«La ‘esperanza’ que observamos en la encuesta del otoño pasado se ha convertido en entusiasmo y es congruente con otros indicadores de mejora de la confianza», expresó Gus Faucher, economista jefe de PNC Financial Services Group, al dar a conocer la encuesta más reciente de la Institución. «Sin embargo, falta por ver si este aumento del optimismo se traducirá en una mejora de la actividad económica real».
El optimismo entre los empresarios sobre la economía estadounidense y las perspectivas para sus propias empresas ha alcanzado niveles inéditos en los 15 años de historia de las Perspectivas Económicas de PNC, una encuesta telefónica semestral entre pequeños y medianos empresarios.
El 88% de los encuestados sienten optimismo sobre las perspectivas a corto plazo de la economía nacional, un aumento en comparación con el 71% del otoño y el 56% de la primavera pasada. El 89% es optimista sobre la economía local, un incremento en comparación con el 77% del otoño de 2016, de acuerdo con la encuesta.
Entre los encuestados, las expectativas sobre el desempeño de sus propias empresas también han mejorado significativamente. El 94% se siente optimista sobre las perspectivas de sus propias empresas para los próximos seis meses, en comparación con 85% en el otoño y en la primavera pasada.
Asimismo, 62% de los empresarios encuestados prevé aumentos en las ventas en los próximos seis meses, el nivel más alto desde la primavera de 2007; el 57% prevé un aumento en las utilidades, el nivel más alto desde la primavera de 2005, y el 28% espera un aumento de las contrataciones a tiempo completo, la mayor proporción desde la primavera de 2012.
«Aunque los fundamentos económicos no han cambiado notablemente desde el otoño, es alentador que los empresarios estén previendo mayores ventas y utilidades», declaró Faucher. «Estos son indicadores clave que buscamos a la hora de predecir un crecimiento económico más general».
«Los empresarios están esperanzados por la postura pro empresarial que están viendo en Washington, y están deseosos de ver qué cambios de política y regulatorios pueden venir en el futuro. Pero al parecer están adoptando una actitud cautelosa, pues este tipo de cambios requiere de tiempo para que genere impacto a largo plazo».
La encuesta también examinó las ideas de los empresarios sobre el nuevo Congreso y Gobierno en Washington, y sus opiniones son algo variadas. En total, 4 de cada 10 (42%) afirman que esperan que las políticas del nuevo Gobierno y el Congreso, en general, tengan un impacto positivo sobre su empresa este año. Un tercio (32%) sostiene que es demasiado prematuro para predecirlo, mientras que el 17% dice que no tendrán ningún impacto. Solamente el 9% prevé un efecto negativo.
De hecho, solamente 44% de los empresarios encuestados afirma que preverían un aumento en las utilidades si se relajan o eliminan las regulaciones. En lo referente a las contrataciones, un tercio (32%) dice que las reducciones en las regulaciones tendrían un impacto positivo.
* Reforma de leyes a impuestos corporativos encabeza la agenda de los empresarios
Cuando se les pregunta en específico sobre las posibles reformas políticas, los encuestados mencionaron la reforma a las leyes de impuestos corporativos como el cambio individual más anticipado, visto favorablemente por casi 7 de cada 10 líderes empresariales.
Pero los empresarios están divididos de manera más pareja en lo tocante al impacto de las posibles restricciones comerciales o aranceles: 33% los apoya, 32% se opone a ellos y 31% no está seguro.
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