El anuncio reciente del presidente Donald Trump sobre los aranceles a las importaciones de acero, aluminio y una variedad de productos de consumo de China desató un frenesí de preocupación por el riesgo de una guerra comercial global. Sin embargo, Vanguard espera que el impacto económico directo por los nuevos aranceles sea mínimo. Creemos que la importancia real que tienen radica en las implicaciones más amplias y a plazo más largo para la política de comercio internacional.
Los aranceles en contexto
La administración de Trump anunció primero que iba a imponer aranceles de 25% a las importaciones de acero y 10% a las de aluminio. Estos productos en conjunto representan menos de 2% de las importaciones totales de Estados Unidos. Ese estimado aún es alto debido a que Canadá, México y otros aliados, que incluyen la Unión Europea, quedaron exentos temporalmente.
La administración anunció el 22 de marzo un paquete de aranceles y sanciones comerciales sobre los bienes importados de China. Al igual que los aranceles en el acero y el aluminio, estos impuestos probablemente afectarían solo a una pequeña porción del comercio bilateral entre las dos economías más grandes del mundo.
Para entender mejor cómo se vería una escalada de estas disputas, es útil considerar el intercambio comercial en un contexto histórico y global.
Los aranceles de Estados Unidos han estado disminuyendo desde la década de 1930 y se han mantenido por debajo de 5% durante más de cuatro décadas, tal como se muestra a continuación. De acuerdo con el último informe sobre aranceles de la Organización Mundial de Comercio, el promedio actual de aranceles en Estados Unidos es 3.5%, el segundo más bajo en el G20.
Nota: Los datos mostrados son anuales del año 1900 al año 2015.
Fuente: Comisión de Comercio Internacional de Estados Unidos
Aunque Estados Unidos tienen medidas comerciales establecidas que no son aranceles como las protecciones antidumping y por seguridad nacional, continúa siendo uno de los países menos proteccionistas del mundo junto con los miembros de la Unión Europea.
Algunos observadores del mercado hacen una extrapolación del cambio en la política de los aranceles para indicar el inicio de una guerra comercial, similar al ciclo vicioso que desencadenó la infame Ley de Aranceles de Smoot-Hawley de 1930, que redujo dramáticamente el flujo comercial y el crecimiento económico en los primeros años de la Gran Depresión. Dada la historia de reducir las barreras comerciales y conociendo los beneficios de la integración económica, Vanguard cree que es poco probable que la administración de los Estados Unidos modifique dramáticamente la política comercial debido al riesgo de alterar el crecimiento económico.
Disminuyen rápidamente los beneficios de un ligero aumento en los aranceles
Aunque damos una probabilidad baja a una guerra comercial, el análisis de Vanguard en el documento de investigación de los Asuntos macroeconómicos mundiales en 2017 («Situación comercial: es complicado») calculaba el impacto de diversas escaladas en las tensiones comerciales. Un ligero aumento en los aranceles tiene un beneficio marginal a corto plazo en la economía que los impone si no hay represalias. Sin embargo, estos beneficios se reducen rápidamente y se pueden compensar con los aranceles impuestos como represalias y la volatilidad del mercado.
Estos aumentos en los aranceles se compensarían entre sí y el resultado final podría ser precios más altos para el consumidor y crecimiento más bajo debido a una menor actividad comercial, lo que significaría una situación donde todos pierden.
Aunque es poco probable, un entorno de guerra comercial podría reducir el PIB de Estados Unidos en 1.7 puntos porcentuales y aumentar la inflación en 0.4 de un punto porcentual anualmente. En este caso, el impacto sería suficiente para obligar a la Reserva Federal de Estados Unidos a interrumpir su endurecimiento de las tasas de interés y a elegir entre suprimir el exceso de inflación y dar apoyo a un crecimiento bajo.
Los efectos secundarios de los aranceles podrían poner a Estados Unidos en una posición rezagada
Además de estas estimaciones del impacto directo en la economía estadounidense, una menor cooperación en el intercambio comercial durante los siguientes años podría dañar los flujos de inversión internacionales y poner a los Estados Unidos en una posición rezagada en vez de destacada en futuras alianzas económicas y políticas.
Los inversionistas pueden suponer de manera razonable que la retórica comercial continuará siendo una fuente de volatilidad durante 2018 a medida que la administración de Trump intenta establecer un nuevo rumbo en la política comercial sin desencadenar represalias de los socios comerciales globales de Estados Unidos.
El flujo de migrantes calificados ha contribuido a un ligero descenso en el promedio total del índice de este año. Es la primera vez que se ha reducido el promedio general del índice desde la primera edición en 2012.
El conocimiento financiero es un imperativo para los gerentes de operaciones y cadena de suministro en el mundo actual. Hablar el idioma financiero no solo les brinda un asiento en la mesa de toma de decisiones, sino que también les permite influir en el rumbo estratégico y operativo de la organización.
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Ye Ling sent a spiritual message to them, ordering them to continue to follow the Tang family s team in Nanshan.I was sitting calmly, but unexpectedly, the evil cultivator Muhan, who was full of blood and evil aura, came over He wiped the cold sweat from his forehead and said with a smile You are Brother Mu Hanmu, right Ahem, my little brother Hua Xiangchun, you are the last Revolutionize Your Keto Journey with Vitazen Labs Keto Gummies: A Game-Changing Supplement for Susta
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Even so, Ye Ling still felt a manic and violent aura coming, which made his blood surge.Otherwise, if we send you to your doorstep, you re just falling into a trap It was too late to run away.
Although the child he trained was young, his mind was not weak Unfortunately, he was facing Ye Ling.Find her a room, lock her up, and keep her under strict supervision.
Not to mention that he is unable to do so, even if he has this ability, it is just a dream Unless the child s soul is given to the leader of Moyun Village, and the village leader s cultivation and ambition are used to oppose the Wuzhou government, then the child s soul will be of great use.It was too Alli Weight Loss: The Ultimate Solution for Losing Weight Fast
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Is it because I m being too preoccupied Yu Ziya said I haven t turned into a monster in the past six months, so it shouldn t change, right Su Ye said Anyway, this is what I know about Tetra Bliss CBD Gummies Amazon - Reviews, Benefits, and More
the situation.
However, the Alchemy Cauldron would have to wait until tomorrow to be completed.You kid Yu Ziya rolled his eyes Can you not be so surprised Isn t this just to see you doing business I m not disturbing you Su Ye said Have you been to my house Yes.
The cannibal ghost fell from the sky and walked towards Su Ye with his hands behind his back.You can mix and match each other with no limit. Su Ye turned out to be more popular than expected, and many people They gathered around Su Ye and asked
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like Su Ye is a little confused right now. Su Ye could only recognize about 30 of the elixirs in the store, and of these 30 , more than 70 had only seen illustrated books and had never seen the actual products.This time, without saying a word, he directly acted with all his strength, wanting to decide life and death.
After a long time, the market will be rotten. Who would dare to buy things on Shuanghua Island Just rely on internal digestion by pirates They are all doing business without capital, internal digestion is a joke So after thinking about it, Akagi or Shuanghua Island would be fine.This time, it s not the usual yellow talisman paper, but
two purple and gold talisman papers The young master of Rakshasa was really strong that night.
At the moment, it seemed that there was a high probability that it would also be azure and chrysolite.In the competition, they will inevitably compete with each other, and winning or losing will also enhance or reduce the status of their own academy in the hearts of the people of Yanjing City.
But before it could fly into the air, there was another loud noise on the ground below, and a big hole exploded.Soon, the underworld beast came to Su Ye, raised its huge fist, and struck down CBD Gummies for Anxiety Review: A Comprehensive Guide to Relief
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It s like a plague. After being killed by monsters, the bodies of those people will mutate and turn into new monsters.Lu Ting took a few steps back, and a trace of blood spilled from the corner of his mouth.
The end of the alley is deep, secluded, peaceful and quiet.Even if you don t think about these masters, even those ordinary bandits, all of them are in Qinggang City.
As for Lin Huaizheng, isn t he in the ninth level of the Foundation Establishment Stage , if this thing happens, my future will be ruined.Su Ye said This You are really angry. Liang Long nodded, and then cursed When I go back to Montenegro, I will cancel all my vacations.
That was an unimaginable amount of wealth, so they imprisoned them day and night.Diplodocus stood proudly, like a towering wall, blocking those monsters.
The two solstices return to the nine palaces. If you can understand the principles of yin and yang, the world will be in the palm of your hand Su Ye muttered something, and then threw the purple gold talisman forward The fight turns the world around In an instant, before the guards in front of the city gate understood what was going on, the sky and the earth turned upside down, and the guards Better Sex Gummies Female: Enhancing Intimacy and Pleasure (opeua)
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Even if it is something I don t have, I can help you get it, as long as you can cure my nephew s disease Wang Mingyang said as he spoke , while raising three fingers and taking out a talisman.The Mingya man said knowingly, Let s talk, I ll buy you some food.
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she saw an ice spirit bow hanging on Xie Xiu Muhan s shoulder that looked like an ice moon, which she had to believe.The devil is still trying to keep up his face, consuming the essence of his soul to keep his phantom alive.
It s gone Ye Ling nodded, seeing that the female cultivator who looked neither human nor ghost was so excited, he didn t dare to take out Gu Hongzi s body, otherwise, he would have to rebel against heaven.Brother Ye, take care My little words can t help you get out of this misfortune.
In this case, please go back. It s better not to disturb the master s alchemy.He turned pale with fright and hurriedly approached her.
The monks from the Aolai Kingdom warned them to let them know that our Golden Crow Tribe and Feihua Sect have joined forces and are not to be trifled with These high bun female disciples of Feihua Sect had no choice but to obey the order.There have been disputes three hundred years ago. As long as they do not infringe on my As for the territory, this Demon Lord just keeps it open The Benefits of Sugar Free Calcium Gummies for Adults: A Comprehensive Guide (uOvaJ)
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A strange woman, we are all impressed. It took a long time for Tang Die to come back to her senses.Qingwan came to Ye Ling and presented the Yunyin Stone Report to the master This is the Yunyin Stone that Sister Yuming finally bought after searching for several months in Duchengfang Market Ye Ling saw that the lines on the Yunyin Stone were like flowing clouds, changing at any time.
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M
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Quickly order the Clear Water Qilin to change direction and make a circle.Everyone watching had their eyes straightened and their mouths opened.
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Dragon snorted coldly and ordered The three spiritual mountains near Zixiao Peak should be cleaned Go and ring the ancient bell in front of the Immortal Sect Hall to summon all the Immortal Sects above the middle stage of foundation building.There is no such evil Jindan strongman sitting in charge, and everyone will try to avoid casualties in the battle.
He only opened the spiritual stage after several decades.In this case, how could it go bankrupt At this time, Su Ye saw the clerk from the store next door coming out to move things.
Now that Zhang Quan has escaped, the work of keeping watch in the cell has become easier again, and everyone is naturally happy.Moreover, it must be a local official and placed in Yanjing.
The air waves layer by layer are like ripples, constantly swaying towards the surroundings.I ll get off duty first. Su Ye yawned You guys are responsible for changing shifts.
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What is this called This is called Run Su Ye was in a good mood and brought a bottle of wine over.The accounts have only been settled in two parts now.
The battle began again
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can t contact Yunyicheng The summons is normal.The next moment, the red light turned into a beam of light and flew forward.
Unfortunately, there is only one. But in the next moment, a sudden change occurred
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spiritual energy that had completed its operation did not flow towards the dantian, but rushed directly towards the spiritual vortex in Su Ye s body.
In addition, His Majesty will also give it to you, but you also need to have a masterpiece that will shock the whole world.Neither Luo Qingqing nor Chen Xian can count on them.
Lightning flashed and thundered in the dark sky, and the bolts of lightning were like dragons soaring into the clouds, which looked ferocious and terrifying.
Fuente: Vanguard.
