El anuncio reciente del presidente Donald Trump sobre los aranceles a las importaciones de acero, aluminio y una variedad de productos de consumo de China desató un frenesí de preocupación por el riesgo de una guerra comercial global. Sin embargo, Vanguard espera que el impacto económico directo por los nuevos aranceles sea mínimo. Creemos que la importancia real que tienen radica en las implicaciones más amplias y a plazo más largo para la política de comercio internacional.
Los aranceles en contexto
La administración de Trump anunció primero que iba a imponer aranceles de 25% a las importaciones de acero y 10% a las de aluminio. Estos productos en conjunto representan menos de 2% de las importaciones totales de Estados Unidos. Ese estimado aún es alto debido a que Canadá, México y otros aliados, que incluyen la Unión Europea, quedaron exentos temporalmente.
La administración anunció el 22 de marzo un paquete de aranceles y sanciones comerciales sobre los bienes importados de China. Al igual que los aranceles en el acero y el aluminio, estos impuestos probablemente afectarían solo a una pequeña porción del comercio bilateral entre las dos economías más grandes del mundo.
Para entender mejor cómo se vería una escalada de estas disputas, es útil considerar el intercambio comercial en un contexto histórico y global.
Los aranceles de Estados Unidos han estado disminuyendo desde la década de 1930 y se han mantenido por debajo de 5% durante más de cuatro décadas, tal como se muestra a continuación. De acuerdo con el último informe sobre aranceles de la Organización Mundial de Comercio, el promedio actual de aranceles en Estados Unidos es 3.5%, el segundo más bajo en el G20.
Nota: Los datos mostrados son anuales del año 1900 al año 2015.
Fuente: Comisión de Comercio Internacional de Estados Unidos
Aunque Estados Unidos tienen medidas comerciales establecidas que no son aranceles como las protecciones antidumping y por seguridad nacional, continúa siendo uno de los países menos proteccionistas del mundo junto con los miembros de la Unión Europea.
Algunos observadores del mercado hacen una extrapolación del cambio en la política de los aranceles para indicar el inicio de una guerra comercial, similar al ciclo vicioso que desencadenó la infame Ley de Aranceles de Smoot-Hawley de 1930, que redujo dramáticamente el flujo comercial y el crecimiento económico en los primeros años de la Gran Depresión. Dada la historia de reducir las barreras comerciales y conociendo los beneficios de la integración económica, Vanguard cree que es poco probable que la administración de los Estados Unidos modifique dramáticamente la política comercial debido al riesgo de alterar el crecimiento económico.
Disminuyen rápidamente los beneficios de un ligero aumento en los aranceles
Aunque damos una probabilidad baja a una guerra comercial, el análisis de Vanguard en el documento de investigación de los Asuntos macroeconómicos mundiales en 2017 («Situación comercial: es complicado») calculaba el impacto de diversas escaladas en las tensiones comerciales. Un ligero aumento en los aranceles tiene un beneficio marginal a corto plazo en la economía que los impone si no hay represalias. Sin embargo, estos beneficios se reducen rápidamente y se pueden compensar con los aranceles impuestos como represalias y la volatilidad del mercado.
Estos aumentos en los aranceles se compensarían entre sí y el resultado final podría ser precios más altos para el consumidor y crecimiento más bajo debido a una menor actividad comercial, lo que significaría una situación donde todos pierden.
Aunque es poco probable, un entorno de guerra comercial podría reducir el PIB de Estados Unidos en 1.7 puntos porcentuales y aumentar la inflación en 0.4 de un punto porcentual anualmente. En este caso, el impacto sería suficiente para obligar a la Reserva Federal de Estados Unidos a interrumpir su endurecimiento de las tasas de interés y a elegir entre suprimir el exceso de inflación y dar apoyo a un crecimiento bajo.
Los efectos secundarios de los aranceles podrían poner a Estados Unidos en una posición rezagada
Además de estas estimaciones del impacto directo en la economía estadounidense, una menor cooperación en el intercambio comercial durante los siguientes años podría dañar los flujos de inversión internacionales y poner a los Estados Unidos en una posición rezagada en vez de destacada en futuras alianzas económicas y políticas.
Los inversionistas pueden suponer de manera razonable que la retórica comercial continuará siendo una fuente de volatilidad durante 2018 a medida que la administración de Trump intenta establecer un nuevo rumbo en la política comercial sin desencadenar represalias de los socios comerciales globales de Estados Unidos.
La tecnología impulsará la industria del transporte aéreo del país y su primera muestra fue en el Aeropuerto Internacional de la Ciudad de México con Leo.
La participación del ferrocarril en el transporte de carga en México ha crecido de manera continua y ha alcanzado niveles comparables con varios de los grandes sistemas ferroviarios del mundo.
El año 2024 se presenta como un periodo emocionante y desafiante para la fabricación aditiva. Los avances tecnológicos, las tendencias sectoriales y la evolución en la gestión de la cadena de suministro están destinados a redefinir la industria, marcando un camino hacia un futuro donde la impresión 3D desempeñará un papel cada vez más crucial en la fabricación moderna.
he still had a sense of contempt in his heart. When Zhang Sheng talked about copyright broadcast fees, Gao Song was shocked.He lowered his head. He felt that there was something stuck in his throat and he couldn t get it out.
He looked at the tall, handsome, handsome young man on the screen who played basketball extremely well.Tang Wu also glanced at Zhang Sheng awkwardly, and said subconsciously Classmate Zhang, you are here too.
The average price is over 10,000, from 7,000 to 10,000.There are probably fools out there. Gao Yuan turned on the computer and saw the edited sample of Paging 1988 sent by his nephew.
In order to ensure that there are enough spiritual cultivators, all spiritual cultivators can bring apprentices, teach them skills and planting spells, and receive considerable rewards.Bang Fireworks exploded over Quan Lake again, and the fiery trees and silver flowers complemented the lotus lanterns on the lake.
The competition is over, I will definitely bring her to the master of Feiyan Pavilion to learn from it.Jiang Yuebai stood up and stretched his muscles, and saw under the bright moonlight an ancient city spanning a hundred miles The Pros and Cons of Over-the-Counter Appetite Suppressants for Weight Loss
of plains.
The monks were all jealous. Master, tell me, am I particularly powerful I can do the best in everything I do.She can control two complicated puppets and still play Xun music.
These cats have saved me many times. Once I was almost bitten by a venomous snake.It takes several times to break open a stone by using the spiritual energy, which is time consuming and labor intensive.
Watch the clouds roll and relax, watch the sun and the moon change, watch the grass grow and the orioles fly, watch the cows herding and the horses herding.Some weapon refiners have exquisite tools for refining magic, but they have difficulty refining a magic weapon in their lifetime.
There was no way to retreat
The green palace lantern shivered. Jiang Yuebai stepped closer and gradually saw the small characters on the lantern clearly.Zhao Fuyi frowned slightly, and Jiang Yuebai s eight formation disk flew into Zhao Fuyi s hand.
Mo Baichun said, Don t be fooled by the beautiful scenery in front of you.Ghost lanterns. Remember, I m afraid it s because you don t have enough strength and think the ghost lanterns are invincible.
Earthquake Technique boom The ground shook and the mountains shook.back. Li Jiuchuan was very patient, his eyes were always soft, and he waited quietly.
However, the barrage at this time
most of them were wondering why Lin Beichen was here and cleaning here The same doubt has been lingering in her heart all the way.Those people who were electrocuted multiple times in the news were The Benefits of KOS Sleep Gummy for a Restful Night's Sleep (aAzwk)
in places when they were electrocuted and the objects they were carrying were not enough to support The Secret Weapon in Weight Loss: Green Tea Lose Weight 2 Weeks
them from being electrocuted It s because they have been in positive and negative situations all the time.
No need. The five agents shook their heads in unison.Although I have never seen Lin Beichen on this mountain until now.
However, regardless of whether it is a matter of state of mind or not, this is always a direction.I didn t expect something like this to happen. I would have known better not to make such a joke with you.
He had no idea about the man s appearance and departure.If that is the case, shouldn t the next step be to temper the fire Satisfy Your Sweet Tooth and Lose Weight with Slim Candy Keto Gummies
element to the third realm as soon as possible Lin Beichen unconsciously said Touched his heart.
What kind of damage could a college student do with a wooden sword How is this even worth firing a shot at Are the people in this overseas organization too timid Wang Kai quickly looked at Lin Beichen and asked with concern You were not hit, were you Not injured No.The body language is very obvious
It tells you the way and makes way for you. It s time for you to go.
Qian Yi asked in confusion Old Hu, what s the matter Are you in a hurry Good news, there is a major breakthrough Hu Deguang didn t waste any time and said directly Finally, I found someone related to this overseas organization.Gah Seeing this, Lin Beichen pulled out the Thunder Tribulation Sword from his body.
Just a week ago, we were fully prepared to carry out the operation.The distance between the two is getting closer and closer.
He was already here, and there couldn t be anyone else besides himself He jerked forward so that his back was no longer being held up, and he looked like a runner taking off.This is the extra lightning strike wood. I will give it to you.
There were more and more fine bright lines, almost occupying the entire pupil At this time, another bolt of lightning Best Way to Lose Weight Without Heavy Exercise: 5 Effective Daily Routines
flashed across the sky.He realized that the other party was defrauding him and wanted to defraud him It will get harder and harder to follow from now on.
Senior Brother Zhu and the remaining two Huashan Sect disciples also stopped and looked at Ning Ling.But before leaving, someone still had a twinkle in his eye.
The Finding Restful Nights with Twine CBD Sleep Gummies: A Comprehensive Guide (AORnB)
whole thing looks short and lean. What kind of beast is this Looking at the beast in the iron cage, everyone in the Colosseum looked confused, obviously they had never seen such a beast before.Sun next to him. Mr. Sun is the master of the medicine hall, and all the elixirs in Ziwu Villa come from the medicine hall.
Not only did Murong Qianyue not help, but he even acquiesced.The old man in a black brocade robe walked directly onto the auction stage and stood in front of the long table.
Seeing that Luo Chen was only at the first class initial stage, although these people said nothing, there was a look of disdain in their eyes.Luo Chen looked at the four helmsmen of the Sanhe Gang.
When he was fished out, the man was already unconscious.Don t talk until you lie down. Kill With a roar, all the Jianghu warriors immediately charged towards the top barbarian army.
Uh. The young guard didn t expect Luo Chen to refuse so simply.Yun Mo moved out of the law enforcement hall. Li Ge was also a little scared, who called his father a law enforcement officer The master of the hall.
Fuente: Vanguard.
