Por Javier Abdala, Account Development Manager SAS México.
En la industria mundial del petróleo y el gas, existe un refrán clásico que aún se puede escuchar: “todas las perspectivas se ven muy bien…hasta que empiezas a perforar”.
Más allá de su ironía, la frase es un recordatorio de la incertidumbre que rodea al sector. Por ejemplo, según un estudio del Foro Económico Mundial (WEF, por sus siglas en inglés), la perforación de un solo pozo marítimo (offshore) implica una inversión de entre $200 y $400 millones de dólares, un gasto que quizá no sea retribuido ya que apenas el 25% de estos fosos se materializa en un proyecto rentable.
La dificultad para ofrecer certezas tiene su origen en la complejidad del sector. En las actividades esenciales de la industria (exploración, extracción, refinación y distribución), hay múltiples factores y riesgos que influyen en el desempeño general del negocio; y dichos elementos provienen de ámbitos muy diferentes -geología, medioambiente, regulaciones, nive les de consumo energético (por temporada y por país), logística, entornos geopolíticos y un largo etcétera.
En un contexto así, en donde un fenómeno atmosférico o una crisis gubernamental tienen el mismo poder para alterar la actividad del sector, la estabilidad parece una meta imposible. Sin embargo, gracias a las innovaciones en analítica avanzada, el sector del petróleo y gas ya está superando el reto de la incertidumbre.
Al utilizar analítica especializada en el nicho energético, las empresas -en todas las áreas y funciones críticas de negocio- aprovechan sus datos para monitorear las operaciones, detectar tendencias y prever escenarios, lo que les brinda una mejor capacidad de reacción ante las circunstancias del mercado.
Con Advanced Analytics, las organizaciones de la industria pueden realizar acciones como:
Interpretar diversos indicadores (información geológica, química, historial de perforaciones previas en la zona, etc.) para estimar el potencial de un pozo (de cualquier categoría, como aguas profundas, petróleo pesado, gas y petróleo de esquisto -Shale Oil, Shale Gas-, arenas de alquitrán); esto ayuda a calcular el riesgo y el monto de inversión, así como el lapso en el que se recuperaría el gasto.
Tener una visión completa y oportuna de todas las operaciones, y que abarque distintas disciplinas, departamentos y hasta subcontratistas. Con esta perspectiva única, las compañías vigilan el avance de las metas de producción, garantizan la seguridad de las actividades, dan mantenimiento proactivo a su costosa infraestructura (ya que monitorean el rendimiento de la totalidad de los equipos), y verifican el cumplimiento de diversas regulaciones, entre otros beneficios.
Bajo un modelo predictivo What if… (¿qué pasaría si…?), capacidad para realizar simulaciones que permitan prever el efecto en el negocio de múltiples situaciones; por ejemplo: una caída o aumento en la demanda de productos refinados y sus consecuencias en las cadenas de distribución (regionales e internacionales).
Definir estrategias verdaderamente integrales, ya que con Advanced Analytics es posible crear planes que consideran todos los procesos relevantes de la industria: exploración, perforación, refinación, gestión de reservas, distribución y comercialización.
Para las organizaciones de este ramo energético, dichas capacidades -que apenas son una muestra del potencial de la tecnología- significan el acceso a nuevas opciones de eficiencia, control y rentabilidad. Mejor aún: los beneficios pueden trascender las fronteras del sector.
De acuerdo con la investigación del WEF, para 2025, la industria del petróleo y el gas, gracias a la eficacia operativa que aportan las innovaciones analíticas, podría contribuir con otros indicadores muy valiosos:
Una reducción estimada de 54,000 barriles de crudo en los derrames causados por operaciones de exploración y extracción.
La liberación de 800 millones de galones de agua, líquido que la industria dejaría de utilizar y que podrá asignarse a objetivos de mayor impacto social.
Una caída del 3% en los accidentes y lesiones graves que se presentan en el sector.
350 millones de toneladas: disminución estimada en emisiones de carbono.
Al aprovechar las innovaciones analíticas, las empresas de este nicho energético descubrirán que la inestabilidad y la incertidumbre no son condenas inevitables, sino condiciones que se pueden superar. No importa lo que afirmen los mitos de la industria.
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Por Javier Abdala, Account Development Manager SAS México.