El anuncio reciente del presidente Donald Trump sobre los aranceles a las importaciones de acero, aluminio y una variedad de productos de consumo de China desató un frenesí de preocupación por el riesgo de una guerra comercial global. Sin embargo, Vanguard espera que el impacto económico directo por los nuevos aranceles sea mínimo. Creemos que la importancia real que tienen radica en las implicaciones más amplias y a plazo más largo para la política de comercio internacional.
Los aranceles en contexto
La administración de Trump anunció primero que iba a imponer aranceles de 25% a las importaciones de acero y 10% a las de aluminio. Estos productos en conjunto representan menos de 2% de las importaciones totales de Estados Unidos. Ese estimado aún es alto debido a que Canadá, México y otros aliados, que incluyen la Unión Europea, quedaron exentos temporalmente.
La administración anunció el 22 de marzo un paquete de aranceles y sanciones comerciales sobre los bienes importados de China. Al igual que los aranceles en el acero y el aluminio, estos impuestos probablemente afectarían solo a una pequeña porción del comercio bilateral entre las dos economías más grandes del mundo.
Para entender mejor cómo se vería una escalada de estas disputas, es útil considerar el intercambio comercial en un contexto histórico y global.
Los aranceles de Estados Unidos han estado disminuyendo desde la década de 1930 y se han mantenido por debajo de 5% durante más de cuatro décadas, tal como se muestra a continuación. De acuerdo con el último informe sobre aranceles de la Organización Mundial de Comercio, el promedio actual de aranceles en Estados Unidos es 3.5%, el segundo más bajo en el G20.
Nota: Los datos mostrados son anuales del año 1900 al año 2015.
Fuente: Comisión de Comercio Internacional de Estados Unidos
Aunque Estados Unidos tienen medidas comerciales establecidas que no son aranceles como las protecciones antidumping y por seguridad nacional, continúa siendo uno de los países menos proteccionistas del mundo junto con los miembros de la Unión Europea.
Algunos observadores del mercado hacen una extrapolación del cambio en la política de los aranceles para indicar el inicio de una guerra comercial, similar al ciclo vicioso que desencadenó la infame Ley de Aranceles de Smoot-Hawley de 1930, que redujo dramáticamente el flujo comercial y el crecimiento económico en los primeros años de la Gran Depresión. Dada la historia de reducir las barreras comerciales y conociendo los beneficios de la integración económica, Vanguard cree que es poco probable que la administración de los Estados Unidos modifique dramáticamente la política comercial debido al riesgo de alterar el crecimiento económico.
Disminuyen rápidamente los beneficios de un ligero aumento en los aranceles
Aunque damos una probabilidad baja a una guerra comercial, el análisis de Vanguard en el documento de investigación de los Asuntos macroeconómicos mundiales en 2017 («Situación comercial: es complicado») calculaba el impacto de diversas escaladas en las tensiones comerciales. Un ligero aumento en los aranceles tiene un beneficio marginal a corto plazo en la economía que los impone si no hay represalias. Sin embargo, estos beneficios se reducen rápidamente y se pueden compensar con los aranceles impuestos como represalias y la volatilidad del mercado.
Estos aumentos en los aranceles se compensarían entre sí y el resultado final podría ser precios más altos para el consumidor y crecimiento más bajo debido a una menor actividad comercial, lo que significaría una situación donde todos pierden.
Aunque es poco probable, un entorno de guerra comercial podría reducir el PIB de Estados Unidos en 1.7 puntos porcentuales y aumentar la inflación en 0.4 de un punto porcentual anualmente. En este caso, el impacto sería suficiente para obligar a la Reserva Federal de Estados Unidos a interrumpir su endurecimiento de las tasas de interés y a elegir entre suprimir el exceso de inflación y dar apoyo a un crecimiento bajo.
Los efectos secundarios de los aranceles podrían poner a Estados Unidos en una posición rezagada
Además de estas estimaciones del impacto directo en la economía estadounidense, una menor cooperación en el intercambio comercial durante los siguientes años podría dañar los flujos de inversión internacionales y poner a los Estados Unidos en una posición rezagada en vez de destacada en futuras alianzas económicas y políticas.
Los inversionistas pueden suponer de manera razonable que la retórica comercial continuará siendo una fuente de volatilidad durante 2018 a medida que la administración de Trump intenta establecer un nuevo rumbo en la política comercial sin desencadenar represalias de los socios comerciales globales de Estados Unidos.
Resulta tentador saltar directamente al diseño de la cadena de suministro verde; sin embargo, el éxito a largo plazo depende primero de sentar las bases adecuadas en cada eslabón que la conforma.
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Only Master Yunlan from Emei seemed to have fought with each other for several rounds.Under the green glow, he looked weird and sacred. I saw him there.
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The Yinsi family of the Wolf Principality has never given up looking for her.Let the strengthened Golden Scales be stationed in the fortress, and Zhao Hao himself went to the Endless Fortress and Jiaoyan Volcano to inspect.
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Uh huh Zhao Hao s vision wavered, and when he recovered, he had appeared at the edge of the grassland where the mage tower was located.At the same time, he saw a change in the opponent s attributes.
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The extraordinary level is a lord, and the ace level is a baron.Don t think that the price is high. Dealing with dragons is a technical job.
So layer by layer, it becomes farther and farther away.Put your hands together, the magic power is nourished and distributed, and divided into three parts.
Because you have not reached this level, you will not have that kind of knowledge.With such a terrifying scale, if its combat power is indeed the same as that of the Demon Ancestor, Human Tribulation Taoist, etc.
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It made three vertical and three leaps with great dexterity, and landed on Jing Ke s forehead, and immediately disappeared.Qin Menglin and Huang Xiyin immediately appeared like phantoms.
If it replaces The location of that rare treasure. Gui Wujiu pondered How far can this thing go Qin Menglin smiled and said Compared to the soul pearl, it is naturally inferior.And this seems to be quite meaningful as the place where Gui Wujiu has been practicing for a long time.
The situation in front of him was something he did not expect.Xi Zhenzi and Mr. Li sat down softly on the ground.
So far, everything was the same but he did not leave the sect afterwards, but stayed in Yueheng to practice.To the south of the seven large formations, the Tianma Clan formed its formation.
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Naturally, it must be on top of my savings in the Yin and Yang Dao but in terms of the last major step of breaking through the Tao realm, my old thing is more appropriate.Then there is only one kind of martial arts method that is worthy of her and must be the purest one the method of self cultivation gradually derived from the first direct descendant of martial arts in the past dynasties with the help of the White Tiger Seal.
Furthermore, in fact, after the first two battles, Mo Tianqing took a high look at the magic weapons and treasures of each of the nine sects.middle. Establishing a Taoist mission, establishing one s own merits, and eliminating the main opponents in the world of Ziwei should be completed at the same time only for the Main Continent, the timing must be perfect.
It was green on the inside and red on the outside. It was pure and pleasant, with dewdrops flowing from time to time.They have the ability to protect themselves when traveling.
But not so here. In the monastic system of this region, those who can reach the highest level may not necessarily have outstanding understanding, intelligence, or ability.
Fuente: Vanguard.
