El anuncio reciente del presidente Donald Trump sobre los aranceles a las importaciones de acero, aluminio y una variedad de productos de consumo de China desató un frenesí de preocupación por el riesgo de una guerra comercial global. Sin embargo, Vanguard espera que el impacto económico directo por los nuevos aranceles sea mínimo. Creemos que la importancia real que tienen radica en las implicaciones más amplias y a plazo más largo para la política de comercio internacional.
Los aranceles en contexto
La administración de Trump anunció primero que iba a imponer aranceles de 25% a las importaciones de acero y 10% a las de aluminio. Estos productos en conjunto representan menos de 2% de las importaciones totales de Estados Unidos. Ese estimado aún es alto debido a que Canadá, México y otros aliados, que incluyen la Unión Europea, quedaron exentos temporalmente.
La administración anunció el 22 de marzo un paquete de aranceles y sanciones comerciales sobre los bienes importados de China. Al igual que los aranceles en el acero y el aluminio, estos impuestos probablemente afectarían solo a una pequeña porción del comercio bilateral entre las dos economías más grandes del mundo.
Para entender mejor cómo se vería una escalada de estas disputas, es útil considerar el intercambio comercial en un contexto histórico y global.
Los aranceles de Estados Unidos han estado disminuyendo desde la década de 1930 y se han mantenido por debajo de 5% durante más de cuatro décadas, tal como se muestra a continuación. De acuerdo con el último informe sobre aranceles de la Organización Mundial de Comercio, el promedio actual de aranceles en Estados Unidos es 3.5%, el segundo más bajo en el G20.
Nota: Los datos mostrados son anuales del año 1900 al año 2015.
Fuente: Comisión de Comercio Internacional de Estados Unidos
Aunque Estados Unidos tienen medidas comerciales establecidas que no son aranceles como las protecciones antidumping y por seguridad nacional, continúa siendo uno de los países menos proteccionistas del mundo junto con los miembros de la Unión Europea.
Algunos observadores del mercado hacen una extrapolación del cambio en la política de los aranceles para indicar el inicio de una guerra comercial, similar al ciclo vicioso que desencadenó la infame Ley de Aranceles de Smoot-Hawley de 1930, que redujo dramáticamente el flujo comercial y el crecimiento económico en los primeros años de la Gran Depresión. Dada la historia de reducir las barreras comerciales y conociendo los beneficios de la integración económica, Vanguard cree que es poco probable que la administración de los Estados Unidos modifique dramáticamente la política comercial debido al riesgo de alterar el crecimiento económico.
Disminuyen rápidamente los beneficios de un ligero aumento en los aranceles
Aunque damos una probabilidad baja a una guerra comercial, el análisis de Vanguard en el documento de investigación de los Asuntos macroeconómicos mundiales en 2017 («Situación comercial: es complicado») calculaba el impacto de diversas escaladas en las tensiones comerciales. Un ligero aumento en los aranceles tiene un beneficio marginal a corto plazo en la economía que los impone si no hay represalias. Sin embargo, estos beneficios se reducen rápidamente y se pueden compensar con los aranceles impuestos como represalias y la volatilidad del mercado.
Estos aumentos en los aranceles se compensarían entre sí y el resultado final podría ser precios más altos para el consumidor y crecimiento más bajo debido a una menor actividad comercial, lo que significaría una situación donde todos pierden.
Aunque es poco probable, un entorno de guerra comercial podría reducir el PIB de Estados Unidos en 1.7 puntos porcentuales y aumentar la inflación en 0.4 de un punto porcentual anualmente. En este caso, el impacto sería suficiente para obligar a la Reserva Federal de Estados Unidos a interrumpir su endurecimiento de las tasas de interés y a elegir entre suprimir el exceso de inflación y dar apoyo a un crecimiento bajo.
Los efectos secundarios de los aranceles podrían poner a Estados Unidos en una posición rezagada
Además de estas estimaciones del impacto directo en la economía estadounidense, una menor cooperación en el intercambio comercial durante los siguientes años podría dañar los flujos de inversión internacionales y poner a los Estados Unidos en una posición rezagada en vez de destacada en futuras alianzas económicas y políticas.
Los inversionistas pueden suponer de manera razonable que la retórica comercial continuará siendo una fuente de volatilidad durante 2018 a medida que la administración de Trump intenta establecer un nuevo rumbo en la política comercial sin desencadenar represalias de los socios comerciales globales de Estados Unidos.
Aunque todavía hay una probabilidad baja de guerras comerciales, vale la pena observar de cerca las decisiones en cuanto a la política, y las respuestas internacionales que generen, para estar atentos a las señales de escalada.
Las PyME y los pequeños contribuyentes son, en este punto, los más afectados, pues al no prevenir con tiempo estos gastos tendrán que desembolsar una fuerte cantidad, de un día para otro, para tener dichas actualizaciones.
Hei Di, https://nessey.newmedialab.cuny.edu/files/guides/meagan-goods-55pound-weight-loss-success-the-actress-who-turned-personal-struggles-into-a-triumph-4hkzmngl0-of-selflove-and-confidence_20bhvgm16 who had been expressionless all this time, immediately changed his expression, stood up and said, It s them, is it true that Fellow Daoist Xu is with them https://tannoorgrill.com/case-studies/cbd-p8wz-gummies-and-antibiotics-or6z/ Hei Di took two steps back, showing a look of vigilance.Ouyang Feng was plotted against, Ma Nao Patriarch and others felt the pressure relieved, and immediately launched a counterattack.
And the Divine Stone of Light is the supreme treasure of the Falling Star Sea, only the Falling Star Sea can produce it, there is no semicolon, how did Huan Ling er get it Isn t she a Lanzhou monk Thinking about this in his heart, Xu Yang asked aloud I have also heard about the Light God Stone, but I have never seen it.
Yin Ji turned pale with astonishment, and quickly bowed and said Senior Xu calm down, the junior already knows a thing or two what the senior https://tannoorgrill.com/support/en-exercise-in-6dk0-bed-to-lose-weight-7-effective-methods-for-overweight-adults-l2q0/ is asking for, and when I enter the Ghost and God Sect, I will ask my master, Fairy Wuxin, in fact, my family only knows the way to leave.As far as Yu Wei was concerned, even the other monster spiders were burnt up, and the huge cave was full of heat, only Xu Yang and the woman were left.
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Buddhist colored glass pure fire, angry heart fire, and Taoist samadhi real fire are juxtaposed.It s a pity that the century old stalactites have been exhausted last time, otherwise they can quickly recover part of their strength, and now they can only retreat to heal their injuries.
In the early days, not only that, but Xu Yang also discovered that there was a strange fluctuation in the bodies of these eight people.Fortunately, the news of you came from Wanbao Pavilion, so we let us go.
Unprepared, he was hit head on by the shock wave and flew upside down screaming.Half step into the realm of transforming gods, depending on the situation, you can break into the realm of transforming gods at any time.
At this time, a sudden change occurred, and a powerful force burst out from behind the space crack.It is a top grade spiritual treasure with both offensive and defensive capabilities.
Xuandi Daoist continued There is only one place where the forbidden entrance is hidden.The two sides were at a https://nessey.newmedialab.cuny.edu/files/guides/vigor-vita-cbd-hj91za-gummies-reviews-and-complaints-a-comprehensive-guide-to-cbd-supplements-skyjn-tr0q_neogyp3zd stalemate.Xu Yang suddenly waved his sleeves, and the golden sword swarm flew out and landed on the ground Above the array.
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Xu Yang frowned slightly, and quickly adapted https://tannoorgrill.com/faq/can-you-fly-6waei0-with-cbd-gummies-tsa-a-comprehensive-guide-boniu-t80l/ to the new physical body, bringing all the power under his control.The Patriarch Bone Bone had a late stage Nascent Soul cultivation, and was a little higher than her.
The https://tannoorgrill.com/tips/comprehensive-guide-to-cbd-4yfd83tzd-7-hemp-oil-reviews-benefits-products-and-expert-insights-ukdvx-n1tl/ star diamond is indeed https://nessey.newmedialab.cuny.edu/files/tips/vd5-just-cbd-sugar-free-gummies-g7wo_obab1074g a rare treasure, the power of the stars inside it is endless, under the impact of the massive power of the stars, Xu Yang s witch and demon soul rises rapidly, enters his sea of consciousness in the blink of an eye, and then gradually transforms into the primordial spirit.
When he boarded the altar, Xu Yang couldn t help taking a breath.At the same time, the Lingquan spiritual liquid was quickly absorbed and refined to replenish the Nascent Soul s strength.
Xu Yang https://tannoorgrill.com/insights/unveiling-the-benefits-of-cbd-gummies-for-sex-ctos7h8-a-comprehensive-guide-xvkaz-h0as/ s pressure suddenly eased and his whole body felt cool.Speaking of this, Yin Hong had an excited look on his face.
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Xu Nian shook his head It doesn t have to be so troublesome, it s enough to subdue them and migrate on a large scale.You have lived for more than 10,000 years, so you only focus on studying crooked ways, but you haven t made any progress in Taoism Meng Jingzhe asked very puzzled.
Master can t protect me My master is right behind you.Jing and Sword Master sighed, and said There used to be a proud man in the world of cultivating immortals, but he died in the Ye family.
Looking at this familiar scene, Meng Jingzhe trembled in his heart.How could they flow into the world of cultivating immortals How many are there in Fengqi City Meng Jingzhe asked.
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The resentful beast rising from the mist blocked their way.God Lord, since Miss Axi has already made a decision, you can t continue to stop her.
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In a panic, he looked left and right, but he had no choice but to get back under the bed.And the master of the holy mountain never seemed to care about these disciples.
Of course, this requires a huge price to pay, just like Qian Zhong Daru during the Great Weekend, sacrificing himself, smashing the last chance of the Great Weekend.Kacha.A good defensive magic weapon was shattered into fine powder.
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Paper figurines have low abilities, so they are stronger than ants, and can hide the perception of warriors.Maybe she did it on purpose, in order not to Marry.
The last ray of afterglow disappeared in the west.Put the wine glass on the table, Xiao Er, pay the bill.Frost kills all the herbs, and the flowers and trees wither.
Song Tingfeng let out a sleepy hmm and opened his tired eyes.No brother bullied me.Chu Caiwei pursed her lips and cried out, Xu Qi an is dead, Xu Qi an is dead, I m so sad.
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Seeing the chicken stewing in the small stove, Song Qing felt better.Guessing crossword puzzles is completely commonplace for scholars.
His Majesty was still angry, so he sent the three families of the Xu family together and exiled them to the frontier.etc The supervisor knew about the weirdness in me, https://nessey.newmedialab.cuny.edu/files/insights/en-simply-lean-keto-and-ketologic-di9c-afegrd3ei_3mzadxscx so he gave me a black gold long knife, and also gave me the unique knowledge of Sword of Heaven and Earth in a secret way.
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After speaking, he found that his hand was firmly held by Xu Qi an.As a last resort, I can only attack you and occupy Yunzhou in advance.
He didn t want to stay in the Green Pool Court anymore, and he couldn t go back in the middle of the night, so he could only rest in Yingmei Xiaoge.The three of you are watching upstairs to see how their mood changes, and then reply to me.
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Do you believe it or not After taking a few breaths, she emphasized in disbelief, This is the Fuya.I don t know about that.Aya shook her https://nessey.newmedialab.cuny.edu/files/research/the-benefits-and-effectiveness-of-irwin-naturals-cbd-xrq86-gummies-reviews-ewjsg-qljt_x5gh14lim head, looked at Xu Qi an in a bitch, and said with a smile Although there are only half a poem, the level is not inferior to Mr.
A paper man floated into the yard with the night wind, and landed lightly on the ground.January 2, I started writing today, because I promised Lingyue that I would write an interesting book for her to read.
3 Yunlu Academy, but because I felt that his treatment was a bit exaggerated.Immediately, Xu Qi an fell into a dangerous situation where men were on the left and right, and he was covered in big men.
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Pei Jihua looked a little embarrassed at Wei Kaida s reaction, I m here to apologize.Both father and son are village doctors in Dujiagou, and they both receive subsidies from the health center.
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Du Heng glanced outside again, and then at the young mother who was still crying in front of him.You have just given birth, and it is normal to still have lochia.
After saying this, he picked up a piece of paper on the table and tore it up.Hearing this, Du Heng nodded thoughtfully. What Wang Shuqiu said about her brother last night came to his mind again.
An Chunhui knew the news and almost exploded. What is this for Lao Song was just elected, but within two days, he lost an adult in front of the leader.He has never seen this kind of thing, let alone ever done it.
Stop talking nonsense and prescribe it quickly. It s not good for others to hear.They dispel filth and turn turbidity, and lead the medicine directly into the lung orifices.
Besides, asking an old man to take a trip seems a bit too arrogant, which is not good.It s okay, but you ll have to pay extra. Du Heng didn t know if his brain was twitching, but he suddenly said something very grumpy.
The old Chinese medicine doctors she found were not good, and I m afraid such a young Chinese medicine doctor was even less good.It is a small two story building that is exquisite and modern.
Li Qingde, wearing a brand new white coat, was smiling broadly.Speaking of the previous treatment of Zhang Jinlian, If Jin Lian was disgusting, it has now risen to the level of disgust.
You two come down with me. I ll make a prescription.If I had been more careful just now, I might actually have confessed.
During today s acupuncture process, several low level mistakes occurred.When they were in school, the four of them flourished.
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I just don t have a house. Gong Daoyang tightened his clothes, This guy s skills are good.Why are you standing there, take off your child quickly.
Wu Buwei stood behind Du Heng and said hello seriously.Come over later. Du Heng began to check the man s condition, and then said, No numbness, no itching.
Got in. As for why he wasn t sent to the hospital, Du Heng didn t ask.Du Heng also felt in his heart I muttered that after more than five or six years of working together, no one knew who was who.
First, everyone thinks that the doctors at the health center are better than the village doctors, and not even a little bit better.After all, if you want to finish your studies and find a better hospital, that is Five years of undergraduate study, plus three years of postgraduate studies, eight years.
Why don t you scream. You are driving too fast, and we will be frightened by the next one.Du is very skilled, and he has treated more than thirty paralyzed patients.
Du Heng was puzzled. Could it be that he had been diagnosed Question, everyone doesn t trust me anymore But that s not right.I https://tannoorgrill.com/knowledge/achieving-restful-nights-with-knockout-sleep-gummies-a-comprehensive-n2d-guide-unrrh-m44a/ can only tell you that if you have a paper and the quality is acceptable, your paper will be reviewed and published as quickly as possible.
You young man, my own man, how can I talk nonsense Pei Jihua followed his aunt upstairs.It is a must. There was not much to say at the welcome meeting, but Du Heng did not see https://nessey.newmedialab.cuny.edu/files/news/get-l46dq6l-your-drive-back-with-puredrive-boost-male-enhancement-gummies-kec8_7l9dx7cva Zhang Jinlian among the dozen or so people present.
You just paid less to see Dr. Du, so it s no longer possible.Just as he thought, no one came to see a doctor at all.
Until then, it will still be him, Du Heng, who is unlucky.But I prescribed medicine. As long as you take the medicine on time and don t be irritated, you can basically return to normal in two weeks.
There was no way , we can only follow the old man s wishes.After graduation, I heard that he seemed to have some problems, but I didn t go into details and didn t know the specific results.
The person who answered the phone at the Health Bureau was also confused.Okay, the branch secretary is also very supportive.
Fuente: Vanguard.
