¿Qué tan probable es una guerra comercial mundial?

Fuente: Vanguard.

El anuncio reciente del presidente Donald Trump sobre los aranceles a las importaciones de acero, aluminio y una variedad de productos de consumo de China desató un frenesí de preocupación por el riesgo de una guerra comercial global. Sin embargo, Vanguard espera que el impacto económico directo por los nuevos aranceles sea mínimo. Creemos que la importancia real que tienen radica en las implicaciones más amplias y a plazo más largo para la política de comercio internacional.

Los aranceles en contexto

La administración de Trump anunció primero que iba a imponer aranceles de 25% a las importaciones de acero y 10% a las de aluminio. Estos productos en conjunto representan menos de 2% de las importaciones totales de Estados Unidos. Ese estimado aún es alto debido a que Canadá, México y otros aliados, que incluyen la Unión Europea, quedaron exentos temporalmente.

La administración anunció el 22 de marzo un paquete de aranceles y sanciones comerciales sobre los bienes importados de China. Al igual que los aranceles en el acero y el aluminio, estos impuestos probablemente afectarían solo a una pequeña porción del comercio bilateral entre las dos economías más grandes del mundo.

Para entender mejor cómo se vería una escalada de estas disputas, es útil considerar el intercambio comercial en un contexto histórico y global.

Los aranceles de Estados Unidos han estado disminuyendo desde la década de 1930 y se han mantenido por debajo de 5% durante más de cuatro décadas, tal como se muestra a continuación. De acuerdo con el último informe sobre aranceles de la Organización Mundial de Comercio, el promedio actual de aranceles en Estados Unidos es 3.5%, el segundo más bajo en el G20.

Nota: Los datos mostrados son anuales del año 1900 al año 2015.
Fuente: Comisión de Comercio Internacional de Estados Unidos

Aunque Estados Unidos tienen medidas comerciales establecidas que no son aranceles como las protecciones antidumping y por seguridad nacional, continúa siendo uno de los países menos proteccionistas del mundo junto con los miembros de la Unión Europea.

Algunos observadores del mercado hacen una extrapolación del cambio en la política de los aranceles para indicar el inicio de una guerra comercial, similar al ciclo vicioso que desencadenó la infame Ley de Aranceles de Smoot-Hawley de 1930, que redujo dramáticamente el flujo comercial y el crecimiento económico en los primeros años de la Gran Depresión. Dada la historia de reducir las barreras comerciales y conociendo los beneficios de la integración económica, Vanguard cree que es poco probable que la administración de los Estados Unidos modifique dramáticamente la política comercial debido al riesgo de alterar el crecimiento económico.

Disminuyen rápidamente los beneficios de un ligero aumento en los aranceles

Aunque damos una probabilidad baja a una guerra comercial, el análisis de Vanguard en el documento de investigación de los Asuntos macroeconómicos mundiales en 2017 («Situación comercial: es complicado») calculaba el impacto de diversas escaladas en las tensiones comerciales. Un ligero aumento en los aranceles tiene un beneficio marginal a corto plazo en la economía que los impone si no hay represalias. Sin embargo, estos beneficios se reducen rápidamente y se pueden compensar con los aranceles impuestos como represalias y la volatilidad del mercado.

Estos aumentos en los aranceles se compensarían entre sí y el resultado final podría ser precios más altos para el consumidor y crecimiento más bajo debido a una menor actividad comercial, lo que significaría una situación donde todos pierden.

Aunque es poco probable, un entorno de guerra comercial podría reducir el PIB de Estados Unidos en 1.7 puntos porcentuales y aumentar la inflación en 0.4 de un punto porcentual anualmente. En este caso, el impacto sería suficiente para obligar a la Reserva Federal de Estados Unidos a interrumpir su endurecimiento de las tasas de interés y a elegir entre suprimir el exceso de inflación y dar apoyo a un crecimiento bajo.

Los efectos secundarios de los aranceles podrían poner a Estados Unidos en una posición rezagada

Además de estas estimaciones del impacto directo en la economía estadounidense, una menor cooperación en el intercambio comercial durante los siguientes años podría dañar los flujos de inversión internacionales y poner a los Estados Unidos en una posición rezagada en vez de destacada en futuras alianzas económicas y políticas.

Los inversionistas pueden suponer de manera razonable que la retórica comercial continuará siendo una fuente de volatilidad durante 2018 a medida que la administración de Trump intenta establecer un nuevo rumbo en la política comercial sin desencadenar represalias de los socios comerciales globales de Estados Unidos.

 

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Only by connecting with the Nine Sons Ghost Baby can he send his own essence and blood into the Ghost Baby s body, but others cannot do it.Xu Yang s heart sank, knowing that the Demon Lord Zizai was right, his thoughts changed, and suddenly he decided to use a dangerous move to complete Tianni Zhenren s plan here.

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Buddhist colored glass pure fire, angry heart fire, and Taoist samadhi real fire are juxtaposed.It s a pity that the century old stalactites have been exhausted last time, otherwise they can quickly recover part of their strength, and now they can only retreat to heal their injuries.

In the early days, not only that, but Xu Yang also discovered that there was a strange fluctuation in the bodies of these eight people.Fortunately, the news of you came from Wanbao Pavilion, so we let us go.

Unprepared, he was hit head on by the shock wave and flew upside down screaming.Half step into the realm of transforming gods, depending on the situation, you can break into the realm of transforming gods at any time.

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Master can t protect me My master is right behind you.Jing and Sword Master sighed, and said There used to be a proud man in the world of cultivating immortals, but he died in the Ye family.

Looking at this familiar scene, Meng Jingzhe trembled in his heart.How could they flow into the world of cultivating immortals How many are there in Fengqi City Meng Jingzhe asked.

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The last ray of afterglow disappeared in the west.Put the wine glass on the table, Xiao Er, pay the bill.Frost kills all the herbs, and the flowers and trees wither.

Song Tingfeng let out a sleepy hmm and opened his tired eyes.No brother bullied me.Chu Caiwei pursed her lips and cried out, Xu Qi an is dead, Xu Qi an is dead, I m so sad.

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Seeing the chicken stewing in the small stove, Song Qing felt better.Guessing crossword puzzles is completely commonplace for scholars.

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After speaking, he found that his hand was firmly held by Xu Qi an.As a last resort, I can only attack you and occupy Yunzhou in advance.

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A paper man floated into the yard with the night wind, and landed lightly on the ground.January 2, I started writing today, because I promised Lingyue that I would write an interesting book for her to read.

3 Yunlu Academy, but because I felt that his treatment was a bit exaggerated.Immediately, Xu Qi an fell into a dangerous situation where men were on the left and right, and he was covered in big men.

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Pei Jihua looked a little embarrassed at Wei Kaida s reaction, I m here to apologize.Both father and son are village doctors in Dujiagou, and they both receive subsidies from the health center.

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Du Heng glanced outside again, and then at the young mother who was still crying in front of him.You have just given birth, and it is normal to still have lochia.

After saying this, he picked up a piece of paper on the table and tore it up.Hearing this, Du Heng nodded thoughtfully. What Wang Shuqiu said about her brother last night came to his mind again.

An Chunhui knew the news and almost exploded. What is this for Lao Song was just elected, but within two days, he lost an adult in front of the leader.He has never seen this kind of thing, let alone ever done it.

Stop talking nonsense and prescribe it quickly. It s not good for others to hear.They dispel filth and turn turbidity, and lead the medicine directly into the lung orifices.

Besides, asking an old man to take a trip seems a bit too arrogant, which is not good.It s okay, but you ll have to pay extra. Du Heng didn t know if his brain was twitching, but he suddenly said something very grumpy.

The old Chinese medicine doctors she found were not good, and I m afraid such a young Chinese medicine doctor was even less good.It is a small two story building that is exquisite and modern.

Li Qingde, wearing a brand new white coat, was smiling broadly.Speaking of the previous treatment of Zhang Jinlian, If Jin Lian was disgusting, it has now risen to the level of disgust.

You two come down with me. I ll make a prescription.If I had been more careful just now, I might actually have confessed.

During today s acupuncture process, several low level mistakes occurred.When they were in school, the four of them flourished.

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I just don t have a house. Gong Daoyang tightened his clothes, This guy s skills are good.Why are you standing there, take off your child quickly.

Wu Buwei stood behind Du Heng and said hello seriously.Come over later. Du Heng began to check the man s condition, and then said, No numbness, no itching.

Got in. As for why he wasn t sent to the hospital, Du Heng didn t ask.Du Heng also felt in his heart I muttered that after more than five or six years of working together, no one knew who was who.

First, everyone thinks that the doctors at the health center are better than the village doctors, and not even a little bit better.After all, if you want to finish your studies and find a better hospital, that is Five years of undergraduate study, plus three years of postgraduate studies, eight years.

Why don t you scream. You are driving too fast, and we will be frightened by the next one.Du is very skilled, and he has treated more than thirty paralyzed patients.

Du Heng was puzzled. Could it be that he had been diagnosed Question, everyone doesn t trust me anymore But that s not right.I https://tannoorgrill.com/knowledge/achieving-restful-nights-with-knockout-sleep-gummies-a-comprehensive-n2d-guide-unrrh-m44a/ can only tell you that if you have a paper and the quality is acceptable, your paper will be reviewed and published as quickly as possible.

You young man, my own man, how can I talk nonsense Pei Jihua followed his aunt upstairs.It is a must. There was not much to say at the welcome meeting, but Du Heng did not see https://nessey.newmedialab.cuny.edu/files/news/get-l46dq6l-your-drive-back-with-puredrive-boost-male-enhancement-gummies-kec8_7l9dx7cva Zhang Jinlian among the dozen or so people present.

You just paid less to see Dr. Du, so it s no longer possible.Just as he thought, no one came to see a doctor at all.

Until then, it will still be him, Du Heng, who is unlucky.But I prescribed medicine. As long as you take the medicine on time and don t be irritated, you can basically return to normal in two weeks.

There was no way , we can only follow the old man s wishes.After graduation, I heard that he seemed to have some problems, but I didn t go into details and didn t know the specific results.

The person who answered the phone at the Health Bureau was also confused.Okay, the branch secretary is also very supportive.