Shiming summoned the great monk Luo Pei, he found that the aura of the heavenly ghost was a little unstable.The golden shield magic weapon blocked the poison, but it was also eroded by the poison.
Sure enough, the powerful tea set is not just a decoration, but actually has a promoting effect on cultivation.He threw this top level fourth grade flying sword directly Nucentix Gummies: Precision Ketosis with Every Bite into the Lingbao Ten Thousand Swords Peak without even bothering to recognize its owner.
The effect of Sword Base can still be used. Nowadays, the fourth grade sword base in Li Yuanba s body is rarely used.Because Li Shiming s way of using the magical power is different from From Struggles to Success: Jelly Roll’s Inspiring Weight Loss Story other monks, he can use multiple brains to prepare the magical runes of the magical foot at the same time, so that he can use the magical power without any delay.
Li Shiming got information about Master Luo Pei from his clone Li Yuanba.Li Shiming was considered to have a small fortune, but he was still shocked when he saw the resources in the four long distance flying ships.
The method of collecting such spiritual treasures in the world of immortality has long been extremely mature.Li Yuanba would not let go of this opportunity. He waved his finger at the spiritual treasure Top 5 CBD Sleep Gummies for 2025: Rest Better Naturally Ten Thousand Swords Peak above his head.
His Nascent Soul was getting smaller and smaller. This was the result of the massive consumption of the Nascent Soul s energy.There are two weaker rules than the thunder Keto ACV Max: Maximizing Your Diet with Apple Cider Vinegar and lightning rules, namely the fire system rules and the wood system rules.
Li Shiming and Brother Hu stayed on the ruins of the Taichu Sect.No matter what kind of attack you are injured, you can recover instantly.
When they stopped five hundred meters away, a formation disk was thrown to the ground and activated at Trend Alert 2025: American Fitness Enthusiasts Turn to Detox Juices for Weight Loss Post-Workout the same time.Monk Wang He was silent for a moment. In fact, he also sensed the instability of the space crack, and under the attacks of the major monks, this instability continued to increase.
Just when the cave guardians stepped into the five meter range of Li Yuanba, their movements were obviously a beat slower, and their originally extremely fast attacks were at least twice as slow.This work is extremely troublesome, and each cleaning can only remove a very weak trace, but this work must be done.
But things turned out as they wished. It is estimated that the powerful person did not expect that Li Shiming s computer room space was an independent self contained How Do Vibez Keto Gummies Stack Up Against Olly Slim Probiotic Gummies? space and had no relationship with the world.He sensed the rare treasure of Glazed Golden Flower.
These two hundred fourth grade high level elixirs can completely allow him to make up for the time lost due to injuries.
Fuente: Vanguard.
