El anuncio reciente del presidente Donald Trump sobre los aranceles a las importaciones de acero, aluminio y una variedad de productos de consumo de China desató un frenesí de preocupación por el riesgo de una guerra comercial global. Sin embargo, Vanguard espera que el impacto económico directo por los nuevos aranceles sea mínimo. Creemos que la importancia real que tienen radica en las implicaciones más amplias y a plazo más largo para la política de comercio internacional.
Los aranceles en contexto
La administración de Trump anunció primero que iba a imponer aranceles de 25% a las importaciones de acero y 10% a las de aluminio. Estos productos en conjunto representan menos de 2% de las importaciones totales de Estados Unidos. Ese estimado aún es alto debido a que Canadá, México y otros aliados, que incluyen la Unión Europea, quedaron exentos temporalmente.
La administración anunció el 22 de marzo un paquete de aranceles y sanciones comerciales sobre los bienes importados de China. Al igual que los aranceles en el acero y el aluminio, estos impuestos probablemente afectarían solo a una pequeña porción del comercio bilateral entre las dos economías más grandes del mundo.
Para entender mejor cómo se vería una escalada de estas disputas, es útil considerar el intercambio comercial en un contexto histórico y global.
Los aranceles de Estados Unidos han estado disminuyendo desde la década de 1930 y se han mantenido por debajo de 5% durante más de cuatro décadas, tal como se muestra a continuación. De acuerdo con el último informe sobre aranceles de la Organización Mundial de Comercio, el promedio actual de aranceles en Estados Unidos es 3.5%, el segundo más bajo en el G20.
Nota: Los datos mostrados son anuales del año 1900 al año 2015.
Fuente: Comisión de Comercio Internacional de Estados Unidos
Aunque Estados Unidos tienen medidas comerciales establecidas que no son aranceles como las protecciones antidumping y por seguridad nacional, continúa siendo uno de los países menos proteccionistas del mundo junto con los miembros de la Unión Europea.
Algunos observadores del mercado hacen una extrapolación del cambio en la política de los aranceles para indicar el inicio de una guerra comercial, similar al ciclo vicioso que desencadenó la infame Ley de Aranceles de Smoot-Hawley de 1930, que redujo dramáticamente el flujo comercial y el crecimiento económico en los primeros años de la Gran Depresión. Dada la historia de reducir las barreras comerciales y conociendo los beneficios de la integración económica, Vanguard cree que es poco probable que la administración de los Estados Unidos modifique dramáticamente la política comercial debido al riesgo de alterar el crecimiento económico.
Disminuyen rápidamente los beneficios de un ligero aumento en los aranceles
Aunque damos una probabilidad baja a una guerra comercial, el análisis de Vanguard en el documento de investigación de los Asuntos macroeconómicos mundiales en 2017 («Situación comercial: es complicado») calculaba el impacto de diversas escaladas en las tensiones comerciales. Un ligero aumento en los aranceles tiene un beneficio marginal a corto plazo en la economía que los impone si no hay represalias. Sin embargo, estos beneficios se reducen rápidamente y se pueden compensar con los aranceles impuestos como represalias y la volatilidad del mercado.
Estos aumentos en los aranceles se compensarían entre sí y el resultado final podría ser precios más altos para el consumidor y crecimiento más bajo debido a una menor actividad comercial, lo que significaría una situación donde todos pierden.
Aunque es poco probable, un entorno de guerra comercial podría reducir el PIB de Estados Unidos en 1.7 puntos porcentuales y aumentar la inflación en 0.4 de un punto porcentual anualmente. En este caso, el impacto sería suficiente para obligar a la Reserva Federal de Estados Unidos a interrumpir su endurecimiento de las tasas de interés y a elegir entre suprimir el exceso de inflación y dar apoyo a un crecimiento bajo.
Los efectos secundarios de los aranceles podrían poner a Estados Unidos en una posición rezagada
Además de estas estimaciones del impacto directo en la economía estadounidense, una menor cooperación en el intercambio comercial durante los siguientes años podría dañar los flujos de inversión internacionales y poner a los Estados Unidos en una posición rezagada en vez de destacada en futuras alianzas económicas y políticas.
Los inversionistas pueden suponer de manera razonable que la retórica comercial continuará siendo una fuente de volatilidad durante 2018 a medida que la administración de Trump intenta establecer un nuevo rumbo en la política comercial sin desencadenar represalias de los socios comerciales globales de Estados Unidos.
Los vehículos autónomos son muestra de una tecnología de rápida maduración. Mientras Tesla y Google crean una visión en la conciencia del consumidor, los vehículos autónomos están dejando huella en el mundo de los negocios.
Para que una atención por WhatsApp Business sea exitosa, la resolución de las necesidades de los clientes debe darse de forma natural: Entender la intención real de los usuarios y lo que requieren, para proporcionar una experiencia de resolución instantánea.
En esta temporada alta, los minoristas deben estar preparados para enfrentar el desafío de los paquetes perdidos con estrategias efectivas. Implementar soluciones como el seguimiento detallado de pedidos, la cadena de custodia fotográfica, y opciones de entrega seguras puede minimizar el impacto financiero y mantener la fidelidad del cliente.
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Even if they only walked two or three hundred miles a day, they would have covered more than a thousand miles in five or six days.He had not seen him for nineteen years. The ancestor of the Liang family had hardly changed at all, except for his cultivation.
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Just getting rid of the War Apprentice doesn t mean you ve won.tumultuous The extremely violent fire dragon breath spread down, turning a large number of remaining troops and heroes into ashes.
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they were ready to kill. This
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The full name of the Abyss is Abyss of Hell. As soon as I heard it, I knew that it was inextricably related to the hell camp of the nine camps.It can be said to be all encompassing. And Zhao Hao discovered a detail.
But now that he heard that the Son of Nature was about to give up, his polarity reversed instantly.It doesn t sound as powerful as attributes such as increased power, reduced consumption, etc.
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A war mercenary group refers to a super large mercenary group that has strong combat effectiveness and whose main business is to help fight wars.
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A supersonic fighter jet is not much worse than a legend in terms of speed.Well, I might as well tell you, native. This means that the Lord of the Dead will leave his own divine domain.
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At the end, I considered adding the hint that light and electricity do have certain wave properties, Understanding the Benefits of 500 mg CBD Gummy for Overall Wellness but the particle characteristics they exhibit cannot be ignored.Of course, relevant publicity must also keep up. Linn has never been reluctant to use some means for the right things.
His heart suddenly tightened, but then his expression became extremely weird.After casually pointing out a few areas that needed improvement, Linn spoke again with a smile.
The so called Unleash the Power of Healthy Breakfast Smoothies for Effective Weight Loss user No. 33 is naturally Anthony. As one of the great wizards who personally developed his career in the kingdom and supplemented the background of the Secret Magic https://tannoorgrill.com/topics/experience-the-power-of-dr-oz-owgiokoe4-cbd-gummies-a-comprehensive-review-bvnl/ Society, he joined the Magic Network very early.Give us a few years, and any big city under the kingdom s rule will be more prosperous than this holy city Lin En shook his head.
Descending
Lynn shook her head. Although the windproof magic is easy to use, its working principle is to create a Losing Weight While Pregnant: Tips for a Healthy and Balanced Approach pointed cone shaped magic barrier in front of it that is constantly flowing to separate the airflow.
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How could she suddenly leave behind a daughter and then die It is difficult for low level ghost cultivators to produce offspring.The city lord and the ancestors of several major families came out one after another, just for a piece of low value ten thousand year realgar, and finally pushed the price to nearly thirty The sky high price of Wanming Stone.
I didn t expect you He is already a golden elixir monk.The third one said in a trembling voice, I have never left home alone.
Even the body of the spider killed by Qingyang was taken away by his companions, leaving no trace of the previous battle.There are not many types of auxiliary drugs and dispensing drugs.
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After leaving Jiuxian City, Qingyang refined all the materials he got into the Soul Calling Pill, and Kevin James Unleashed: 6 Proven Strategies Behind His Weight Loss Triumph got another 430 Soul Calling Pills.The corpse eating worms in front are better. After all, they occupy a favorable position.
Lord Crouching Tiger said Since it is the All Souls Association, all spirits https://tannoorgrill.com/reviews/otto-cbd-cider-review-a-t6ulbp-comprehensive-analysis-of-the-products-quality-and-benefits-ilphw-16pl/ in heaven and earth can certainly participate, and there is no restriction on identity.It seems that no one is willing to listen to his words as a general manager Not only does Fusong Ghost King oppose him, but others also don t take him seriously This is really unreasonable.
The golden elixir monk on the left said matter of factly.
Fuente: Vanguard.
