El anuncio reciente del presidente Donald Trump sobre los aranceles a las importaciones de acero, aluminio y una variedad de productos de consumo de China desató un frenesí de preocupación por el riesgo de una guerra comercial global. Sin embargo, Vanguard espera que el impacto económico directo por los nuevos aranceles sea mínimo. Creemos que la importancia real que tienen radica en las implicaciones más amplias y a plazo más largo para la política de comercio internacional.
Los aranceles en contexto
La administración de Trump anunció primero que iba a imponer aranceles de 25% a las importaciones de acero y 10% a las de aluminio. Estos productos en conjunto representan menos de 2% de las importaciones totales de Estados Unidos. Ese estimado aún es alto debido a que Canadá, México y otros aliados, que incluyen la Unión Europea, quedaron exentos temporalmente.
La administración anunció el 22 de marzo un paquete de aranceles y sanciones comerciales sobre los bienes importados de China. Al igual que los aranceles en el acero y el aluminio, estos impuestos probablemente afectarían solo a una pequeña porción del comercio bilateral entre las dos economías más grandes del mundo.
Para entender mejor cómo se vería una escalada de estas disputas, es útil considerar el intercambio comercial en un contexto histórico y global.
Los aranceles de Estados Unidos han estado disminuyendo desde la década de 1930 y se han mantenido por debajo de 5% durante más de cuatro décadas, tal como se muestra a continuación. De acuerdo con el último informe sobre aranceles de la Organización Mundial de Comercio, el promedio actual de aranceles en Estados Unidos es 3.5%, el segundo más bajo en el G20.
Nota: Los datos mostrados son anuales del año 1900 al año 2015.
Fuente: Comisión de Comercio Internacional de Estados Unidos
Aunque Estados Unidos tienen medidas comerciales establecidas que no son aranceles como las protecciones antidumping y por seguridad nacional, continúa siendo uno de los países menos proteccionistas del mundo junto con los miembros de la Unión Europea.
Algunos observadores del mercado hacen una extrapolación del cambio en la política de los aranceles para indicar el inicio de una guerra comercial, similar al ciclo vicioso que desencadenó la infame Ley de Aranceles de Smoot-Hawley de 1930, que redujo dramáticamente el flujo comercial y el crecimiento económico en los primeros años de la Gran Depresión. Dada la historia de reducir las barreras comerciales y conociendo los beneficios de la integración económica, Vanguard cree que es poco probable que la administración de los Estados Unidos modifique dramáticamente la política comercial debido al riesgo de alterar el crecimiento económico.
Disminuyen rápidamente los beneficios de un ligero aumento en los aranceles
Aunque damos una probabilidad baja a una guerra comercial, el análisis de Vanguard en el documento de investigación de los Asuntos macroeconómicos mundiales en 2017 («Situación comercial: es complicado») calculaba el impacto de diversas escaladas en las tensiones comerciales. Un ligero aumento en los aranceles tiene un beneficio marginal a corto plazo en la economía que los impone si no hay represalias. Sin embargo, estos beneficios se reducen rápidamente y se pueden compensar con los aranceles impuestos como represalias y la volatilidad del mercado.
Estos aumentos en los aranceles se compensarían entre sí y el resultado final podría ser precios más altos para el consumidor y crecimiento más bajo debido a una menor actividad comercial, lo que significaría una situación donde todos pierden.
Aunque es poco probable, un entorno de guerra comercial podría reducir el PIB de Estados Unidos en 1.7 puntos porcentuales y aumentar la inflación en 0.4 de un punto porcentual anualmente. En este caso, el impacto sería suficiente para obligar a la Reserva Federal de Estados Unidos a interrumpir su endurecimiento de las tasas de interés y a elegir entre suprimir el exceso de inflación y dar apoyo a un crecimiento bajo.
Los efectos secundarios de los aranceles podrían poner a Estados Unidos en una posición rezagada
Además de estas estimaciones del impacto directo en la economía estadounidense, una menor cooperación en el intercambio comercial durante los siguientes años podría dañar los flujos de inversión internacionales y poner a los Estados Unidos en una posición rezagada en vez de destacada en futuras alianzas económicas y políticas.
Los inversionistas pueden suponer de manera razonable que la retórica comercial continuará siendo una fuente de volatilidad durante 2018 a medida que la administración de Trump intenta establecer un nuevo rumbo en la política comercial sin desencadenar represalias de los socios comerciales globales de Estados Unidos.
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Do you want these two types The black faced boss quickly gave Shao Nan an answer.If they retreat decisively, they can still maintain the strength of the sect.
Shao Nan can still tell which is more important.When Shao Nan heard Xiaocaoer say that the situation was worse than encountering a divine beast, Shao Nan immediately stopped his dive and prepared to go upstream.Refining the magic weapon that causes thunder in other sects.
They should be able to be refined within a year, and the attack power will increase by 30 by then.But, let me teach you how to be a human being Xie Luo activated a magic weapon of the fan, and launched an attack on Shao Nan.
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Seeing Master Abner strolling forward, some members of the Bibo Huanyue tribe felt that Master Abner was making a fuss out of a molehill.Continue to drive, Shao Nan frowned slightly, but Shao Nan remained calm.
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Most of them are our military saints who can single handedly turn the tide. It is not because I, as a military monk, deliberately sing praises to the sages.He went to the mountains to dig soil and cut firewood, and he ran up and down the mountains very quickly.
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Earth Master Chen Ping an, don t you know Women are not allowed to be officials. And it s not just our Dali, it seems to be like this all over the world.Chen Pingan smiled at the tall man, then pointed to the shore, indicating that he would come ashore soon and would not disturb their chat.
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What happened Everyone The base of the Bibo Huanyue Clan has been discovered, and the current Bibo Huanyue Clan has grown stronger and will soon threaten our survival.What s wrong Lan Yin asked nervously.It s okay Shao Nan shook his head.
Seeing the situation clearly, the two sects without Nascent Soul could not possibly be the opponents of Zhenjun Ganyan and the Dao Natural Sect with the strength comparable to Zhenjun Yuanying, Shaonan.Shao Nan secretly thought, here we come.This is where the Xuanlei Yuanhuo Formation is most powerful.
As for An Zhao and his party, Shao Nan can already predict their end.Which one is this None of them have survived three days.
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Generally speaking, the vicious side is slightly stronger.It s a pity that Shao Nan was powerless in the fire control skill competition of the Sacred Fire Glazed Tile School.
He hurriedly greeted the other two Shinichis, and rushed to the sea.To be continued.Chapter 402 I left and went deeper for more than 200 miles, but I still haven t encountered a single monster, and I haven Reviews And Biolife Gummies Cbd Analysis Detailed For Jwja Ed Ratings t even seen a shadow of other teams.
Shao Yingzhuo was in his fifties back then, and he must be almost eighty now, and it s not even certain whether he is still alive or not.Without any hesitation, the bookstore owner slammed into the empty back wall of the bookstore.
And more and more lines appeared under the irradiation of the three color light.According to Zihuang Shinichi s meaning, this effect is caused by the restriction arranged by the Nine Li Sword Master on the one hand, and on the other hand by the own ability of Nine Li Mountain.
Even those who originally had some complaints, seeing Shinichi Xinghuo now, all complaints are wiped away.
Fuente: Vanguard.
